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Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion

AlaskaETC

By AlaskaETC,
in Mid Atlantic

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

CFS and CanSips are both pretty warm and not a great h5 look for DJF. Obviously there is limited skill and value with huge lead times. We won't really have a good benchmark to guess on until ENSO is figured out. It still has a long ways to go before neg anomalies start showing in the ENSO regions. I'd be perfectly happy with a neg neutral enso this winter. Anything less than -1C anomalies wouldn't be reason to worry. 

 

anomnight.4.7.2016.gif

I agree, and sometimes, even with bad setups you get lucky in the timing of snowfall.  Likewise, sometimes even in good setups you end up unlucky.

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

but w/o the -NAO

otoh, CFS2 ain't so gung ho on a NINA

it did pretty well predicting this year's super NINO, so maybe it could be closer to right (warmer) than the Euro

either way, I'm mentally prepared for a disaster winter, so close to normal will feel like a snowy year

nino34Sea.gif

Time sensitive graphic FTL.It's LA Nina, like 1996 or 2014.

 

And for the record it didn't flip it just did a 180 degree pivot!

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

nice article.  But is it really a death sentence for our winter in the MA?  I know what the conventional wisdom says but will have to see what the NAO can do and how strong or weak the Nina actually is.  I will remain optimistic for now.  Perhaps no blockbuster HECS but I can be happy with climo reaching small event from the northern stream. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

nice article.  But is it really a death sentence for our winter in the MA?  I know what the conventional wisdom says but will have to see what the NAO can do and how strong or weak the Nina actually is.  I will remain optimistic for now.  Perhaps no blockbuster HECS but I can be happy with climo reaching small event from the northern stream. 

A weak Nina/neg neutral winter would be potentially okay, depending upon how other important indices set up of course. Remember we had a Nino watch for a long time and it never really materialized until last summer/fall, so who knows. If a Nina does get going, lets hope it stays on the weak side for the winter months.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

nice article.  But is it really a death sentence for our winter in the MA?  I know what the conventional wisdom says but will have to see what the NAO can do and how strong or weak the Nina actually is.  I will remain optimistic for now.  Perhaps no blockbuster HECS but I can be happy with climo reaching small event from the northern stream. 

 

For whatever reason, lack of blocking with a nina post nino seems to be more common that the other way around. The small data set of ninas following ninos definitely show the typical risk of boom/bust with more busts on the books than booms. 

 

It's still a couple months early to trust lr enso guidance but the trend the last couple months has been to tank the nino quicker and it has also trended a bit cooler for the JJA period. 

 

Here's the Feb euro enso plumes:

 

post-2035-0-14311100-1460729765_thumb.jp

 

And compare the JJA period for the latest plumes that just came out:

 

post-2035-0-87364000-1460729801_thumb.jp

 

Spread gets pretty noisy beyond June but at least it looks like 3.4 isn't forecast to get below -1C and even a trend to back off as we get into fall. Still plenty of time to strengthen though and there's no sense in trusting anything for a while. 

 

We should root for the slowest nino death possible. We fared better in the winter department with late blooming Ninas compared the early developers. 

 

Still a ways to go at least but things are definitely on a solid cooling trend:

 

anomnight.4.14.2016.gif

 

 

 

We can definitely keep low expectations if a mod or strong nina develops. Past history has not been kind and relying solely on blocking to stand a chance at surpassing climo kinda sucks. We haven't been lucky in that department for some years now. 

 

73-74 was front loaded with a solid Dec and that was a strong nina following a strong nino. 83-84 sucked. Mostly due to no help from the high latitudes. 

 

At least Ninas favor a front loaded winter if it's going to be a good year. I'd be fine with a couple decent events in Dec/Jan and then sucking a tailpipe the rest of the way. I would not be fine with a AK vortex and SE ridge and that is definitely on the table. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Spread gets pretty noisy beyond June but at least it looks like 3.4 isn't forecast to get below -1C and even a trend to back off as we get into fall. Still plenty of time to strengthen though and there's no sense in trusting anything for a while. 

Know that 3.4 is something to follow for our region when dealing with a neutral through an El Nino but is that the case for a moderate to strong La Nina? Does it influence the weather patterns the same or does it possibly produce different results if not even come into play at all?

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Was browsing to get an idea what warmer waters in the 3.4 region relative to the other regions might mean for the winter during a La Nina and came across something I was not aware of. A La Nina Modoki. Unlike an El Nino Modoki where the warmest anomalies lay centered on the 3.4 zone and the coldest are on the outer edges both east and west the La Nina Modoki is the complete opposite. It has the coldest anomalies centered around 3.4 and the warmer anomalies on the eastern and western edges. 

 

http://la.climatologie.free.fr/enso/enso-pdo2-english.htm#ninomodoki

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Does anyone know how ENSO affects pdo/troughing over the NEpac? I've been hearing forecasts for a tanking PDO later in the year, which would obviously be a bad thing for us, but I'm not sure how these are connected to the upcoming nina.

 

PDO is almost guaranteed to be negative if we have a mod or strong nina. There isn't a case in modern history showing otherwise. Weak nina's are mixed. A few of them had a +pdo (83-84 / 84-85 / 95-96 / 00-01). But as far as snowfall goes only one year of those 3 stands out obviously.

 

In the bigger picture the PDO is much less of a player during a Nina. Our battle is usually with the SE ridge and the PJ not getting below us. If we go into Nina territory this winter then we need blocking + some luck or just a whole heaping pile of luck. It's been 20 years since a Nina was prolific and it was nearly 30 since the one before it. heh. We're due! 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

PDO is almost guaranteed to be negative if we have a mod or strong nina. There isn't a case in modern history showing otherwise. Weak nina's are mixed. A few of them had a +pdo (83-84 / 84-85 / 95-96 / 00-01). But as far as snowfall goes only one year of those 3 stands out obviously.

In the bigger picture the PDO is much less of a player during a Nina. Our battle is usually with the SE ridge and the PJ not getting below us. If we go into Nina territory this winter then we need blocking + some luck or just a whole heaping pile of luck. It's been 20 years since a Nina was prolific and it was nearly 30 since the one before it. heh. We're due!

2013-2014 was close. The JFM number in 2014 was 0.6. The number in 96 was 0.7. Both great winters. The number in 2012 was also 0.6. And that was a disaster.

I think we have other, bigger drivers. IIRC there was zip in the way of lasting blocking in 2013-14.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

2013-2014 was close. The JFM number in 2014 was 0.6. The number in 96 was 0.7. Both great winters. The number in 2012 was also 0.6. And that was a disaster.

I think we have other, bigger drivers. IIRC there was zip in the way of lasting blocking in 2013-14.

 

13-14 had blocking in the form of a monster -epo. And we got lucky with a favorable trough axis downstream. I suppose I would take a monster -epo any year with any enso config and let the chips drop. 

 

This Nino is a monster so it will likely have some sort of hangover effect down the line. I have no idea what that effect would be. It's pretty easy just to root for neutral or weak nina. Once we get into mod or strong territory things definitely start to work against us. North of us doesn't mind to much either way but down here we have some rough history. 

 

I said this before. I would be totally happy with a front loaded Dec-Jan even if we don't hit climo. Get a few decent events in here early and if it goes to hell then so be it. Waiting and waiting for 2 months for a back loaded winter kinda sucks. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

13-14 had blocking in the form of a monster -epo. And we got lucky with a favorable trough axis downstream. I suppose I would take a monster -epo any year with any enso config and let the chips drop.

This Nino is a monster so it will likely have some sort of hangover effect down the line. I have no idea what that effect would be. It's pretty easy just to root for neutral or weak nina. Once we get into mod or strong territory things definitely start to work against us. North of us doesn't mind to much either way but down here we have some rough history.

I said this before. I would be totally happy with a front loaded Dec-Jan even if we don't hit climo. Get a few decent events in here early and if it goes to hell then so be it. Waiting and waiting for 2 months for a back loaded winter kinda sucks.

You are correct. I was referring to Atlantic side blocking.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

You are correct. I was referring to Atlantic side blocking.

It's coming back eventually. The height patterns over the high latitudes over next week to 10 days are epic but way too late. Maybe it's a sign of a reversal going forward. Too bad we can't meaningfully discuss for 8 months. Haha

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted

 

I said this before. I would be totally happy with a front loaded Dec-Jan even if we don't hit climo. Get a few decent events in here early and if it goes to hell then so be it. Waiting and waiting for 2 months for a back loaded winter kinda sucks. 

 

Agree 100%.  It's far more enjoyable to time snow with good sun-angle (and Christmas) to help keep it on the ground.

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted

13-14 had blocking in the form of a monster -epo. And we got lucky with a favorable trough axis downstream. I suppose I would take a monster -epo any year with any enso config and let the chips drop. 

 

This Nino is a monster so it will likely have some sort of hangover effect down the line. I have no idea what that effect would be. It's pretty easy just to root for neutral or weak nina. Once we get into mod or strong territory things definitely start to work against us. North of us doesn't mind to much either way but down here we have some rough history. 

 

I said this before. I would be totally happy with a front loaded Dec-Jan even if we don't hit climo. Get a few decent events in here early and if it goes to hell then so be it. Waiting and waiting for 2 months for a back loaded winter kinda sucks. 

 

 

Agree 100%.  It's far more enjoyable to time snow with good sun-angle (and Christmas) to help keep it on the ground.

Agree, and who knows, maybe an early white pattern can 'lock' :whistle:

However, getting 4 consecutive above snow climo's would REALLY be pulling something out of the hat.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

This page is hilarious. You really think the next winter after the blizzard of our lives is going to produce? I think we are due for a dud.

People have been saying this for the last few years.

Every winter is individual, and basing forecasts or expectations on what happened the year prior is foolishness.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

This page is hilarious. You really think the next winter after the blizzard of our lives is going to produce? I think we are due for a dud.

It wasn't really a true blizzard, and not the storm of my life for sure. It was a damn nice storm for some, but outside of the brief period leading up to it, and a few other very transient cold shots here and there, the winter was overall very mild to warm and sucked. We can do okay in a weak Nina esp early, and of course there are other parameters that need to cooperate. You do have a point though- we are probably due for a dud or at least below avg snowfall, given what our climo is and what has transpired the last 3 winters.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

It wasn't really a true blizzard, and not the storm of my life for sure. It was a damn nice storm for some, but outside of the brief period leading up to it, and a few other very transient cold shots here and there, the winter was overall very mild to warm and sucked. We can do okay in a weak Nina esp early, and of course there are other parameters that need to cooperate. You do have a point though- we are probably due for a dud or at least below avg snowfall, given what our climo is and what has transpired the last 3 winters.

We're doomed :P

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I'd be totally happy with a cold Dec-Jan with 15" and nothing after.

I hope we run 3 straight +10's with no snow and a historic blizzard forecast that completely busts within 6 hours of starting.

I can take it because the entertainment value of some of these people going completely off the cliff would be priceless.

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