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Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion

AlaskaETC

By AlaskaETC,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mattie g said:

No! SAI is tied to the rate of increase in snowcover in Siberia during the month of October. If there's a lot of snow to start the month, then it's likely that there won't be much room for a greater increase!

PANIC!!!!!

lol- I've pretty much stopped caring about the snowcover stuff. It's proven fruitless last couple of years. The connection is there but after back to back busts of sorts I'm not buying into anything. 

We're on a +AO/NAO heater so I'll go with that for now. 

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das

das

Posted
Posted
On 8/30/2016 at 9:49 AM, Bob Chill said:

lol- I've pretty much stopped caring about the snowcover stuff. It's proven fruitless last couple of years. The connection is there but after back to back busts of sorts I'm not buying into anything. 

We're on a +AO/NAO heater so I'll go with that for now. 

I can't help but care as Weathafella's "And we begin..." thread is one of my most anticipated each year if only in that it signals the glorious end to infernal summer.  

 

Lots of time/resource assets are pouring into snow and ice cover remote sensing and research these days.  Typical macro analysis suggests that there's something there to keep the smart people interested and $$ flowing into tools and research.

 

NatIce and Rutgers are still well funded:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0

Dr. Romanov's excellent hi-rez multisensor snow algorithm/map at NESDIS STAR gets better and better (nice, updated algorithm basis doc here: Global_Auto_Snow-Ice_4km_ATBD 2.pdf)

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/multisensor_global_snow_ice.html

ESA's GlobSnow, operated by the Finnish Met Institute, is now online with great, hi-rez data available

http://www.globsnow.info/index.php?page=Data

NSIDC has turned out data from just about every space-based sensor possible

http://nsidc.org/data/search/#keywords=snow/sortKeys=score,,desc/facetFilters=%7B%7D/pageNumber=1/itemsPerPage=25

...and, of course, NOAA's NOHRSC continues to improve:

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html

 

While SAI may or may not prove to have value, there will be interesting things to know with all this data and attention.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Bumping because saw a few references (DT on twitter was one I believe) that the la nina watch is canceled and it is looking like a neutral ENSO for this winter. Can't remember if that was is good, bad, or mixed for us if it goes down like that.

 

Definitely mixed. There are very few neutral after mod/strong Nino. 66-67 was great and 83-84 was sucky for DC, notsogood for BWI but decent for IAD. Temp problems along i95 I assume. 2 years doesn't tell much though. 

Personally, I would prefer neutral. Nina's can be a real pain with storm tracks. Neutrals are really hard to guess at long leads. We won't know what large scale patterns will persist. Once thing I have noticed the last couple months is that seasonal guidance really likes the -EPO/aleutian low idea for at least portions of the winter.  CANSips likes Jan and CFS likes Dec for being the coldest relative to normal. Lately the CFS has been showing a front loaded winter (DJ) for colder than normal temps. 

 

The latest 12 run average for the CFS is showing a really wintry Dec for the east. This is a good look but who knows.  I'm really rooting for what the CFS is showing. Just be cold and have an event or 2 of any size in Dec and it will keep ledge jumping to a minimum until we torch in Feb. 

 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_3.png

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

It is a good look and it's been showing variations for about a month. January looked the best for a while and now Dec. I'm obviously not banking on a damn thing but seeing consistency in a good look vs a disaster is always preferred. 

 

CANSips likes Jan:

cansips_z500a_nhem_5.png

 

The interesting thing is they both agree on the -EPO/+PNA combo. We can work with that. You have to wonder if we get another version of 13-14 for a period this winter. Seems like the -EPO is being as persistent as the +NAO. 

 

We got lucky in a lot of ways in 13-14. No blocking but a ton of good tracks. We fell on the right side of the gradient. I just want some chances and an early start. More fun that way. And let Xmas be cold (snow or no snow). Warm December holidays are the wurst. 

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thunderbolt

thunderbolt

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It is a good look and it's been showing variations for about a month. January looked the best for a while and now Dec. I'm obviously not banking on a damn thing but seeing consistency in a good look vs a disaster is always preferred. 

 

CANSips likes Jan:

cansips_z500a_nhem_5.png

 

The interesting thing is they both agree on the -EPO/+PNA combo. We can work with that. You have to wonder if we get another version of 13-14 for a period this winter. Seems like the -EPO is being as persistent as the +NAO. 

 

We got lucky in a lot of ways in 13-14. No blocking but a ton of good tracks. We fell on the right side of the gradient. I just want some chances and an early start. More fun that way. And let Xmas be cold (snow or no snow). Warm December holidays are the wurst. 

hey Bob I read on a different forum that the Euro monthly came out today and it looks very similar to the year 2013 / 14 with the ridge setting up  off the west coast and a positive NAO

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It is a good look and it's been showing variations for about a month. January looked the best for a while and now Dec. I'm obviously not banking on a damn thing but seeing consistency in a good look vs a disaster is always preferred. 

 

CANSips likes Jan:

cansips_z500a_nhem_5.png

 

The interesting thing is they both agree on the -EPO/+PNA combo. We can work with that. You have to wonder if we get another version of 13-14 for a period this winter. Seems like the -EPO is being as persistent as the +NAO. 

 

We got lucky in a lot of ways in 13-14. No blocking but a ton of good tracks. We fell on the right side of the gradient. I just want some chances and an early start. More fun that way. And let Xmas be cold (snow or no snow). Warm December holidays are the wurst. 

A bunch of folks have discussed recently how, while the -NAO is obviously important to us, the -EPO/+PNA is that much more of a driver for exciting winter weather around here. I agree that it's not fool's gold to look for a '13-'14-style period at some point if that were to come to fruition. I'm liking the indication of positive heights over Greenland, as well...though I'm not falling for a -NAO until it actually happens again!

Yeah...a cold December - especially Christmas - with shots at snow, and I'll be a happy camper. Roll that into January and I'm good with a February furnace.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

hey Bob I read on a different forum that the Euro monthly came out today and it looks very similar to the year 2013 / 14 with the ridge setting up  off the west coast and a positive NAO

I don't know what your location is but the thing that saved the MA region was actually the scandinavian ridge bridge connecting with the poleward epo. It helped act as a quasi block and suppress the PV much further southward than is typical in any winter. This pushed the gradient off shore and allowed some storms to track underneath us instead of over or to the west of us. Typically, a +nao/-epo isn't a favorable storm track. 

13-14.JPG

 

The closest analog I can find to 13-14 is 93-94. That year didn't feature a scand ridge and our area kinda sucked. Nickle and dimes + some ice and below climo snow. PV mean placement was closer to Hudson Bay so we ended up on the wrong side more often than not. I don't know what the euro seasonal maps look like but if they don't show some ridging near scand then a +NAO won't do it. We'll end up with wet storms followed by cold air...rinse/repeat. The PV in 13-14 really dealt us a nice hand here. It just had a knack of being in the right place at the right time. 

 

93-94.JPG

 

I'm just tossing out some thoughts though. Where the chips fall is months away. Hopefully mid-late Nov can provide some early clues IRT persistence in the HLs. I was never sold on a Nina. Numerically it looked better than visually. The state of the Pac right now looks nothing like an incoming Nina. That little ribbon of BN anoms can't force the LW NH circulation IMHO. We'll see where we are in 2-3 months. I'm sorta expecting things to warm near the EQ and not cool. Even if it cools, the real estate needs to greatly increase. There's still a bunch of leftover warmth to contend with. 

 

anomnight.9.8.2016.gif

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

New article on the QBO for this winter from science magazine. It's pretty good if you guys want to read up on it: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe

Two things that stuck out to me:

1) A "dependable" cycle of 22-36 months.  36 is 163% of 22.  So the cycle can vary by 63%.  Dependably.

2) "Re-write the textbooks".  Textbooks written on something observed for 56 years? Is that a serious comment?

I quit after those two.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The closest analog I can find to 13-14 is 93-94. That year didn't feature a scand ridge and our area kinda sucked. Nickle and dimes + some ice and below climo snow. PV mean placement was closer to Hudson Bay so we ended up on the wrong side more often than not. I don't know what the euro seasonal maps look like but if they don't show some ridging near scand then a +NAO won't do it. We'll end up with wet storms followed by cold air...rinse/repeat. The PV in 13-14 really dealt us a nice hand here. It just had a knack of being in the right place at the right time. 

I get the overall point of how snow lovers may view 93/94, but the phrase "some ice" made me chuckle. 2011 had some tornados and 2005 had some hurricanes :) 

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I get the overall point of how snow lovers may view 93/94, but the phrase "some ice" made me chuckle. 2011 had some tornados and 2005 had some hurricanes :) 

 

Lol- truth. I didn't live here in 93-94. I just quickly looked up some events. Digging deeper it looks like ice was a highlight.  I'd be fine with a foot of ice this winter. ;)

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol- truth. I didn't live here in 93-94. I just quickly looked up some events. Digging deeper it looks like ice was a highlight.  I'd be fine with a foot of ice this winter. ;)

Quit bragging Bob. It sucked big-time around here in 93/94. Several events that were supposed to start as snow with 2-4" or 3-6"+ before a changeover.  In reality,  a half an hour of snow, 4 hours of sleet, then hours of zr. Boston got around 100". Before 14/15, it was Weatherfella's favorite winter. Nuff said. And "yes", I'm still bitter! 

p.s. My best all snow event was 3".

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Redmorninglight

Redmorninglight

Posted
Posted

93-94 was epic in northern mid Atlantic and NE. I was a junior at Ramapo College in north Jersey and I think it snowed every Wednesday. Even up there every storm had some taint. My rear wheel drive car sat under a glacier almost three feet thick for a month. Lol. I think we hit -12f one morning with a high of 9f.  There was a big thaw in Jan but it just made streets worse after it all refroze.

Point is if I lived at my current latitude, 38.9, I would have had a terribly different experience that year. 14-15 was way better here than 93-94. 

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