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Possible winter storm March 1st-2nd


Thundersnow12

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For the Detroit metro region, this system looks like a repeat of this past Wednesday. Suicide cutoff for the city south. DTX mentioned this in their recent AFD.

Still had 4.5" here and even Toledo had 3". A true suicide cutoff would be yesterday's para euro, but really it doesn't matter. Some models not named euro take all snow SOUTH of us. The key to dtx discussion is that raob sampling not til 12z monday.
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For the Detroit metro region, this system looks like a repeat of this past Wednesday. Suicide cutoff for the city south. DTX mentioned this in their recent AFD.

Yet to see a front end thumping from a southern jet entrained system without marginal thermals. Its a pattern which has been undeniable since November and will die with the winter season.

 

By looking at the models this system is behaving different than the others as of late by its twitchiness from run to run. Until sampling the dream is alive.... the reality of the 33°F and rain is real.

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Still had 4.5" here and even Toledo had 3". A true suicide cutoff would be yesterday's para euro, but really it doesn't matter. Some models not named euro take all snow SOUTH of us. The key to dtx discussion is that raob sampling not til 12z monday.

North of M59 will possibly get their 3rd 12" snowstorm of the season. Not only is that impressive it's probably historic. Since 2005 areas near PTK have logged 7 12"+ storms. Possibly making it 8 this coming Wednesday.

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12z NAM isn't even worth posting. Just horrible.

 

You can see the problem around 48. At least a piece of that lobe of energy rotating around the PV has to phase with the southern s/w. NAM and GFS scoot it so fast to the east it doesn't have a chance to do that, leaving the main s/w to shear off to the SE in the confluence.

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Actually, just looking at what the EURO does at H5, it's not so much that initial PV lobe as much as the one rotating around it between 78-90. On the EURO the initial lobe scoots off to the east even faster allowing heights to rise downstream a bit. This allows the main s/w to slow and dig and wait to phase with that second lobe. On the NAM, the main s/w is too fast and that second piece of PV energy is too slow. Timing is everything.

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Actually, just looking at what the EURO does at H5, it's not so much that initial PV lobe as much as the one rotating around it between 78-90. On the EURO the initial lobe scoots off to the east even faster allowing heights to rise downstream a bit. This allows the main s/w to slow and dig and wait to phase with that second lobe. On the NAM, the main s/w is too fast and that second piece of PV energy is too slow. Timing is everything.

 

ATM we are in a position where the euro/EPS have been adjusting track quite a bit from run to run. Because of the timing difficulties and ENS spread it is tough to tell if the further north track is correct. At the same time, once the EC OP/EPS begin to lock in on a solution(may happen soon), the solution should be given a lot of credence. This suite is the cream of the crop in terms of medium range performance and that has only been exemplified further over the last few weeks IMO. The majority of the euro ensembles agree on a track somewhere through the lower lakes. The swath will be narrow as you mentioned which only makes it more complicated.

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ATM we are in a position where the euro/EPS have been adjusting track quite a bit from run to run. Because of the timing difficulties and ENS spread it is tough to tell if the further north track is correct. At the same time, once the EC OP/EPS begin to lock in on a solution(may happen soon), the solution should be given a lot of credence. This suite is the cream of the crop in terms of medium range performance and that has only been exemplified further over the last few weeks IMO. The majority of the euro ensembles agree on a track somewhere through the lower lakes. The swath will be narrow as you mentioned which only makes it more complicated.

 

looks like the 12z GFS is at least going to nudge north.

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BUF looks like the winner attm...but we have a bit of wiggle room for a northward adjustment. I got a feeling a more amped solution like the EURO ends up being correct...question is whether we end up fending off mixing.

 

The NWS offices seem to think that too, based off of many of them discussing mixing issues over a miss to the south.

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Making a comeback? The 00Z looked much better for those of us in the snow-starved zone.

 

Unless you are just referring to storm strength?

was referring to areas south of you on the 0z run N IL and NW IN were totally shutout. But you do have a point the better snows moved south on the 12z run. Would love to see a more Euro type run\.

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Things are getting there on the GFS and GGEM, imo.

 

We need the western lobe of the Hudson Bay low to be further west, that will help the system go negative tilt sooner.

 

GGEM.

 

gem_z500a_us_14.png

 

GFS

 

gfs_z500a_us_14.png

 

gfs_z500a_namer_14.png

 

Hoosier would get nailed again on the GGEM.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

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geos combing the yard for twigs is taking precedence over posting why we have hope yet maps. not good.

 

Haven't even touched that yet. Was just up too late.

 

Another thing that would help if the SE ridge was a touch stronger, it would force the system to slow down and amp up.

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