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Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-25 PART II


snowstormcanuck

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The main part of the storm wasn't supposed to get into NE IL until rush hour. The deformation band is predicted to pivot back westward later. 

 

As long as the low gets up to Evansville, Chicago is still very much in play.

NAM made me believe it was just supposed to sit over us all day, my bad. Thanks, Geos. 

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NAM made me believe it was just supposed to sit over us all day, my bad. Thanks, Geos. 

 

Just dream about the 18z GFS run tonight!  :snowing:

 

To the SLP. Current position and EVV is NNE of there. Looking good to me.

 

post-7389-0-82682200-1456296728_thumb.pn

 

Edit: Too bad the low doesn't come a little farther north - like Bloomington, IN. then turns ENE.

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At 06z, the low was down to about 991 mb just north of KMKL over western TN, which has a west wind of 10 kt and that 991 mb pressure. Since the low was just north of MKL, it's possible pressure is/was 990 mb. Comparing this to 06z position from the 00z runs, GFS and UKMET are closest, NAM is pretty close but a hair west and Euro is too far east, along with 4km NAM. I wouldn't get too worried about the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR yet. Best to just monitor obs and radar trends before jumping off a cliff.

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At 06z, the low was down to about 991 mb just north of KMKL over western TN, which has a west wind of 10 kt and that 991 mb pressure. Since the low was just north of MKL, it's possible pressure is/was 990 mb. Comparing this to 06z position from the 00z runs, GFS and UKMET are closest, NAM is pretty close but a hair west and Euro is too far east, along with 4km NAM. I wouldn't get too worried about the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR yet. Best to just monitor obs and radar trends before jumping off a cliff.

 

Well said.  :clap:

 

It was pretty obvious the EURO was too far east.

 

FYI to anyone not knowing where MKL is, it is Jackson, TN.

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Kinda funny how Evansville has become a benchmark of sorts.

 

Yeah I remember that was a location that was referenced many times with the original GHD storm back in 2011.  That ended up boding very well for this area, but just goes to show how different each storm is.  Evansville in 2011 with GHD #1 meant 18" here vs nothing to perhaps a few rogue flakes here in 2016.  Way tighter cold sector precip corridor with this storm.

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It'll be interesting to see if the low center actually follows the path of the best pressure falls on that map (which would take the low between CVG and EVV).

 

But although it can be a good indicator, that doesn't always happen

 

If I extroplate my plot, Owensboro is the city it intersects. Not too far from EVV. ~25 miles.

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