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The Last Hurrah for Winter? Late Winter/Early Spring Banter


dmillz25

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All depends on where you are.   LI has been a great place to be this winter-got the blizzard and the smaller events that missed S and W of NYC.    Locally here in CT, we got 15 from the blizzard and the smaller events for a total of close to 30 inches year to date, about 4 above normal.  The disappointment for those areas (and those N and W) has been post 2/10 or so where everyone has been shafted by cutters and warmth.  (already 49 here today despite a forecast that had us holding at 42 all day)

LI is just a tiny portion of the entire Northeast. This winter has been a disaster for the majority.

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LI is just a tiny portion of the entire Northeast. This winter has been a disaster for the majority.

Agree.  Northern NE has been decimated economically for those in the snow/cold business.   Pretty bad.   Lesson going forward: never lead away from warmth during a big Nino.   Many went cold/below/much below normal for the 2nd half of winter and that will not work out in most locales

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Blocking is starting to develop and is forecast to develop. It's still premature to rule out the possibility of a snow event during the first week of March.

AO02222016.jpg

If nothing happens by the 2nd week of March, I think that's pretty much it. There are hints of the blocking breaking down during week 2 of March.
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LI is just a tiny portion of the entire Northeast. This winter has been a disaster for the majority.

 

This is exactly why I feel like a lot of these climate stats focusing on one particular site aren't particularly useful. In 25 years from now, someone is going to look back and see normal snowfall for NYC this winter, when in reality 95% of it fell in one anomalous storm (that would have netted zero snow if it was 50 miles farther south) and the rest of the winter was a disaster. 

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This is exactly why I feel like a lot of these climate stats focusing on one particular site aren't particularly useful. In 25 years from now, someone is going to look back and see normal snowfall for NYC this winter, when in reality 95% of it fell in one anomalous storm (that would have netted zero snow if it was 50 miles farther south) and the rest of the winter was a disaster. 

And its why one should look at the weather with a bigger view than that of their own backyard, its much bigger than that.

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this winter will rank in the middle of all el nino winters in NYC...probably among the worst north and west...some were colder with less snow...some were just plain awful...I'll just use el nino winters as a comparison...It could pass 1968-69 with another big storm...2015-16 is the warmest of these years but has the coldest winter minimum and biggest snowfall...from top to bottom...

1977-78

2002-03...

2009-10

1957-58...

1963-64...

2004-05...

1940-41

1968-69...

2015-16...

1982-83...

1986-87...

1965-66...

1987-88...

1951-52...

1941-42...

2006-07...

1994-95...

1991-92...

1972-73...

1997-98...

 

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If nothing happens by the 2nd week of March, I think that's pretty much it. There are hints of the blocking breaking down during week 2 of March.

It's probably the first 10 days of March where there's the best opportunity for measurable snow and possibly a larger event due to the confluence of a very active subtropical jet, blocking, and possibly favorable MJO (Phases 4-5 and 7-8 are associated with above-climo frequency of measurable snowfall events for March and Phases 4 and 8 are most closely associated with 4" or greater events for the NYC region).

 

Bluewave's thread on MJO Phase 8 is an excellent one for purposes of reference.

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And its why one should look at the weather with a bigger view than that of their own backyard, its much bigger than that.

That's true, but when you look at it, most of this sub-forum has done well, except for the Hudson Valley. NYC and LI are in good shape, and most of Northerm NJ has near, if not over 30"

Granted, most of this in NJ and NYC was from the Blizzard and was gone in a week or so.

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It's probably the first 10 days of March where there's the best opportunity for measurable snow and possibly a larger event due to the confluence of a very active subtropical jet, blocking, and possibly favorable MJO (Phases 4-5 and 7-8 are associated with above-climo frequency of measurable snowfall events for March and Phases 4 and 8 are most closely associated with 4" or greater events for the NYC region).

Bluewave's thread on MJO Phase 8 is an excellent one for purposes of reference.

Nice post. Should we be concerned about the recent ensembles backing off on the cold?

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Agree . I lost power during Boxing Day.[/quote

I agree Boxing Day was a much better storm. The winds and drifting we're the best I have ever seen during a snow storm.

Winds were better during boxing day but this storm produced more snow and had prolonged blizzard conditions for our area.

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This blizzard was amazing in terms of snowfall rates and high winds. The only problem was that it melted down in like 2 days. I wasn't too shocked though given the strong El Nino and extreme December warmth.

here in nyc they remove snow much faster today then thy use to do it thanks to snow melt machines.. i remember when the blizzard was winding down. i saw so piled in corners of sidewalks.. then a few hours later that pile was gone.. front loaders put the snow into snow melt machines and there it is gone.. after the december blizzard 2010 here in nyc.. we had that sanitation problem where many accused the sanitation workers of going on strike and that is why many streets remained unplowed for days... this was a very good blizzard gusty winds early and heavy snowfalls rates for hours.. it never stopped snowing.. and only briefly at times the snow lightened up..i

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This blizzard was amazing in terms of snowfall rates and high winds. The only problem was that it melted down in like 2 days. I wasn't too shocked though given the strong El Nino and extreme December warmth.

 

That's a big factor too as to why Boxing Day was better for me locally. Boxing Day Snows stayed around for months. I remember my parents in Staten Island literally finding christmas decorations that had been buried from the storm in mid-March. 

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That's a big factor too as to why Boxing Day was better for me locally. Boxing Day Snows stayed around for months. I remember my parents in Staten Island literally finding christmas decorations that had been buried from the storm in mid-March.

The Boxing Day storm started a great run..

I had 13" in that storm, 14.5" in the 1/12 storm, 14" in 1/27, then 2" on 2/1 plus a half inch of ice. After the 2/1 ice storm, we had a 25" snow depth topped with glistening ice. The winter kind of died out at that point save for one 8" event in late February, but it was an amazing run.

10-11 will always be one of my favorite winters for the combination of a memorable blizzard with weeks of deep snowpack and frigid temps. People forget how cold December was that year, too. I believe Central Park had its 2nd longest stretch of continuous snow cover behind 47-48.

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here in nyc they remove snow much faster today then thy use to do it thanks to snow melt machines.. i remember when the blizzard was winding down. i saw so piled in corners of sidewalks.. then a few hours later that pile was gone.. front loaders put the snow into snow melt machines and there it is gone.. after the december blizzard 2010 here in nyc.. we had that sanitation problem where many accused the sanitation workers of going on strike and that is why many streets remained unplowed for days... this was a very good blizzard gusty winds early and heavy snowfalls rates for hours.. it never stopped snowing.. and only briefly at times the snow lightened up..i

It was a great blizzard but it's basically been a one storm winter.
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ame="LongBeachSurfFreak" post="4012424" timestamp="1456168299

Winds were better during boxing day but this storm produced more snow and had prolonged blizzard conditions for a for our area.

I have a warped view. I was partying in long beach during boxing but working in Manhattan this year. Of course the winds are going to be stronger on a barrier island. Regardless aftermath wise the drifts from Boxing Day were much much bigger. There was a drift at the end of the field 5 parking lot at jones beach that was at least 10' and lasted till spring

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Considering the strength of the Nino, we've been very lucky to get over 30" at Central Park and a potential for more in March. We knew we wouldn't have long stretches of cold like Jan-March 2014 and Feb-Mar 2015 which were unabated cold and snow. At least we got the 2nd largest snowfall, the coldest temperature at NYC in 22 years, and a couple smaller systems.

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