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2016 Short/Medium Term Severe Thread


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gonna be difficult to get missed tonight. having terrible luck flying out of ORD lately....leave for SFO just before 4Z tonight. may be close.



Agreed, we look to be in a good spot for this one based off orientation of shear vectors and propagation vectors and tremendous reservoir of instability.
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RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 407   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   615 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016     THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   NORTHERN ILLINOIS   EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA   LAKE MICHIGAN     * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM 615 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.     * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...   SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  

 

  SUMMARY...A BOWING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL   LIKELY CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CHICAGO AREA   THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME   LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED ON   THE WEST FLANK OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND   SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE INTO NORTH   CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISK   INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  

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Parked downtown here in Woodstock. Shelf didn't look that great. Lot of action in the clouds behind it for a while before rain started and now just moderate rain. Winds kicked for a bit but really didn't get down to the surface. Really not all that spectacular. Holding out for a nice sunset now I suppose.



Edit: Spoke too soon. Coming down in sheets along with vivid lightning now.

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The latest 4km NAM shows heavy rain/possible severe weather in western Minnesota tomorrow. There's some chance that the severe stuff happens in the Twin Cities. Pretty high CAPE, moderate SRH, and moderate effective shear should around the Twin Cities by late afternoon.

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

The latest 4km NAM shows heavy rain/possible severe weather in western Minnesota tomorrow. There's some chance that the severe stuff happens in the Twin Cities. Pretty high CAPE, moderate SRH, and moderate effective shear should around the Twin Cities by late afternoon.

Pretty tricky forecast tomorrow with the possibility of morning convection wreaking havoc with the afternoon/evening potential. 4K NAM looks sweet, but the bust potential is high. I've lost count how many times I've said that this summer. 

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