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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs


DDweatherman

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Again, if you are comparing to prior to the 12Z run, sure. But this 18Z run is nearly the same as the 12Z run unless your source is different to both what Ian posted and what TT shows.

My asking had nothing to do with whether it looked good or not. I was just wondering what you were looking at because it seemed like you were looking at some very different output that wasn't already shown on the 12Z run.

What I wrote above is what I saw. Even putting the models aside just take a look outside. For me it's 39/16 (IAD last hour). Very dry air. Weaker northern stream system. Surface low further south and east. If this advisory stays up I'd be shocked.

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Is this a high confidence forecast?

Like I told you, it would not be ky to central nc and off the coast, it's way further north in central va and wv and what happens next is unknown. I must have missed your forecast along with the rest of the low confidence crowd did nothing but model regurgitation.

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Like I told you, it would not be ky to central nc and off the coast, it's way further north in central va and wv and what happens next is unknown. I must have missed your forecast along with the rest of the low confidence crowd did nothing but model regurgitation.

yea but if you have a high confidence forecast and are always wrong that's worse than copying models

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

508 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-502>508-VAZ028-030-031-

052>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-504-040615-

/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.160304T0300Z-160304T1500Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-

NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-

CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-

NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-

NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-

SOUTHEAST HARFORD-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-

EASTERN LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-

EASTERN MINERAL-

508 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS

EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE INCH...TWO TO THREE INCHES ACROSS

SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IN BANDS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS

EVENING. LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND

AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST

OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW TAPERS OFF ALONG EAST OF INTERSTATE 95

FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CAUSE SLUSHY AND LOCALLY SNOW COVERED

ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW COVERED

ROADS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
508 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-502>508-VAZ028-030-031-
052>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-504-040615-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.160304T0300Z-160304T1500Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-
CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-
EASTERN LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
EASTERN MINERAL-
508 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE INCH...TWO TO THREE INCHES ACROSS
  SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IN BANDS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
  EVENING. LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND
  AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST
  OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW TAPERS OFF ALONG EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
  FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CAUSE SLUSHY AND LOCALLY SNOW COVERED
  ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW COVERED
  ROADS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S THROUGH THIS EVENING.

That's more representative of what is happening.

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The low is currently just northeast of New Orleans and will track across South Georgia, south Carrolina, and south of hatteras. (Which is way south of KY northeast through central NC (which is impossible since nc is SOUTH of ky) not north). Sorry back to our regularly scheduled programming free from the burdens of any geographic factual accuracy.

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