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Severe Potential Feb 23-24


rolltide_130

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Are more supercells forecast to develop to the west of this main batch? Wondering what the hi-res models are showing for later this evening. As of now, my area (Hattiesburg) looks to be in the clear judging by radar.

I'm noticing some thunderstorms develop back in Central Louisiana, but don't know if this is going to translate eastward.

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SUMMARY...STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS  
ACROSS SERN LA/SRN MS AND MOVING INTO SWRN AL.  
 
DISCUSSION...VERY RAPID INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE  
ENLARGEMENT OF THE HODOGRAPH IS EVIDENT FROM KMOB VAD DATA DURING  
THE PAST 2 HOURS /300 M2 PER S2 TO 700 M2 PER S2 0-3 KM SRH/. THIS  
INCREASE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH 1-2  
MB PER HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG MID-LEVEL  
DCVA OVERSPREADS THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. RECENT  
SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS ALSO PLACES A DUAL MESOLOW STRUCTURE  
WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS SRN MS AND SERN  
LA. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING  
OF THE WIND PROFILE...EXPECTING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREAS WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS. IF  
SEMI-DISCRETE UPDRAFTS CAN EVOLVE ON THE SRN PORTION OF THE LARGER  
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...A HIGHER-END CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL FOR A CYCLIC  
TORNADIC SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. 

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RELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
529 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
   
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON
 
   
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.
 
 
..REMARKS..  
 
0417 PM TORNADO 5 ENE BAXTERVILLE 31.13N 89.51W  
02/23/2016 LAMAR MS EMERGENCY MNGR  
 
*** 1 FATAL *** MOBILE HOME WAS DESTROYED ON SONES ROAD  
WEST OF PURVIS. ONE FATALITY OCCURRED AT THIS LOCATION.  
TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE OBSERVED IN DUAL-POL RADAR DATA  
AT THIS LOCATION.  
 

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Are more supercells forecast to develop to the west of this main batch? Wondering what the hi-res models are showing for later this evening. As of now, my area (Hattiesburg) looks to be in the clear judging by radar.

I'm noticing some thunderstorms develop back in Central Louisiana, but don't know if this is going to translate eastward.

SuperStorm,

You may be the one who can answer this question.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
535 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
ALC129-MSC041-153-240015-  
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160224T0015Z/  
WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-GREENE MS-  
535 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR  
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE  
COUNTIES...  
 
AT 534 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STATE LINE...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF  
LEAKESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0535 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ALABAMA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY  

 
VALID 232335Z - 240130Z  

 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING  
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...IS EXPECTED  
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE 01-04Z  
TIME FRAME. A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR  
TWO.  
 
DISCUSSION...A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS LIKELY TO  
STEADILY DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MID TO LATE  
EVENING AS A 100 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THIS  
LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF  
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW /50-70+ KT/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING  
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE 01-04Z TIME FRAME. ASSOCIATED  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING PROBABLY WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL SURFACE  
COOLING...MAINTAINING AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AS  
STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS  
THE REGION.  
 
AN ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW NEAR/EAST NORTHEAST OF  
HATTIESBURG MS MAY REFLECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER FORCING...  
WHICH MAY TRACK ACROSS THE SELMA AL AREA BY AROUND 01Z...AND AREAS  
NEAR/SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM BY AROUND 03Z. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY  
BECOME INCREASINGLY PROMINENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH ISOLATED  
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE  
MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A SELMA/BIRMINGHAM LINE...BUT  
PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIVE THREAT FOR  
TORNADOES. THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...IN  
THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
548 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
ALC129-MSC041-153-240015-  
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160224T0015Z/  
WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-GREENE MS-  
548 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR  
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE  
COUNTIES...  
 
AT 547 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER STATE LINE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF CHATOM...MOVING EAST AT  
45 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

550 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 549 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED

NEAR HICKORY HILLS...OR 7 MILES WEST OF ESCATAWPA...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MOSS POINT...ESCATAWPA...GAUTIER...WADE...BIG POINT...VANCLEAVE...

HICKORY HILLS...HURLEY AND HELENA.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

554 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 554 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

WAS LOCATED OVER HURLEY...OR 13 MILES WEST OF REGIONAL AIRPORT IN

WEST MOBILE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
556 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
   
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON
 
   
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.
 
 
..REMARKS..  
 
0338 PM TORNADO 5 NW CONVENT 30.07N 90.89W  
02/23/2016 ST. JAMES LA EMERGENCY MNGR  
 
TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT THE SUGAR HILL RV PARK NW OF  
CONVENT. NUMBER OF INJURIES AND A POSSIBLE FATALITY.  
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND FIRST RESPONDERS ON SCENE

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

 
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
  WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CST
 
* AT 600 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  LIKELY PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER WATER AND LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM
  WAS LOCATED 28 NM SOUTHWEST OF FAREWELL BUOY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  40 KNOTS.
 

 

HRRR has this being a long tracked producer over FL/AL

 

 

126e4b19d152a69d3d329724d2c1b1c7.png

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HRRR and mesoanalysis are showing 500-1000j/kg cape across southern and eastern AL. The Mobile supercell will be in a very good environment for hours to come. On its current track it should be near Monroeville around 715 Central and Greenville at 8.

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With temperatures in the low to mid 40s through the North Carolina Piedmont and into upstate South Carolina and Georgia, and the 70s not far south, we can see a bit of a CAD signature. What, if any effect does that have on the severe parameters as they move into the area of that air mass?

 

All the best to the folks experiencing the tornadoes and severe weather tonight.

 

 

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