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2016 Short/Medium Term Severe Thread


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31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Heavy rains continue across northern/northeastern IA this morning.  Could be some big time flooding on some of the rivers up that way.  

EDIT:  Actually the updated forecast for the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids is up to nearly 20ft, which is close to the old record that got shattered in 2008.

Yup, Cesar river at Vinton forecast for major flooding too. I'll include both graphs below.

 

 

image.png

image.png

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2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I was thinking the Cedar River crest would eventually be lowered, as often seems to happen.  A couple weeks ago the Turkey River crest in northeast Iowa was overestimated by five feet.  Instead, the crest at Cedar Rapids was just UPPED by 5 feet to 24 feet!  That would be another bad flood for the city.

Here is what often happens 

1- heavy rain falls in a basin more then predicted ..crest forecast in underestimated and  the river runs ahead of forecast points

2- next crest forecast catches up to the current levels and includes average precip expected for the next 24 hours lets say 2 inches.  But of course some places may get 1/2 inch and some places 3.5 inches and quite often the precip misses the basin all together or falls just  downstream.  This happens often in IA and IL since downstream is south and outflows often cause storms to form south of what as predicted.  I pay attention to the IL river crest forecast and the "newest" forecast after a heavy rain event is often lowered due to the predicted precip not falling where it should

So in today's case the the new forecast is based on average precip falling upstream over the next 24 hours.  I'm not sure what local offices use for that WPC or their local grid forecast

 

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Heavy thunderstorms are gushing torrents of rain over the same areas that got drowned last night along and just north of the 20 corridor in northeast Iowa.  Looks to continue for the next few hours as well.  River stage forecasts probably included forecast rainfall for tonight, but if these storms continue to train over this abused area, then river crest forecasts might end up having to be adjusted upward yet again.

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FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...   BUTLER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...   SOUTHERN CERRO GORDO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...   FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...   BREMER COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA...  

 

  * UNTIL 515 AM CDT.     * AT 1117 PM CDT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE IMPACTING THE AREAS OF   NORTHEAST IOWA THAT SAW EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT. SOILS   REMAIN SATURATED AND RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. RAINS FROM   STORMS TONIGHT WILL ONLY AID TO PROLONG OR EXACERBATE ONGOING   FLOODING CONCERNS.

 

IN ADDITION...THE LEVEE ON THE SHELL ROCK RIVER   IN CLARKSVILLE HAS FAILED AND EVACUATIONS ARE UNDERWAY IN THE   TOWN. TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE   THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT FROM THESE STORMS.

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From the evening of Wednesday June 11, 2008:

 

IAC031-103-113-121449-
/O.CON.KDVN.FL.W.0140.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CIDI4.3.ER.080609T0250Z.080613T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
950 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR RAPIDS.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  8:40 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.4 FEET...AND RISING. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS  12 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE TO 24.7 FEET FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT  24 FEET...WATER REACHES THE BOTTOM OF THE 1ST AVENUE 
  BRIDGE DECK IN DOWNTOWN CEDAR RAPIDS.

 

We know how things turned out...  The deluge on Thursday June 12, 2008 made for the 31.12 crest on the Cedar River on the morning of Friday June 13, 2008.  I highly doubt things will get THAT bad.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Next Monday-Tuesday has caught my eye.  Still a long ways off, but the overall synoptic setup looks favorable for a decent late-season event somewhere.  GFS tends to agree, and is quicker than the Euro to evolve the system at this point.  

Both show a powerhouse mid-jet of nearly 100kts at H5, with over 100kts in the upper levels as well.  Down low, the 850s strengthen to between 50-65kts on the new Euro.  Not too shabby.  GFS strengthens the system much quicker, posing a decent severe threat for Iowa/Missouri Monday, and then further east towards MI/OH Tuesday.  Euro evolves things slower, and has the main threat on Tuesday in the WI/IL vicinity.  

This could end up being a very interesting setup for somebody..

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17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Next Monday-Tuesday has caught my eye.  Still a long ways off, but the overall synoptic setup looks favorable for a decent late-season event somewhere.  GFS tends to agree, and is quicker than the Euro to evolve the system at this point.  

Both show a powerhouse mid-jet of nearly 100kts at H5, with over 100kts in the upper levels as well.  Down low, the 850s strengthen to between 50-65kts on the new Euro.  Not too shabby.  GFS strengthens the system much quicker, posing a decent severe threat for Iowa/Missouri Monday, and then further east towards MI/OH Tuesday.  Euro evolves things slower, and has the main threat on Tuesday in the WI/IL vicinity.  

This could end up being a very interesting setup for somebody..

I have been watching this one as well. Interestingly enough it looks a bit similar to an event on the same date back in 2007, which is one of the years this fall has followed.

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12 hours ago, andyhb said:

Certainly quite an impressive upper level jet making landfall later this week. Not a whole lot to block it from coming eastward either.

300wh_nb.na.png

...and of course the GFS does not amplify the trough at all.

06/12z runs back to showing an amplified trough, 12z run would be a pretty significant potential.

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There are some big differences between the GFS and ECMWF regarding the first shortwave. The energy trailing Songda never really amplifies on the ECMWF like it does the GFS. The result is a non-event early in the week. The ECMWF still winds up with interesting storm in the longer range though which is in agreement with the EPS ensembles.

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