Eskimo Joe Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Yeah, forecast high (as of now anyway) for my location is 37 degrees. It would be tough to accumulate at that temperature even in mid January, let alone April. Too bad it's not going to be 22 like it was when I was in Albany this past Monday. At that temp, the snow I ran into accumulated on EVERYTHING despite being April. I only care about the tree branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Yeah, forecast high (as of now anyway) for my location is 37 degrees. It would be tough to accumulate at that temperature even in mid January, let alone April. Too bad it's not going to be 22 like it was when I was in Albany this past Monday. At that temp, the snow I ran into accumulated on EVERYTHING despite being April. not sure it gets that high in Tamaqua, Hazleton, Mount Pocono, the ridges surrounding the river/creek valleys, etc. in the valley cities (Wilkes Barre, Bloom, Allentown, Sunbury/Selingsgrove), mid to upper 30's and a sloppy/slushy mess will be the story. it'll look a lot worse in the air than on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I'm not anticipating accumulation, just enough crappy weather to hurt early trout day for kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Would love to see a surprise paste bomb of 3" - 5" along the Mason-Dixon counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 CTP isn't bullish. Tonight Rain and snow likely after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Northwest wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday Night A chance of snow before 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 CTP isn't bullish. Tonight Rain and snow likely after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Northwest wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday Night A chance of snow before 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Too Funny 20 miles from you to the east they are better: Tonight A chance of rain and snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow likely, mainly before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 18Z NAM brings the precip at 15z (10am) pretty heavy stuff....won't do much on the roads but will look pretty coming down. Edit: Between 7-10am for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 Obs first...Woke up to another half inch or so of snow on the ground here first thing this morning. This weekend will be the low point in this rather significant setback to spring highlighted by a potent shortwave throwing down a widespread light to moderate snowfall across the commonwealth tonight into tomorrow. Funny I mentioned in my previous post last week that it's hard to get these clipper type lows running south enough to put a swath across PA this late in the year but here we are a week later. I see CTP has extended the advisories on a swath right through the heart of the state Gonna be several variables in play as far as accumulations are concerned.. as is usually the case in these real late season events. The western half of so of PA will see a good part of this event during the nighttime and early morning daylight hours which will help with accumulations. Rates will dictate what can stick during the day and I feel this dynamic system will produce some periods of heavy snow. If it snows hard enough it won't matter that it's April 9th. Surface temps will additionally be pretty marginal especially in lower elevations (mid 30s in lighter snows) but higher ground should stick around or just below the freezing mark (with much higher ground like the Laurels and central ridges above 1800' or so probably in the upper 20s). Those few to several degrees can make a big difference as far as what is realized on the ground as atmospherically this figures to be a high ratio event. Looking at some cross sections from models, the ideal -12 to -18C layer is running roughly from about 800mb to slightly above the 700mb layer (a hat tip to how impressive this late season trough already is in it's own regard that it's that low). 700 and 850 Vertical velocities are progged to be pretty impressive... particularly the 700mb level. But looks to be plenty of lift present throughout that ideal layer. I'm sure the mets in here that have the good BUFKIT software could elaborate further. Probably could have been a decent swath of warning snows if this were Jan/Feb. Still, I wouldn't be overly surprised to see some isolated 6-8" amounts in high ground along the swath of best snowfall. But this looks like a widespread 2-3" event on average with 1-2" in the lowest elevations/south central and an elevation dependent 2-5" through the heart of C-PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Nice write-up MAG. Thanks for that! As for the NWS forecasts, for me, they're saying about a half inch overnight (dawn) timeframe, then 1-3 during the heart of the day, with an additional half inch during the evening. That reads out to a "possible" 2-4 inches total. I'm at 825' in elevation, but I've noticed that most times, that elevation helps me very little as the best accumulations seem to happen around here at 1,200' and higher. It's one of the reasons why McAdoo, just 7 miles north of me would have 4-6 inches. while I had mostly rain with a half inch of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 One of the things I find fascinating is why no one believes the snowfall output from the NAM and GFS. The past 6 consecutive runs the NAM has shown MDT with 8" upwards to 11" and the GFS has had over 7". I understand the whole thing about time of year, time of day, etc, but to discount the consistent output by 75% seems wrong. With sub-530 heights in the heart of this trough there should be plenty of opportunity for decent action. I will go out on a limb (if you want to call it that) and predict that MDT / LSV sees more than is presently forecast, AND, the high temperatures (if they occur during the afternoon and not at midnight tonight) do not exceed 35 degrees until the storm winds down, if even then. The majority of the snowfall will occur with temps of 32.0 degrees +/- 1 degree F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Nice write-up MAG. Thanks for that! As for the NWS forecasts, for me, they're saying about a half inch overnight (dawn) timeframe, then 1-3 during the heart of the day, with an additional half inch during the evening. That reads out to a "possible" 2-4 inches total. I'm at 825' in elevation, but I've noticed that most times, that elevation helps me very little as the best accumulations seem to happen around here at 1,200' and higher. It's one of the reasons why McAdoo, just 7 miles north of me would have 4-6 inches. while I had mostly rain with a half inch of accumulation. that is always one of the biggest challenges of forecasting eastern PA, or PA in general. when you compare distances for snow levels out west to back east, a couple hundred foot difference is small potatoes (between 5kft and 5.5 kft isn't much different for the forecast). but in PA, only 300-500 ft in elevation change can mean the big difference between getting clobbered and just getting slushed out. it's enough to be a royal PITA if you're not careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Latest GFS is a Route 322 jackpot with 3-6 inches of snow running from State College area down through the LSV. I agree that the short range & Hi -Res models will handle this storm the best from here on out. I just want 2.1 inches at MDT to hit the 40 inch mark for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 My wife is n State College for work and should be leaving around 1 p.m. tomorrow. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Gearing up for what could be our second biggest event of the season in the second week of April, gotta love it! Let it snow...for those of us crazy people that still want it at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 CTP just hoisted a bunch of WWAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 York cooling fast. 40/24...37 here in New Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 2-4" inches WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 My wife is n State College for work and should be leaving around 1 p.m. tomorrow. Ugh. Roads will be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 This is only going to be a pain in the a$$ if you have to get up for work at 5:00am and live on a hilltop. I'm just grasping at straws to try and save this pitiful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 This is only going to be a pain in the a$$ if you have to get up for work at 5:00am and live on a hilltop. I'm just grasping at straws to try and save this pitiful winter. I'm sorry, but if you're south of 80, you have no right to call it pitiful, IMO. You guys still pulled AOA normal snowfal and had one of your biggest snowstorms ever. We had one of our worst winters ever in the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 It will be fun type of snow in LSV for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 I'm sorry, but if you're south of 80, you have no right to call it pitiful, IMO. You guys still pulled AOA normal snowfal and had one of your biggest snowstorms ever. We had one of our worst winters ever in the north. I have to agree with NEPA here. While I was lucky enough to get in on a big chunk of the blizzard, he (and Williamsport) missed out on it. Some places up that way DID NOT even get to double digits for total snowfall for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Everyone has and is entitled to their opinion of what makes a winter good or poor, but I personally would never call a winter here pitiful with above average totals no matter how it came. That's like making $20/hour and complaining to my coworker who's making $12. Northern PA HAS had a pitiful winter...down here...no way. My opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Everyone has and is entitled to their opinion of what makes a winter good or poor, but I personally would never call a winter here pitiful with above average totals no matter how it came. That's like making $20/hour and complaining to my coworker who's making $12. Northern PA HAS had a pitiful winter...down here...no way. My opinion. I agree! In my opinion, in my back yard the past winter was a great winter, even if (and because) most of the snow came in one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 We broke the all-time snowstorm record by 6". This was the best winter ever*. * OK Feb 2010 was off the chains awesome too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Everyone has and is entitled to their opinion of what makes a winter good or poor, but I personally would never call a winter here pitiful with above average totals no matter how it came. That's like making $20/hour and complaining to my coworker who's making $12. Northern PA HAS had a pitiful winter...down here...no way. My opinion.I agree. Nice snowy Saturday coming and then bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 9, 2016 Author Share Posted April 9, 2016 Gearing up for what could be our second biggest event of the season in the second week of April, gotta love it! Let it snow...for those of us crazy people that still want it at least Well heck it wouldn't take too much overachieving to make it the biggest of the season for State College haha. UNV only got what about 4" or so from Jan 23? Speaking of the Centre region, it seems that the Seven Mountains part of eastern Centre County and adjacent counties are in a good spot for maybe seeing some of the highest totals and potentially warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Well heck it wouldn't take too much overachieving to make it the biggest of the season for State College haha. UNV only got what about 4" or so from Jan 23? Speaking of the Centre region, it seems that the Seven Mountains part of eastern Centre County and adjacent counties are in a good spot for maybe seeing some of the highest totals and potentially warning criteria. I actually don't even know a good link to find official snowfall reports anymore, do you? CTP used to have an easy to find link a few years back but I dunno anymore. I measured a hair over 5" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Not too impressed with the radar right now don't forget to try keep expectations low... always more fun that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 9, 2016 Author Share Posted April 9, 2016 Picked up a quick 1.1" on the deck and grassy surfaces from this initial intense line of snowfall that just moved through. Definitely of the paste bomb variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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