Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,501
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ChicagoGuy
    Newest Member
    ChicagoGuy
    Joined

Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs


DDweatherman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It's possible, just can't picture it.

I actually remember a situation like this. I want to say it was March but not sure of year. Last 4 years maybe. 2011 maybe. We got 1-2 and they got slammed. I remember us thinking it would come north but it never did. The snow collapsed SE and we dried out quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I actually remember a situation like this. I want to say it was March but not sure of year. Last 4 years maybe. 2011 maybe. We got 1-2 and they got slammed. I remember us thinking it would come north but it never did. The snow collapsed SE and we dried out quickly.

Was it 2012? Big bands setup near CHO and dumped 8-12" in 4 hours?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's about right...they finally get a storm with a favorable track and its 35F with 3:1 flakes the size of lawn chairs

 

Most of it falls before 12z so it's night time. If they get good rates for a few hours 4" is easily possible. 6" maybe a bit of a stretch. I'm talking the city, not DT's house.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most of it falls before 12z so it's night time. If they get good rates for a few hours 4" is easily possible. 6" maybe a bit of a stretch. I'm talking the city, not DT's house.

 

Loop the 2m temp map. It never gets close to freezing down there. Until hour 36 and by then its over. We actually have a decent surface up here but limited precip. Go figure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sref went the wrong way. The north trend really has halted today. every run that nudged north one went south. hope we start a new trend 0z

I think the trend started within the last 24 hours. Let it continue!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z GFS is 1-3" uniform. Most models are on the lower side, so I would over/under an inch. The coastals precip is 40 miles or so south. 0.5" QPF goes from King George, VA to Prince Frederick MD due east to Bethany Beach, DE. Vs 18z where that line was Locust Grove, VA to the SE Side of I-495 to around Annapolis then due east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z runs stay the course. Some subtle changes that argue for a northern trend yet others that argue southward. Pretty much a wash overall. Ironically the shortwave following this current event that I was on about for days about having potential is helping to ruin this event for our locale. Never got the separation between the two that was needed and that is screwing up both. It is giving the little extra nudge to push this system out before it can reach our latitude and conversely this current event is not allowing the kicker to intensify quickly enough once it hits the coast. Pretty much the story of this winter except for the blizzard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a slight shift south with the 0z model suite. Probably not worth over analyzing at this point. Its a minor event, generally 1-3" for the entire region. The heavier precip will stay mostly to the SE of our region, where there will be temp issues, rain, and lower ratios where it does snow. Doubt there will be more than 4" of snow anywhere and that would likely occur in the "jackpot" zone just to the NW of Richmond where temps will be just cold enough and that area gets under the better lift for a time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know this is probably the last 'event' to really track for the winter before we have our shorts and wife beaters on next week but some are really overanalyizing this lol. Its been vitrually the same (save for usual model games) since the start....1-2" maybe 3" if someone gets lucky between Manassas-DC-Annapolis/south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too bad srefs are useless. They bumped back up to .5" qpf around the cities. Other than them, this has become another crash and burn storm.

Take what we can get and look forward to next winter. If I score 2" I'd be thrilled. Would love to have been NAMd one more time though. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...