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Snow to ice to wind driven rain discussion/obs 2/23-2/25 SNE CNE NNE


Ginx snewx

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1.75" at home, looks like a little less here in Montpelier.  It was still snowing when I left but had transitioned to very light sleet but the time I got to work.  They didn't touch the roads in anticipation of the mess coming and the melt afterward.  In this crappy winter 1.75" looks nice. I keep thinking that when we get a normal 4"-8" or 6"-10" snowfall it's going to feel like Boston last February   :lol:

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Pouring sleet currently at the mountain.  Mixed with freezing drizzle.

 

Good thick cold layer sitting on the east slope for the time being.

 

3,600ft...23F

2,600ft...25F

1,500ft...28F

 

2.75" SN/IP combo at 3,000ft.  Very dense stuff which will hopefully help insulate from the coming rain and warmth. 

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The inevitability of the warm penetration is as certain as an effeminate looking male's fear when learning he's been sentenced to hard time....

 

And, I cannot tell you how eerily similar this present surface product from NOAA compares to that scenario last week that ended the arctic reign.  It really is as though they just saved the image and re posted it a week or so later.  I guess this whole "tracking" this thing leading up could have been 86ed from the get go:

 

90fwbg.gif

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Could be some decent bangers tonight. The NAM has like 700 j/kg of elevated CAPE. Might be able to get some hail out of that in places.

box is impresssed

STRONG JET DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH WARM CONVEYOR

BELT PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS PWATS SURGE TO +3 TO +4 STD

ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA! IMPRESSIVE INDEED AND THIS WILL RESULT

IN A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL 1.0-1.5".

COULD SEE ISOLATED 2-3" IF ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOP. THIS

WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE THU EARLY MORNING COMMUTE WITH STREET AND

HIGHWAY FLOODING. A FEW RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY GO INTO MINOR FLOOD

HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOOD EVENT.

MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT IS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ALONG

THE SOUTH COAST WITH 925 MB SPEEDS OF 65-80 KT DEPENDING ON MODEL

OF CHOICE. THIS JET ADVECTS A VERY MILD AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND ALONG WITH DEW PTS INTO THE MU50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS CT/RI

AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS GENERATES 400-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THIS

AREA! VERY ANOMALOUS FOR A LATE FEB SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...FRONTAL SCALE FORCING WITH

APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL RESULT IN A LOW PROB OF A FINE

LINE OF LOW TOP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF

APPROACHING BOUNDARY 06Z-12Z THU. HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED

THUNDER WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING UP TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS DOWN

TO THE SURFACE. THUS RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS 06Z-12Z THU

WITH GREATEST RISK ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. IF CONVECTION

DOESN/T DEVELOP SUSTAINED WINDS MAY STILL REACH HIGH WIND

CRITERIA OF 35 KT/40 MPH. GIVEN THESE TWO WIND THREATS DECIDED TO

ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. SHOULD BE AN

ACTIVE WEATHER NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

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31F in Gardnet attm. Decent glaze on trees etc but roads are just wet

Schools for my wife and kids had 2 hour delays which were warranted. Accidents in my town took down poles or trees closing roads. My district had a regular schedule but I had to leave for a family emergency (things are all set)

Very cool looking out there

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