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Central PA - Early/Mid December 2016

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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19 hours ago, pawatch said:

Mag I'm reading your posts and thank you for taking the time to give us your thoughts.

I agree forum should be picking up here.

I'm just kinda surprised there isn't more action in here now haha, I mean we're looking at two events in the next 3 days that are going to be potential snow/wintry precip producers for at least some of the region and that's before the cold even comes in later in the week. And there's likely to be storm potential after that while we are in the colder regime for at least the D6-10 range. It certainly is no wall to wall 60ºF December like last year. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

I've been out of the country since Nov 22 and just got home today.

I miss much? Anything to watch this week?

The wave of precipitation moving through tonight is likely to focus on the northern half of PA with snow potential as weak WAA just enough to likely keep the southern tier mainly rain..although Sus Valley may start as some mixed precip. Accums in the north and some of the central ridges could be of the T-2 variety. The slug of precip moving through is fairly decent, but surface temps are marginal.. and will likely stifle accumulations in any area that gets a period of steadier snow. 

The Tuesday system coming out of the gulf may give the H-burg area a better shot at snow, but the setup is such a borderline one that it's a tossup. We have a dying primary and some secondary coastal development coming up that should send a slug of heavier precip up through PA Tuesday. With the actual cold air off to the west still, we have a setup where the temps are extremely marginal. Only a difference of a couple degrees amongst the models from about 850mb on down could mean rain, a mixture of both rain and snow, or an actual wet snow paste bomb of several inches. If the Euro is to be believed.. and it has been steadfast the last few days in being the coldest solution, it gives some of the Sus Valley a chance at a few inches of snow. Further into central PA it turns into a higher end advisory event for places like UNV and potentially a borderline warning event for the north-central. The GFS has been warm, relegating any snows to the northern tier. The NAM has been going a bit toward the Euro, with the 0z run showing snow in a good portion of PA... but not the robust accums the Euro has had. Either way, focus is likely to be on the north-central with the potential for accumulating snowfall. This event is def one to keep an eye on for possible mischief. Much colder air takes over the eastern US later this week and should establish itself through at least the day 6-10 timeframe. 

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canderson

canderson

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The wave of precipitation moving through tonight is likely to focus on the northern half of PA with snow potential as weak WAA just enough to likely keep the southern tier mainly rain..although Sus Valley may start as some mixed precip. Accums in the north and some of the central ridges could be of the T-2 variety. The slug of precip moving through is fairly decent, but surface temps are marginal.. and will likely stifle accumulations in any area that gets a period of steadier snow. 

The Tuesday system coming out of the gulf may give the H-burg area a better shot at snow, but the setup is such a borderline one that it's a tossup. We have a dying primary and some secondary coastal development coming up that should send a slug of heavier precip up through PA Tuesday. With the actual cold air off to the west still, we have a setup where the temps are extremely marginal. Only a difference of a couple degrees amongst the models from about 850mb on down could mean rain, a mixture of both rain and snow, or an actual wet snow paste bomb of several inches. If the Euro is to be believed.. and it has been steadfast the last few days in being the coldest solution, it gives some of the Sus Valley a chance at a few inches of snow. Further into central PA it turns into a higher end advisory event for places like UNV and potentially a borderline warning event for the north-central. The GFS has been warm, relegating any snows to the northern tier. The NAM has been going a bit toward the Euro, with the 0z run showing snow in a good portion of PA... but not the robust accums the Euro has had. Either way, focus is likely to be on the north-central with the potential for accumulating snowfall. This event is def one to keep an eye on for possible mischief. Much colder air takes over the eastern US later this week and should establish itself through at least the day 6-10 timeframe. 

Thank you! 

 

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djr5001

djr5001

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Light easterly flow tomorrow could make some areas east of the mountains interesting at times.  Just like it was already mentioned, very borderline set up that we could see a wintry mix with p-types changing several times over the course of the event.  With the easterly flow, however, it would not surprise me one bit if temperatures around Harrisburg struggle to climb above the mid 30s.  Certainly a kind of set up where sunset tomorrow evening could be the degree or two difference that make some areas (especially bridges) slick. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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4 hours ago, Jmister said:

Looks like there is the typical NAM/EURO vs. GFS for precip totals in this upcoming event tomorrow. The NAM and EURO are outputting about twice the QPF as the GFS. And for what it's worth, the NAM is pretty cold throughout the area...

12z hires NAM snowfall :

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif

 

34 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Light easterly flow tomorrow could make some areas east of the mountains interesting at times.  Just like it was already mentioned, very borderline set up that we could see a wintry mix with p-types changing several times over the course of the event.  With the easterly flow, however, it would not surprise me one bit if temperatures around Harrisburg struggle to climb above the mid 30s.  Certainly a kind of set up where sunset tomorrow evening could be the degree or two difference that make some areas (especially bridges) slick. 

Precip rates are likely to be an important factor in this marginal setup tomorrow. I would have high confidence in a complete changeover to snow for a lot of our region (including Sus Valley) if we get a solid slug of moderate to heavier precip.. which given the source of the storm (Gulf states) seems like a distinct possibility. With lack of a really distinct southerly push aloft from the dying primary and secondary development on the coast, heavier precip would likely cool the marginal column enough for snow. Temps aloft are essentially isothermal from about 700mb on down to 925mb, being within a degree or two celsius of freezing. Lighter precip ala the GFS might not be enough to cool it and thus provide more of a rain/snow mix or relegate most flakes to the north central. In that case, even if say some of the central locations have mainly snow, marginal surface temps a few degrees above freezing may limit any accumulations.  So my worry is if we get the heavier precip and it cools the column to allow all snow for some spots, it's liable to make things a mess quickly with a rapid accumulation of a few to several inches of wet snow with heavy rates. I'm most concerned with this scenario in the north central but AOO/UNV/IPT and some of the Sus Valley places like MDT could have this happen. Def something to watch as if the snowier situation occurs, it could catch a lot of folks off guard being the first event of the year. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Lots of mid 20s temps in the central third or so of the state currently per mesowest obs. About 26ºF here attm. If initial precip arrives later this morning in the liquid form, would definitely have some concerns of rain freezing on certain cold surfaces or an outright freezing rain scenario in the south central I-99 corridor and somewhat east of there. That region likes to stay cold at the surface in these setups and we have pretty weak sun this time of the year. HRRR starting to see the precip mixing in the central and northern counties as the heavier stuff arrives with evaporative cooling aloft. 

Continues to look like a tough call with marginal column temps but looks like most of the Sus Valley should avoid a lot of wintry precip, but there's liable to be some mixing at the onset at least. North central from UNV on north still most likely to see accumulating snowfall of at least a few inches while the rest of the central third of the state (mainly between turnpike and 80 could see snow of the T-2 variety. 

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sauss06

sauss06

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Good to see the area getting in on some winter.  Sounds like a normalish December shaping up.  I'll take it.  

for those that get in on the white gold today....enjoy.  

 

Nut

 

i have 7 more days to work and then i'm off 2 weeks. It would be nice to catch some "white Gold" when i'm off and not have to worry about its removal. 

It currently has the its about ready to snow look outside. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

i have 7 more days to work and then i'm off 2 weeks. It would be nice to catch some "white Gold" when i'm off and not have to worry about its removal. 

It currently has the its about ready to snow look outside. 

Wow.  Sounds like you picked the right time.  Mood flakes, cold beer and family around the holidays.  Life is good.

Enjoy my friend.

Nut

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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4 minutes ago, basehore said:

would love for this to pan out.  I'm up at my cabin in tioga county hunting.  Already had about two inches sunday night, but most of that is gone.

Where in Tioga? My place is in Gaines.

Happy Hunting.

 

yeah, its just a model, but digital snow is better than no snow at all.  Looking at NAM, dynamic cooling is gonna have to help to make these totals get close.  I think true NC and into NE PA could have the most fun w/ this one.  Heck, I'd be glad to hear pingers on glass right now.

Nut

 

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