TimChgo9 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I am actually surprised there is another storm on the table... I should pay closer attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Wasn't much agreement on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Same. But I'm just gonna assume rain or dustings. Same here. At the rate this winter has gone, I highly doubt Toronto will be in the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 A few news stations in Michigan are already starting the hype. Already saw tons of people posting the GFS showing MI getting slammed with ~20+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 A few news stations in Michigan are already starting the hype. Already saw tons of people posting the GFS showing MI getting slammed with ~20+ inches of snow. Ultimate party foul... Almost as bad as TWC but it's all about ratings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alumberman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 aqY67BGFV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 A little off topic, but I've noticed a trend of media (and those on social media) posting operational run total accumulated snowfall maps for the hype. To me, this gives meteorology a black eye as the public perceives these as a forecast. You can't make them understand what they are really looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 A little off topic, but I've noticed a trend of media (and those on social media) posting operational run total accumulated snowfall maps for the hype. To me, this gives meteorology a black eye as the public perceives these as a forecast. You can't make them understand what they are really looking at. I totally agree. Especially on social media, people see this and take it as fact. Then when the actual forecast changes and the whole system swings out of their region, they become livid and bring out the pitchforks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Fill us in, as to why you think it will be north then. The fact he's paying attention says enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The fact he's paying attention says enough. True, great point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 0z GFS travels across N MO to C IL to N IN to S MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 988 over central KS. Much more cold air to work with than this past Wednesday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Yeah GFS all over the place. Back to 12z position almost. Significant ice and sleet in southern WI, far northern IL. Seeing 35 mph NE winds roaring down the lake, I can't help but think the warm front will get shoved down to I-80 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 This "farthest north" track would really be icing on the cake for those of us in the crappy zone of crappy nothing this winter (i.e. cycloneville, to Chicago, Milwaukee and, up to my area. Get missed to the southeast where they got a foot to getting missed to the northwest by just a little bit.. I would think with all the bouncing back and forth on the models, that a good "average path" for this system would put the crappity crap zone in the best path for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 That HP sitting above the lakes is in a decent position. The low just came into the lower 48 much stronger than 18Z that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 This "farthest north" track would really be icing on the cake for those of us in the crappy zone of crappy nothing this winter (i.e. cycloneville, to Chicago, Milwaukee and, up to my area. Get missed to the southeast where they got a foot to getting missed to the northwest by just a little bit.. I would think with all the bouncing back and forth on the models, that a good "average path" for this system would put the crappity crap zone in the best path for snow. Well we are in the middle area between a miss to the south and grazing from the north. I'm hoping we get the ugly runs down before Sunday. GGEM coming in more organized and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 This "farthest north" track would really be icing on the cake for those of us in the crappy zone of crappy nothing this winter (i.e. cycloneville, to Chicago, Milwaukee and, up to my area. Get missed to the southeast where they got a foot to getting missed to the northwest by just a little bit.. I would think with all the bouncing back and forth on the models, that a good "average path" for this system would put the crappity crap zone in the best path for snow. That's the primary piece of optimism I would have on this storm, I hope this keeps its intensity and moisture either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 That HP sitting above the lakes is in a decent position. The low just came into the lower 48 much stronger than 18Z that run. I think the 0z GFS shows the northern extent for this. I was kinda surprised it made it that far north to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 0z UKIE has a 994mb low over STL at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The GFS is the only model that is missing the weak system that comes between Sunday and this storm, that weak system sets down the cold front for this system to ride. The 18z had that system and this system was in turn south. That is the key piece to this puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 UKMET would have the low pass through Toledo I think. All models are very warm out front of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 0z UKIE has a 994mb low over STL at 120 hours. I have been cautious to use the Ukie this winter, it has been bombs away with every system this year case in point the last system it was getting it down to 980mb in KY and it never verified close to that, I think it ended up being about 987mb at those points. Also it is completely blowing the high to the north, or in this case lack there of, other models have a 1030+mb high moving in sequence with this system to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I have been cautious to use the Ukie this winter, it has been bombs away with every system this year case in point the last system it was getting it down to 980mb in KY and it never verified close to that, I think it ended up being about 987mb at those points. Also it is completely blowing the high to the north, or in this case lack there of, other models have a 1030+mb high moving in sequence with this system to the north. Not sure if this is a documented bias but anecdotally, I've noticed the Ukie being too weak with highs before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The GFS is the only model that is missing the weak system that comes between Sunday and this storm, that weak system sets down the cold front for this system to ride. The 18z had that system and this system was in turn south. That is the key piece to this puzzle. ^This. GGEM starts the low over OK Panhandle, a lot like the EURO did. Big Mediocre hit for N IL and then for S MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Could be better. An improvement from the 12z run, but no where near what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Could be better. An improvement from the 12z run, but no where near what it was. Yeah over a foot less than this time last night for here, but would still be a warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GEFS pretty similar to op run in terms of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GEFS has 2 distinct groups. One NW and one SE. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Not sure if this is a documented bias but anecdotally, I've noticed the Ukie being too weak with highs before.I would have to do a bit of research but I want to say it is a known bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Def. a lot of model issues to work out, some one is gonna luck out from this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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