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Central PA - Early/Mid December 2016


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17 minutes ago, canderson said:

It hasn't rained here for three hours, at least.

 

1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

1.3" so far. I think canderson's 2.1" for MDT might end up being very, very close. We'll see what comes later today and tonight. 

Its has mostly just been misty here in Harrisburg. I was looking at rainfall reports from Cumberland County and the higher numbers seem to be in the western part of the County. But Mikes right, later today/night we could get into the heavy stuff. 

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

it went all around us. We had rain overnight, but not much. 

I need it to not rain Tomorrow morning, can anyone make that happen?

I can try ;)

Anyway, didn't fully live up to its billing down here. Around 2.5-3" compared to the forecasted 6". Parents in Delaware got rocked though. Around 8" yesterday. That easterly fetch was no joke. I love the cooler weather though. I'll take it. 

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We got probably half as much as expected around here (between 1-2").. a beneficial rainfall but it didn't get much response from the local rivers/streams. The heavier rains ended up setting up on either side of C-PA for most of the evening yesterday.

Attention likely shifts toward Hurricane Matthew next week as it's progged to turn NW/N out of the Caribbean and track into the Bahamas. So far it's mainly modeled to stay just off the East Coast and eventually turn away but it's pretty close.. and there is several days for this to undoubtedly change. Given the track and the fact that it's already currently going through a rapid intensification phase, this could end up being a very strong hurricane on either side of it's potential impact with Cuba. It will be tracking through some of the best TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) fields in the Atlantic basin. Speed of the system will be important, as a faster system will get in front of a frontal system progged for later next week and potentially allow for the storm to come in closer and/or impact the East Coast.. along with potential rainfall from interacting with the frontal system. Lots of moving parts with respect to figuring out where Matthew eventually goes, but something to keep an eye on next week along the Eastern Seaboard. 

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Today's 12z GFS op (backed up by the ensembles) is an ugly look for about the entire eastern seaboard...takes the center of Matthew and essentially traces the shoreline from the NC/SC line all the way up until it runs right through southern New England. This solution also gets at least the eastern half of Penn into some decent rains associated directly with the western half of the storm as well as some frontal interaction. It's a pretty nasty solution. Euro/Canadian has been maintaining an OTS solution (12z Euro comes much closer to coast) making for a bit of a model situation ala Hurricane Joaquin. 

Given ridging progged in the northern Atlantic, the storm probably doesn't fully curve away even if it does miss the East Coast. The Euro has another weak system that develops to Matthew's east/northeast that might help pull it away from the coast in that scenario. But either way with the ridging, the storm is probably going to get pulled poleward in response to the approaching trough coming from the midwest. Matthew may not directly impact us when all is set and done, but it could help drive a trough and our first actual cold shot of the fall into the area. Much to sort out with this in the coming days and lots of lead time yet. 

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38 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Today's 12z GFS op (backed up by the ensembles) is an ugly look for about the entire eastern seaboard...takes the center of Matthew and essentially traces the shoreline from the NC/SC line all the way up until it runs right through southern New England. This solution also gets at least the eastern half of Penn into some decent rains associated directly with the western half of the storm as well as some frontal interaction. It's a pretty nasty solution. Euro/Canadian has been maintaining an OTS solution (12z Euro comes much closer to coast) making for a bit of a model situation ala Hurricane Joaquin. 

Given ridging progged in the northern Atlantic, the storm probably doesn't fully curve away even if it does miss the East Coast. The Euro has another weak system that develops to Matthew's east/northeast that might help pull it away from the coast in that scenario. But either way with the ridging, the storm is probably going to get pulled poleward in response to the approaching trough coming from the midwest. Matthew may not directly impact us when all is set and done, but it could help drive a trough and our first actual cold shot of the fall into the area. Much to sort out with this in the coming days and lots of lead time yet. 

I think there is definitely plenty of uncertainty in how the upstream trough amplifies, given that the energy has yet to emerge onshore from the Pacific. Of course there are also inherent uncertainties with any tropical cyclone track at 7 days out, not to mention all of the usual intensity forecast uncertainty. I do agree though that it will be something to watch; the 12z GFS gives us some decent rains associated with an inverted trough extending from Matthew.

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Going to be interesting to see what effect Matthew has on us.

I picked up 1.96" of needed rain yesterday.

 

models are their usual self I see.

The latest 01/00Z run of the EC now carries the hurricane well to
the northeast of the Bahamas Friday and on a steady course to the
Northeast toward Bermuda by the middle of next weekend. With such
drastic differences between the GFS/GEFS and the EC 5-7 days out,
we`ll continue to play the middle of the road and note just
scattered showers with the passage of a more definitive northern
stream shortwave and sfc cold front late next week or early next
weekend.

 

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28 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I think i'll tell my wife and daughter this weekend isn't the best for a girls weekend in Ocean City Maryland :)

 

anyone have thoughts/opinions on Matthews impact on us. 

I wouldn't bet on much in the way of wind here, at least not with the current guidance basically tracking Matthew along the SE coast. The majority of the precipitation looks to be induced by the mid-level trough over the Great Lakes interacting with the moisture plume associated with Matthew. Of course, if guidance continues to shift the forecast track NW, some of the southeastern parts of our subforum may be impacted more directly by the system. The system will also likely be undergoing ET transition by the time it is closest to us, perhaps spreading out the wind field some and weakening.

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15 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

I wouldn't bet on much in the way of wind here, at least not with the current guidance basically tracking Matthew along the SE coast. The majority of the precipitation looks to be induced by the mid-level trough over the Great Lakes interacting with the moisture plume associated with Matthew. Of course, if guidance continues to shift the forecast track NW, some of the southeastern parts of our subforum may be impacted more directly by the system. The system will also likely be undergoing ET transition by the time it is closest to us, perhaps spreading out the wind field some and weakening.

Thank you. I'm suppose to finishing up a roof this weekend, so i don't want to be stripping it off and it rains.

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6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

The cone has definitely shifted west over the past 24 hours. For what it's worth, Eric Horst was saying yesterday there was a 40% chance of some effect from Matthew here, now he's saying about a 70% chance of some rain and wind. 

fun tracking the next couple days

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