WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, typo. Jan 2011. I don't share the same sentiment at all with 10-11 being better. 10-11 sucked in my yard. Total gut punch boxing day followed up by a drip fest slush bomb with mud underneath in Jan and it was over after that. A 30" blizzard destroys anything 10-11 served up. Well the old memory ain't what it used to be, but off the top of my head........ We had a nice little 2"+ snow the week before Christmas, we barely missed on Christmas morning as the best snow slid to our south, we barely missed Boxing Day, there was a good storm around Jan 7 that looked great until the morning of and then most of the good stuff went further to our north, we had the late Jan good storm, we had a good storm in early Feb that let a wedge of warm air slip in and we got mostly sleet while Hagerstown got about 6"+. Of course, that's probably leaving out some, and it applies only to my location, but for me that's a ton more action than I saw last year. I literally can't think of an event other than the biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 3 hours ago, mappy said: if i could take a repeat of 13/14 every year, id be happy You mean if our climate suddenly flipped to the average climate of northern Vermont. Lol. I was up in pa that winter (it was very good there too) but I could see that being my favorite if I had to pick because it was the best mix of cold and consistent spread out snow events from early December to mid March plus the feb blockbuster for places northwest of the cities. 2010 had a bit more snow overall but I would take 2014 for those reasons listed above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Oh don't get me started on that one. I have a hunch that this year the SAI is going to be correct. But I haven't been less interested in the SAI since it first became "important". lol Here's my call for winter: Dec-Jan normal to below normal temps with an early end to winter temps sometime before the middle of Feb March snow will be unlikely. Airports will book 75-100% of climo snow. No 12" storms Higher than normal potential for a decent ice storm or 2 Higher than normal potential for snow sometime around xmas-new years We will have the notso unique pleasure of a couple miller-b screwgies where philly posters post pictures in our obs thread to piss us off using the "philly forum is dead" excuse as a coverup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 49 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Oh don't get me started on that one. All fear the female Christ child! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 53 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Oh don't get me started on that one. -AO and plenty of *****ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: -AO and plenty of *****ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I have a hunch that this year the SAI is going to be correct. But I haven't been less interested in the SAI since it first became "important". lol Here's my call for winter: Dec-Jan normal to below normal temps with an early end to winter temps sometime before the middle of Feb March snow will be unlikely. Airports will book 75-100% of climo snow. No 12" storms Higher than normal potential for a decent ice storm or 2 Higher than normal potential for snow sometime around xmas-new years We will have the notso unique pleasure of a couple miller-b screwgies where philly posters post pictures in our obs thread to piss us off using the "philly forum is dead" excuse as a coverup I like your forecast but I'm skeptical about late winter. Into early March it seems you always have an event or two in there. Of course, the significance level of events then is up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 My gut says this is one of those winters where Charleston, WV gets more snow than Martinsburg. Expect I'll be hoping for the bad storm track running into a block on occasion to salvage a few events. Below climo totals, but not a total dog of a season. Also agree with Bob on the higher than average likelihood of ice events, especially here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was warming up the punter reading Bob's early thoughts until I got to the ice part. I'm not expecting good chances at miller A's. That's why I don't think big storms will be likely this far south. I suppose some hybrid type of miller B could do it. Cold neutral and nina climo doesn't really support a classic southern stream miller A. Anything is always possible and I'm just tossing out random thoughts based on what I've been thinking about. Sick blocking has happened plenty of times in the past with nothing to show for it. The indices in Dec-Jan 2010-11 look great on paper but ground truth says otherwise. The ice thoughts come from trouble with storm track (se ridge won't be non-existent imho. It will be there at times) but blocking and/or -epo could lock some cold in so a crappy track could do some damage. We can all pray for a 95-96 type of winter but that one defied cold enso climo on a grand scale. Then again, maybe we're just on an extended heater and my guess is awful and we get destroyed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 I bet #wave1 gets a lot of play on Twitter. Did Bastardi take over AER? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Just to be clear the AER forecast is a designed model by Cohen & team...not just his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 21 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Taking away 1 storm from a lot of winters over history would result in a lot of crap seasons near the cities. Probably not the same in wnwxlvr land but around here single storms are usually very important to switch a total bust to a decent season. Jan 10, Feb 06, Jan 00, etc made up the vast majority of annual snowfall. Even though 06-07 kinda sucked the Vday sleetfest and glacier made it a memorable season. Many seasons don't have a single good storm. I think I've finally crossed over to the side that would prefer one big storm to break climo vs nickel and diming the way there. The run from 2013-15 was incredible for # of events and seasonal totals. Of course I would prefer those seasons every year but that's not reality. I'm not looking forward to the next complete failure reality check. It's probably not far in the future either. Sweet! Welcome to the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Sweet! Welcome to the team. Boo!! You guys can have that team. Here's to 15 3" snows and below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Boo!! You guys can have that team. Here's to 15 3" snows and below normal temps. I'll side with you! We have just as equal such chances as the other guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 The last couple of weeks the CFS monthly has been an emphatic NO with the prospects of an early winter, for not just our area but for the nation as a whole, with runs very similar to the latest runs below. The follow through into December has also deteriorated from the promising look just a few weeks ago to where it is just as bad as November, if not even worse. So imagine my surprise when JB posts a CFS 45 day snowfall outlook that shows fairly impressive snowfall amounts for the Northeast and the nation as a whole with snow even down into our region. Couldn't figure out how we could have both until I looked at the weeklies. This would be a very promising 3 week stretch from mid November into early December for the Northeast, Lakes and even down into the mid-Atlantic. And the 850 temp anomalies are impressive as well with the only downside being that precip anomalies are drier then normal. I would take this and run. Of course this is the CFS so I am sure it will have a different look next week just as it has done all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 I took a glance at the CFS weeklies yesterday. I only look at the h5 pattern though. Does look interesting heading into mid November. Looked at the 6z GEFS 500 mb height anomalies at the end of the run this morning- around November 7- and it has a pretty nice look. Not sure if it all means much at this point, but at least if the general idea holds we should have some chilly weather heading into turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 22 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I took a glance at the CFS weeklies yesterday. I only look at the h5 pattern though. Does look interesting heading into mid November. Looked at the 6z GEFS 500 mb height anomalies at the end of the run this morning- around November 7- and it has a pretty nice look. Not sure if it all means much at this point, but at least if the general idea holds we should have some chilly weather heading into turkey day. I hear Euro weeklies flip to cold mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I hear Euro weeklies flip to cold mid Nov. It seems most of the long, long range guidance is moving towards that. The GEFS again towards the end of its run would imply at least seasonably chilly by the end of the first week of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 52 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It seems most of the long, long range guidance is moving towards that. The GEFS again towards the end of its run would imply at least seasonably chilly by the end of the first week of Nov. Not that they're right, but most would rather wait for the first week of December for those maps for the obvious reason that climo is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 I have to give a presentation to DC council on Tuesday. Outlook won't be until November. Not going to commit to much to council. But as of now, this feels about right - Dec: -2 Jan: -2 Feb: +2 Snow: 110% of normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 4 hours ago, Deck Pic said: I have to give a presentation to DC council on Tuesday. Outlook won't be until November. Not going to commit to much to council. But as of now, this feels about right - Dec: -2 Jan: -2 Feb: +2 Snow: 110% of normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 4 hours ago, Deck Pic said: I have to give a presentation to DC council on Tuesday. Outlook won't be until November. Not going to commit to much to council. But as of now, this feels about right - Dec: -2 Jan: -2 Feb: +2 Snow: 110% of normal That would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 5 hours ago, Deck Pic said: I have to give a presentation to DC council on Tuesday. Outlook won't be until November. Not going to commit to much to council. But as of now, this feels about right - Dec: -2 Jan: -2 Feb: +2 Snow: 110% of normal I'm in. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 This is very cool about the PV disruption and Hurricane Nicole, I bring this up a little late, but a lot going on recently regarding the stratospheric polar vortex, and more to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Looking at some EP Flux from Sam 's tweet earlier today. Also, mentioned by Michaeal Ventrice, is the ECM ensembles forecast concerning the potential displacement of the polar vortex in the 11 to 15 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 21 hours ago, Deck Pic said: I have to give a presentation to DC council on Tuesday. Outlook won't be until November. Not going to commit to much to council. But as of now, this feels about right - Dec: -2 Jan: -2 Feb: +2 Snow: 110% of normal Your reasoning is much more informed than mine is, but if someone were to put a gun to my head and politely request a winter forecast, I don't think mine would differ terribly. The fact that this comes from you gives a warm fuzzy. I could go for a little more than basically average snowfall; however, if it comes with cold early in the season, then I wouldn't be too terribly upset. Of course, I reserve the right to be pissed when we jackpot locally with 1.5" just prior to a transfer as a Miller B bombs to 965 about 100 miles off Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Please just no 70 degree Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 19 hours ago, Deck Pic said: I have to give a presentation to DC council on Tuesday. Outlook won't be until November. Not going to commit to much to council. But as of now, this feels about right - Dec: -2 Jan: -2 Feb: +2 Snow: 110% of normal Sounds good to me man. It feels like the AO/NAO are starting to show their hand. There are clearly more signals that favor blocking this winter than having a raging PV squashing our hopes and dreams. If we do have favorable high latitudes in general I have a hunch that early winter will come in waves with warm breaks. Over the next couple weeks it looks like the persistent troughing in the west will continue to pump up heights in Canada for most of the period so our source region is pretty toasty. GEFS is showing the trough in the west retrograding over time and building a ridge in western Canada. CFS goes further and dumps cold into the east half of the conus by mid november. Seems pretty logical. I can envision an oscillating trough/ridge pattern in the western conus/canada while maintaining a -ao/nao in general for an extended period. Going totally weenie....we have a cold second half of Nov and early Dec, warmish middle of Dec, and cold with snow holiday. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sounds good to me man. It feels like the AO/NAO are starting to show their hand. There are clearly more signals that favor blocking this winter than having a raging PV squashing our hopes and dreams. If we do have favorable high latitudes in general I have a hunch that early winter will come in waves with warm breaks. Over the next couple weeks it looks like the persistent troughing in the west will continue to pump up heights in Canada for most of the period so our source region is pretty toasty. GEFS is showing the trough in the west retrograding over time and building a ridge in western Canada. CFS goes further and dumps cold into the east half of the conus by mid november. Seems pretty logical. I can envision an oscillating trough/ridge pattern in the western conus/canada while maintaining a -ao/nao in general for an extended period. Going totally weenie....we have a cold second half of Nov and early Dec, warmish middle of Dec, and cold with snow holiday. LOL As I mentioned above, so do the Euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.