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2016 Short/Medium Term Severe Thread


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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Apparently the Midway coop observer's equipment took a lightning strike on Sunday.  What are the odds of that?

We had lightning take out sensors before here at DTW, mostly due to the fact they are the tallest thing in their area. Basically a lone metal tree in field.

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There was a tornado warning in northwestern IL earlier.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

334 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016    

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A    

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

WEST CENTRAL DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  

SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...    

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT    

* AT 334 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BATAVIA...   MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.    

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.    

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.    

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.    

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...   BATAVIA AROUND 340 PM CDT.   NORTH AURORA AROUND 345 PM CDT.   AURORA AND MONTGOMERY AROUND 400 PM CDT.   WARRENVILLE AROUND 415 PM CDT.     INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...   I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 121.  

 


 
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  • 4 weeks later...

I also posted this to start the September general thread, but there's a system that might bear watching for our sub as we enter the first part of Labor Day weekend next Friday-Saturday.  From SPC's D4-8 outlook this morning:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN THE DAY 4
   TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
   WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS ESEWD ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. THE MODELS MOVE THE
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. FROM TUESDAY/DAY
   4 TO THURSDAY/DAY 6. A PERSISTENT AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
   BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THAT
   TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
   RIDGE SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE.

   ON FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
   SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NCNTRL
   STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS LATE IN
   THE WEEK...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR IN THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE
   FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LATE
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN
   AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE FINER-SCALE DETAILS LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CONUS SUGGESTING PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/27/2016
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The system next Fri/Sat looks like it could be one to watch.  The timeframe necessitates painting with a broad brush for now but it looks like it has good dynamics/wind fields and it will be working with an airmass that is fairly warm and moist for this time of year.  Probably will be a chance before then as well.

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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The system next Fri/Sat looks like it could be one to watch.  The timeframe necessitates painting with a broad brush for now but it looks like it has good dynamics/wind fields and it will be working with an airmass that is fairly warm and moist for this time of year.  Probably will be a chance before then as well.

This could be the real kicker:

Also,
according to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical cyclone is
expected to develop along the west Mexico coast and track
northwest toward Baja California. This system will eventually
eject subtropical mid and upper level moisture northeast,
enhancing precipitation chances late this upcoming week over the
forecast area. The ECMWF appears to handle this system well and
generates 1 to 2 inches of rain over the area by the end of the
week, so will ramp up showers/storms chances late this week.
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4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

This could be the real kicker:


Also,
according to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical cyclone is
expected to develop along the west Mexico coast and track
northwest toward Baja California. This system will eventually
eject subtropical mid and upper level moisture northeast,
enhancing precipitation chances late this upcoming week over the
forecast area. The ECMWF appears to handle this system well and
generates 1 to 2 inches of rain over the area by the end of the
week, so will ramp up showers/storms chances late this week.

One negative about that type of setup is that it tends to contaminate the warm sector with lackluster lapse rates, thus keeping instability lower than it could be.  Just something to watch in the coming days.  But as mentioned before, it looks like we could have decent wind fields to work with if model solutions hold.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

One negative about that type of setup is that it tends to contaminate the warm sector with lackluster lapse rates, thus keeping instability lower than it could be.  Just something to watch in the coming days.  But as mentioned before, it looks like we could have decent wind fields to work with if model solutions hold.

Euro shows this exactly, that said it also is much stronger with that system than currently shown. If that system doesn't get drawn into the weekend system the potential goes up considerably with an uncontaminated warm sector and very favorable dynamics.

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11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The system next Fri/Sat looks like it could be one to watch.  The timeframe necessitates painting with a broad brush for now but it looks like it has good dynamics/wind fields and it will be working with an airmass that is fairly warm and moist for this time of year.  Probably will be a chance before then as well.

Definitely has potential.

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 ...MIDWEST...
   AN MCV AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MO SHOULD
   GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY
   SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL...EFFECTIVELY SERVING AS A WEAK WARM
   FRONT WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY TO ITS SOUTH. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
   THAT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT...LIKELY OWING IN PART TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
   OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR
   THE MCV AND LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A
   RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE
   DEW POINTS AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SETUP COULD FAVOR A
   COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO-DRIVEN
   SLIGHT RISK WHERE THE POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST WHILE EXPANDING LOW
   TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS A BROADER REGION.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0237 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2016    

 

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IL TO CNTRL INDIANA     CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE     VALID 091937Z - 092200Z     PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT     SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING   HOURS...AND THIS INCLUDES TORNADO POTENTIAL. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE   WILL BE POSSIBLE.  

 

  DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A   DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NEWD/NWD -- EXTENDING FROM N OF STL TO   NE OF EVV AT 19Z. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS EXIST S OF   THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS   PARTS OF SRN IL/INDIANA. INSOLATION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONTAL   ZONE HAS ENCOURAGED MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE AROUND   1000-2500 J/KG. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING NEWD/NWD   ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IL/INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM   ADVECTION -- LOCALLY ENCOURAGED BY MASS FLUXES PERIPHERAL TO A   REMNANT MCV ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL IL. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY   AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT   NEAR/E OF STL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BAND OF CONFLUENT FLOW ARCING   S FROM THE PRIMARY MCV. AS ASCENT PERIPHERAL TO THE MCV CONTINUES TO   OVERTAKE THE INCREASINGLY WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND UNCAPPED AIR   MASS S OF THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN CONVECTIVE   COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS   ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.    

 

ILX/LSX VWPS SAMPLE 25-30 KT OF SWLY/WSWLY FLOW IN THE 1-3-KM-AGL   LAYER...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR   STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS TO ARISE. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW SURROUNDING AN   AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE   MCV AND LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN   IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES   REGION. AS A RESULT...WIND PROFILES COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY   FAVORABLE FOR MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...TO   OFFER TORNADO POTENTIAL -- PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 22Z. THIS WOULD   ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE   WARM-FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE LOCALLY BACKED SFC WINDS WILL FOCUS A ZONE   OF 200-300 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH. A TORNADO RISK COULD ACCOMPANY   ANY PERSISTENT ROTATING TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SUCH   RISK SPREADING INTO/ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INDIANA THROUGH THE   EVENING -- PERHAPS REACHING THE WHITEWATER VALLEY OF E-CNTRL INDIANA   BY LATE EVENING.     POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW   STRENGTH...AND AN ONLY MODEST SFC RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED   FEATURES ALOFT...DETRACT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TORNADO RISK TO   SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE   TO BE MONITORED...AS SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST THROUGH THE   EVENING HOURS.  

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Initation seems to be happening over Central IN 

 SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...DETAILED METEOROLOGICAL REASONING PROVIDED IN PREVIOUS
   SWOMCD 1666 REMAINS VALID FOR THIS REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
   CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL IL TO THE E OF THE ST. LOUIS
   METRO EXHIBITING SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES DO APPEAR TO BE LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT A WARM AND
   MOIST AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
   INCREASE IN SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE MCD AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
   THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
   GENERALLY INCREASE INTO THE 150-200 M2/S2 RANGE THROUGH
   APPROXIMATELY 02Z WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR CONVECTION TO
   REMAIN SFC BASED. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH SOME RISK
   FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS
   POSSIBLE.

   ..GLEASON/GUYER.. 09/09/2016
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
622 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

ILC019-092345-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160909T2345Z/
CHAMPAIGN-
622 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY...
    
AT 621 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER PHILO...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHAMPAIGN...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

 

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