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2016 Short/Medium Term Severe Thread


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Northern  Boone county has been getting dumped on the past 90 minutes

if storms keep  redeveloping until that main line get there going to have hydro problems

 

edit: Flood avsiory issuedbut  looks like convection sagging SSE ...first  signs of an east-west WAA train developing west of RFD??  time will tell

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I know I should have taken video of it when I was outside a few minutes ago. but skies attm here in St Paul are mainly clear except for some scattered scud. There is a definite SE flow at least in the scud layer, if not a bit more. But in a bit of an unusual sighting looking east, the scud I watching actually was turning in a horizontal rotor, with the axis being perpendicular to the flow. And the turning when looking east was counterclockwise. Big deal for later on this evening, or just trying to make something out of nothing?

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The NMM and ARW, which have been on the ball lately, are somewhat active here on Sunday.

The ARW especially, which pretty much projected a carbon copy of the action ongoing right now in IA / IL, shows an initial MCS coming through during the late morning hours and then another round developing over the city in the late afternoon / early evening hours.

Still, given our "luck," I'm not holding my breath.

 

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23 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

I know I should have taken video of it when I was outside a few minutes ago. but skies attm here in St Paul are mainly clear except for some scattered scud. There is a definite SE flow at least in the scud layer, if not a bit more. But in a bit of an unusual sighting looking east, the scud I watching actually was turning in a horizontal rotor, with the axis being perpendicular to the flow. And the turning when looking east was counterclockwise. Big deal for later on this evening, or just trying to make something out of nothing?

Jim if I remember right you live about a mile south of me. I didn't see a horizontal turner, but there have been some very weird formations with the low level SE flow. Skies out west have been clear for a few hours, and clear now here like you said. Cams don't really show much new development but it may happen. 

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Outflow just came through here and knocked the temps/dews back a bit.  Watching the activity out west in Lee/Ogle counties as it looks to be heading this way, especially if it dips a bit more south, but not sure what condition it will be in.

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3 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said:

Jim if I remember right you live about a mile south of me. I didn't see a horizontal turner, but there have been some very weird formations with the low level SE flow. Skies out west have been clear for a few hours, and clear now here like you said. Cams don't really show much new development but it may happen. 

they were rather sparse, so you could have missed it if you weren't looking at them for like 5-10 mins like I did. but the formations were weird none the less and you're also right. as for this evening, I'm waiting on the soundings, which should be out shortly, to see what we have to work with. Synoptically, we have a shot at something, and the short-range models are mixed on what may or may not happen, hinting at more scattered cells if it does occur. but it'll be an interesting late evening.

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1 minute ago, Jim Marusak said:

they were rather sparse, so you could have missed it if you weren't looking at them for like 5-10 mins like I did. but the formations were weird none the less and you're also right. as for this evening, I'm waiting on the soundings, which should be out shortly, to see what we have to work with. Synoptically, we have a shot at something, and the short-range models are mixed on what may or may not happen, hinting at more scattered cells if it does occur. but it'll be an interesting late evening.

Yeah my bad.  I just looked at the 0z HRRR run and its now showing some scattered stuff popping to the west in a few hours. Let's see if we can get round 3 today b

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