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Tim from Springfield (IL)

2016 Short/Medium Term Severe Thread

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Moisture return has been better than progged today, with a tongue of 60 degree dewpoints making it as far north as I-80 or so. Overall setup still looks questionable but the slight risk is probably warranted.

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16 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Svr warning for 70 mph winds for Tippecanoe county and LAF area till 5 p.m. Eastern time.

New warning now farther south.

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KJXN 190011Z 26039G69KT 1 3/4SM +TSRA SQ FEW007 BKN040 16/13 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 25069/0011 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB10 TSB06 PRESRR P0030 T01560128 $

79mph gust at Jackson, also looking to my west and northwest it is nonstop lightning mostly CG too.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
724 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WASHTENAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...
  SOUTHERN SHIAWASSEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...
  NORTHERN LENAWEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...
  LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 830 PM EST

* AT 723 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR LESLIE TO NEAR ADDISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80
  MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

Wasn't expecting severe weather here tonight, quite the surprise to say the least.

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Is that legit? Wow.

 

Quote
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EST
FOR WASHTENAW...SOUTHERN SHIAWASSEE...NORTHEASTERN LENAWEE AND
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...

AT 732 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MORRICE TO PINCKNEY TO CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 115 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HARTLAND AND BANCROFT AROUND 740 PM EST.
  YPSILANTI AND DIXBORO AROUND 745 PM EST.
  SALEM AROUND 750 PM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
BRIGHTON...PINCKNEY...HARTLAND...PERRY...LAINGSBURG...TECUMSEH...
YPSILANTI...ANN ARBOR...DEXTER AND SALINE.

 

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Mesoanalysis has a pocket of 500 J/kg MUCAPE in MI.  

Over 20 severe reports thus far... we were probably pretty close to getting a raging/more widespread severe weather event if instability was a bit better. 

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2 minutes ago, IthielZ said:

Is that legit? Wow.

 

 

Nah they updated it to 65mph, that is more reasonable.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Mesoanalysis has a pocket of 500 J/kg MUCAPE in MI.  

Over 20 severe reports thus far... we were probably pretty close to getting a raging/more widespread severe weather event if instability was a bit better. 

Yeah imagine if we had double that instability.

 

5 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Roof damage. Damnit.

Yikes, shingles off or worse?

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Dang Jon, it must have been a good blow there. I didn't catch anything over 40 on my Kestral while out spotting. I did see some tree damage in an area where winds probably surpassed 50. One heck of a lightning show though. In fact, a barn got struck and burned to the ground. You guys are right about the instability, it could have been quite an outbreak. I always worry about these late fall, wrapping up storms. Sometimes I worry too much. lol

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Airport here was 39 gusts to 59. No power issues thankfully. Second year in a row November produce the best storm.of the year imby

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Plenty of uncertainty in the exact system evolution early next week, but might have to watch for at least an isolated severe threat in advance of the low.  Instability is weak (and actually the GFS is currently showing a pocket of about 300-500 J/kg SBCAPE, which isn't awful for that model at this distance) but wind fields aren't.

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Was looking at the tornado reports for 2016 and didn't realize how much of a down year it has been overall (less than 850 confirmed tornadoes through August), though not so much in our subforum.  In fact, IL and IN each have near/over 40, accounting for about 10% of the nationwide total.

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00z NAM builds some instability into central IL/IN Monday night into Tuesday morning (SBCAPE 500+ J/kg), but generally looks like it's behind the best forcing in an area with questionable wind profiles aloft.  I guess I will continue to watch because there's nothing else. 

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