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March 15/16 Severe Wx


kystormspotter

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First off excellent analysis from everyone in this thread, truly has been some great reading! Just really hoping to get in on the first boomer of the season tonight.. Cyclone should you decide to chase later, will be looking forward to your pics.

 

Not sure if I'm gonna go now looking at how it slowed down even more.  By the time I get down to west-central IL I'd only have about an hour's worth of daylight left.  Doesn't make for much of a fun chase.  Hate to pass an event up this close to home though.  Guess I'll see how things look when I get off at 4.  Gonna feel like a rat on a sinking ship all afternoon lol.

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I'm a bit surprised at the 10% tor given the moisture questions but 30% hail is quite reasonable in the ENH area. Looking farther northeast I think the hail threat could be respectable this evening including Chicago.

High res guidance is consistent on maintaining discrete or semi discrete structures with northeastward extent, which makes sense given the strong deep layer shear and veering profile.

BUFKIT soundings for ORD on much of the guidance also showing pretty fat CAPE in the -10 to -30 C hail zone this evening of near or above 500 j/kg, owing to the very steep midlevel lapse rates. In addition, freezing levels/wet bulb zero heights will be low and supportive of efficient hail production in more intense storms.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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I'm a bit surprised at the 10% tor given the moisture questions but 30% hail is quite reasonable in the ENH area. Looking farther northeast I think the hail threat could be respectable this evening including Chicago.

High res guidance is consistent on maintaining discrete or semi discrete structures with northeastward extent, which makes sense given the strong deep layer shear and veering profile.

BUFKIT soundings for ORD on much of the guidance also showing pretty fat CAPE in the -10 to -30 C hail zone this evening of near or above 500 j/kg, owing to the very steep midlevel lapse rates. In addition, freezing levels/wet bulb zero heights will be low and supportive of efficient hail production in more intense storms.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

 

can't wait

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Dr. Forbes just raised the TORCON to 6

 

TODAY 3/15
Severe thunderstorms develop in late afternoon in southeast IA,
northeast MO and spread across IL, west and south-central IN
by evening and possibly develop in the evening in west KY and west TN. TORCON - 6 central and northwest IL; 4 southeast IN, northeast MO, south IL, northeast IL, west and south-central IN; 2 to 3 west KY and west TN.

 

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Dr. Forbes just raised the TORCON to 6

 

He also has the entire east half of Illinois (including Chicago) and west half of Indiana at 5 for tonight.

 

TONIGHT 3/15-16

Severe thunderstorms in east IL, west IN and possibly extreme southeast WI may turn into a squall line by midnight, moving across IN into west OH and possibly into south MI. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may develop in west and central KY, west and middle TN, north MS, northwest AL. TORCON - 5 east IL, west IN; 3 east IN, west KY, west TN; 2 rest of area
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Strongly recommend east of the Mississippi River for a couple reasons. First the logistics is better. Who wants to worry about a river crossing during the chase? 

 

Pre-frontal trough is forecast ahead of the cold front. I would chase the intersection of the prefrontal trough and warm front / outflow boundary. I would not bite on any early cold front cells. Wait for 1-2 to go on the prefrontal trough farther east. HRRR suggests a right moving beast on the prefrontal trough and warm front intersection, well into central Illinois and way east of the River.

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