Severe Potential Feb 23-24

[Shawn]

66 hours out on NAM showing 2300 CAPE, I wouldn't put much stock in it at this point. But as I said earlier, with SRH/shear like that, you don't need much more than 750 j/kg for a serious tornado threat.

 

 

That 2300 is overdone I'd bet.  but the idea of a severe event is there and I hope more people pay attention to the possibility. I don't want any of that "didnt see it coming" crap.

[ClicheVortex2014]

SPC goes with enhanced risk. They mention potential for 500-1000 MUCAPE and possibility for one or two strong tornadoes. The CAPE values they're going with is basically what the GFS is showing. I would've at least taken a blend of Euro/NAM and GFS... go with something like 750-1250 CAPE is possible. Bad idea to ignore NAM and Euro IMO.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
0106 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z 

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN 
LA/MS/AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST TO 
WESTERN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE... 

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN TX TO PARTS OF 
EASTERN GA AND NORTHERN FL... 

..SUMMARY 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING 
EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS 
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

..GULF COAST STATES 

AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM TX 
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. A 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET 
STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PIVOT NORTHEAST 
INTO CENTRAL AL/WESTERN GA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE 
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TX/WESTERN LA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST 
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. A TRAILING 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA BY LATE 
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MS/AL OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE 
ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE UPPER TX AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS. THIS 
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MS/AL/GA BY TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL/GA 
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN MS/AL/GA WILL LIMIT 
DESTABILIZATION...BUT STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. 

IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY VEERING DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES AND A STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 60+ KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH 
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...PERHAPS 
ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE GREATEST 
THREAT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL 
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERE HAIL 
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN 
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH 
REGARDS TO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS 
CONTINUES...AND THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED IN COMING 
OUTLOOKS.

 

[downeastnc]

Wed has a lot of widespread slight risk but no enhanced at this point

 

 

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN FL INTO SOUTHEAST
GA...SC...EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...MUCH OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW
TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...FL/GA THROUGH SOUTHEAST VA...

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
INTENSE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS GA/FL DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS NC/VA
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NC WILL
PIVOT NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND CHESAPEAKE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
NORTHERN FL/SOUTHEASTERN GA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL
GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHEAST GA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
FURTHER NORTH FROM EASTERN SC THROUGH THE NC/SE VA PIEDMONT
REGION...STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MORE FAVORABLE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT ON THE NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL. FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NORTHEAST GA THROUGH CENTRAL
VA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE MARGINAL...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES STILL IMPRESSIVE. HERE...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

 

 

[NavarreDon]

Interesting overnight short term by MOB! One thing I have noticed since moving down here and is probably obvious to seasoned severe members. The immediate coastal areas are normally spared tornadic weather. While not always the case it seems to happen more often than not.

 

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM (BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH TIME) WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHOSE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING (~997 HPA) TO NRN LA (~990 HPA) BY SUNSET (~993 HPA) TO NRN
MS (~990 HPA) BY MIDNIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...NOTABLE 300-850 HPA
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE PROPAGATES THROUGH OUR REGION AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND PROVIDES IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL FORCED MESOSCALE
ASCENT IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
INGREDIENTS-WISE...0-1 KM SR-HEL VALUES ARE AOA 300 M2 S-2 WITH
HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING PURELY STREAMWISE INFLOW THROUGHOUT A
RELATIVELY DEEP-LAYER. GIVEN REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PLENTY OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS AOA 700 HPA (MESOSCALE COLD POOLS WILL BE
STRONG SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT AND ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT).
REGIONAL DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES TRY TO REACH AN IMPRESSIVE 7 C/KM
BUT FALL JUST A TAD SHORT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
INSTABILITY BEING A LIMITING FACTOR AS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MUCAPE
<1000 J/KG (SREF MEAN ~750 J/KG, LATEST NAM ~1500 J/KG) FOR THIS
EVENT. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TIMING DESCRIBED ABOVE...THERE WILL BE
HIGHER INSTABILITY ON THE FRONT-END OF THE EVENT WEST OF I-65 AND
THIS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
(NOTE - THE VERY STRONG 55-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL OFFSET
SIGNIFICANT THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY LOSS SOMEWHAT DUE TO STRONG
ADVECTIVE LOW- LEVEL PROCESSES). AM EXPECTING TO SEE DISCRETE
MESOSCYCLONES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT ALONG AND WELL AHEAD OF
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WITH AN ACTIVE SQUALL LINE JUST ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TIMING- WISE...EXPECT HIGHEST IMPACT FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY WRN WILCOX COUNTY ALABAMA
SOUTH TO PENSACOLA BETWEEN 3-9 PM...AND FROM 9 PM TO AROUND 5 AM EAST
OF A LINE FROM ERN WILCOX COUNTY SOUTH TO BALDWIN COUNTY. THE
PROGRESSION IS SLOW BUT GRADUAL AND THE TIMING WILL LIKELY WILL
CHANGE A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THE LAST EVENT
FEATURED SIMILAR MUCAPES AND THERE WAS A NOTABLE RESPONSE. SO...AM
VERY CONCERNED GIVEN THE MODEL`S NATURAL TENDENCY TO UNDER- REPRESENT
THE TRUE VALUE OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND THAT DAY WILL BE
SHARPLY COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOLLOWED BY A
COOL NIGHT WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- AND UPPER 30S BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. /23 JMM

[janetjanet998]

12z nam:  even overdone  20% percent:   a  moderate risk will likely be needed tomorrow on the next update over  southern MS southern/central AL areas and enhanced over NC/SC/SE VA  on WEDS

 

tomorrow evening and overnight look a very dangerous overnight tornado outbreak

 

will await more model data

 

also sometimes alot of convection develops just south of the area of interest(ie the northern Gulf or along the coast ) messing things up

[ClicheVortex2014]

Dr. Forbes has pulled the proverbial trigger

 

 

TUESDAY 

Tornado outbreak likely as a strong low-pressure system heads across the Gulf Coast states. Severe thunderstorms in middle and upper coastal TX, LA (except northwest), central and south MS, west-central and southwest AL, extreme west FL panhandle through evening. TORCON - 6 south LA, south MS; 5 central LA, central MS, southwest AL; 4 rest of area.

 

TUESDAY NIGHT

Tornado outbreak continues in MS (except southwest), AL, FL panhandle, middle TN, west and central GA. TORCON - 6 southeast MS, south AL, west FL panhandle; 5 central MS, central AL; 4 central FL panhandle; 3 rest of area.

 

WEDNESDAY

Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak continues, now in GA, east FL panhandle, north and central FL, SC, NC, south and east VA, east MD, DC, south NJ, east TN. TORCON - 5 central and east NC, southeast VA; 4 east SC; 3 rest of area except 2 central and north FL; 2-3 DE, south NJ, east MD. A chance of severe thunderstorms overnight in NJ, Long Island. TORCON - 2 to 3

 

 

[JasonOH]

Day 2 moderate out. Probs:

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1115 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO

SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL LA EWD INTO CNTRL AL

AND INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO

MS/AL/GA AND THE FL BIG BEND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC...

...SUMMARY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE

LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE

TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO

TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...

A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN

INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO

THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE

LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE

PERIOD. A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1

PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION

FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL

LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX

WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE

STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH

THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY

DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING

THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 

A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY

EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR

ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE

BANDS. WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL

INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE

SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/. DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT

OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT

FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW

OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR

TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG

TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.

 

[nrgjeff]

I like the aggressive stance from SPC. Wind fields are going to increase during the event as the upper jet pokes into the South from the Gulf. Although the jet stream blooms late, and mid-levels (500/700) will be a bit unidirectional, low levels from 850 down feature strong winds and impressive turning. Turning is particularly intense along the warm front moving north. No Gulf MCS is forecast so it should be unfettered. 

 

Some of the supercells will get started during the day back in Mississippi and southern Alabama. Unfortunately a lot of the action will creep north and east overnight. Areas once stable will become stormy so hopefully the public is aware. Event should stay in the Deep South per SPC charts. Boundaries left over from morning rain, again no ongoing MCS, should only enhance locally higher helicity. If those boundaries wash out, the lifting coastal/warm front will enhance helicity locally. 

 

Storm motion will be seasonably fast, but not as fast as they could be with the upper level wind fields this setup. Main issue for the public will be quickly changing weather as the lifting warm front ushers in the unstable air.

[5statewx]

RGEM at 48 hours (12z Wed) looks a little deeper with the low, and has a bit more clearing in south NC and north SC compared to the 12z NAM. Has the warm front pressing a bit further north through the same time as well. 
(Comparison of 12z NAM to the 12z RGEM)

[andyhb]

RGEM at 48 hours (12z Wed) looks a little deeper with the low, and has a bit more clearing in south NC and north SC compared to the 12z NAM. Has the warm front pressing a bit further north through the same time as well. 

(Comparison of 12z NAM to the 12z RGEM)

 

That is not going to be good if we see 60s dewpoints over that large of an area at 12z Wed. Forecast soundings depict classic Carolina wind profiles with SSE surface winds veering to SSW/SW at 700-500 mb. There's no funkiness in the upper levels either, owing to the still WSW flow at that level.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Euro basically backs up NAM, unfortunately. Showing a couple blobs of 1600-1800 CAPE in the current moderate risk area tomorrow, and also in the Carolinas on Wednesday

 

[andyhb]

This is quite easily the most potent severe wx threat the Carolinas have faced since 4/16/11.

[downeastnc]

That is not going to be good if we see 60s dewpoints over that large of an area at 12z Wed. Forecast soundings depict classic Carolina wind profiles with SSE surface winds veering to SSW/SW at 700-500 mb. There's no funkiness in the upper levels either, owing to the still WSW flow at that level.

 

the last super nino like this in 1998 was a bad year for NC tornado wise, the one below is sorta similar to the setup Wed....

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19980320/

[downeastnc]

This is quite easily the most potent severe wx threat the Carolinas have faced since 4/16/11.

 

LOL ugh rough day....had to work and missed chasing several large tornados, I would have easily been on the Wilson cell......

[ClicheVortex2014]

This is quite easily the most potent severe wx threat the Carolinas have faced since 4/16/11.

True, but I don't think that really says much. I don't think they've had a big tornado event since then.

[andyhb]

True, but I don't think that really says much. I don't think they've had a big tornado event since then.

 

4/25/14 was fairly substantial.

[Brick Tamland]

This is quite easily the most potent severe wx threat the Carolinas have faced since 4/16/11.

 

The good thing is that was a Saturday. Didn't have to worry about kids at school and people at work being caught off-guard.

[Brick Tamland]

True, but I don't think that really says much. I don't think they've had a big tornado event since then.

 

Considering that was the biggest tornado outbreak ever in NC, I think it says a lot.

[ClicheVortex2014]

4/25/14 was fairly substantial.

 

Considering that was the biggest tornado outbreak ever in NC, I think it says a lot.

Maybe if they've had a bigger number of significant outbreaks since then, but there really hasn't. As far as I'm aware, there's only been 1 tornado outbreak in the area since 4/16/11. That being 4/25/14. That event saw 1 EF3, 2 EF2s, and 10 tornadoes. I agree this event looks more potent than 4/25, but to say that this is the most potent severe threat in the area since 4/16 is giving it more credit than it's worth.For example... it'd be a completely different story if Andy sasid a tornado event in Oklahoma looks more potent than 5/3/99... because they've seen a handful of major outbreaks since then.

 

I don't mean to pick on you or call you out or anything Andy. Hope you don't take this personal... I get what you're getting at. This event looks nasty... at this time, it looks like this event will run laps around 4/25.

[Brick Tamland]

 

 

Maybe if they've had a bigger number of significant outbreaks since then, but there really hasn't. As far as I'm aware, there's only been 1 tornado outbreak in the area since 4/16/11. That being 4/25/14. That event saw 1 EF3, 2 EF2s, and 10 tornadoes. I agree this event looks more potent than 4/25, but to say that this is the most potent severe threat in the area since 4/16 is giving it more credit than it's worth. For example... it'd be a completely different story if Andy said a tornado event in Oklahoma looks more potent than 5/3/99... because they've seen a handful of major tornado outbreaks since then. 

 

I don't mean to pick on you or call you out or anything Andy. Hope you don't take this personal... I get what you're getting at. This event looks nasty... at this time, it looks like this event will run laps around 4/25.

 

 

Not if the setup is comparable to what happened on that day. It's not really about what has happened since that day, but if Wednesday could end up being similar to that day.

[andyhb]

Maybe if they've had a bigger number of significant outbreaks since then, but there really hasn't. As far as I'm aware, there's only been 1 tornado outbreak in the area since 4/16/11. That being 4/25/14. That event saw 1 EF3, 2 EF2s, and 10 tornadoes. I agree this event looks more potent than 4/25, but to say that this is the most potent severe threat in the area since 4/16 is giving it more credit than it's worth.For example... it'd be a completely different story if Andy sasid a tornado event in Oklahoma looks more potent than 5/3/99... because they've seen a handful of major outbreaks since then.

 

I don't mean to pick on you or call you out or anything Andy. Hope you don't take this personal... I get what you're getting at. This event looks nasty... at this time, it looks like this event will run laps around 4/25.

 

I'm a bit confused. How is saying this is more threatening than anything since 4/16/11 giving it more credit than its worth? I didn't say it was more potent than that event.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm a bit confused. How is saying this is more threatening than anything since 4/16/11 giving it more credit than its worth? I didn't say it was more potent than that event.

What I'm saying is that there's only been 1 significant tornado event in the area since 4/16/11. You're right that it's the most potent since then, but that isn't saying much because there's only been 1 significant event since then.

 

Not if the setup is comparable to what happened on that day. It's not really about what has happened since that day, but if Wednesday could end up being similar to that day.

Gotcha. In terms of number of tornadoes - doubt it. Intensity of tornadoes - possibly. But who knows.

 

Can't wait for tomorrow's event to get in range of HRRR. Could be some nasty/long-lived supercells down near the Mexican border today.

[Solak]

RAH is upping the ante, it seems.

STORM THREAT/GRADIENT WINDS: THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TOSEVERE STORMS IS GROWING... WITH A FOCUS ON CENTRAL/ERN NC. MODELSHAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING DECENT INSTABILITY (750-1500 J/KG)WED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROJECTED TO PEAK NEAR 6.5 C/KM INCONJUNCTION WITH VERY STRONG KINEMATICS... 70-90 KTS OF DEEP LAYERBULK SHEAR... AN INCOMING MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH... 50+ KNOTS OF 925-850 MB FLOW... AND INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE... ALL FAVORABLECONDITIONS FOR A STRONGLY FORCED QLCS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINEWINDS AND PERHAPS A LOW END TORNADO THREAT. I WOULD NOT BE AT ALLSURPRISED TO SEE A TORNADIC SUPERCELL OR TWO AS EARLY AS THE MORNINGHOURS... BOTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVELVORTICITY ALONG THE INLAND-TRACKING WARM FRONT AS IT WORKS THROUGHTHE PIEDMONT... CONSIDERING THE STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ANDINITIAL SPIKE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE WRN HALF OF NC. AFTERFRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU... GIVEN THE TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT... WESHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 30-40MPH LIKELY BASED ON THE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTED BYFORECAST SOUNDINGS. 

[Solak]

CAE:

WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATEDWITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREAEARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THEMODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JETOF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JETTHROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OFDAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADOTHREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDEDSHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURINGTHE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEARTHE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECASTBEGINNING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY IN THE CSRA ANDACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

[Solak]

MHX

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
EASTERN NC OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS WED AND WED
EVENING. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE...ADDED ENHANCED SVR WORDING
TO THE GRIDS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS,
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPC SREF PARAMETERS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICES PEAKING MAINLY BTWN 21-03Z.
0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 60KT...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. AREA
WILL ALSO BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET...120-130KT. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS PWAT VALUES
SURGE TO 1.25-1.5".

[downeastnc]

MHX

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE

EASTERN NC OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS WED AND WED

EVENING. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE...ADDED ENHANCED SVR WORDING

TO THE GRIDS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER

LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO

BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE

REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS,

HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPC SREF PARAMETERS

AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICES PEAKING MAINLY BTWN 21-03Z.

0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 60KT...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES 1000-1500

J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. AREA

WILL ALSO BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL

JET...120-130KT. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH

LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS PWAT VALUES

SURGE TO 1.25-1.5".

 

Yikes.....timing is for rush hour as well.......

[jshetley]

This event could be as big as 3-28-84 if the GFS verified with instability. It had -9 near CLT, with a large area of -4 or higher over much of NC and SC. 

[HWY316wx]

NWS in Peachtree City, (FFC if you are scoring at home) is very aggressive in their wording:

 

MAIN EVENT HOWEVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT AREAWIDE INCLUDING THE
PROSPECTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. VERY
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 100 KTS AS WELL AS COMPOSITE
INDICES SUCH AS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER SHOWING VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 6 INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GIVEN THESE FACTS THOUGH...THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE INSTABILITY AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH WEDGE CUTS OFF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND HOW
MUCH GULF COAST CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE AREA.

FEELING AT THIS MOMENT IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC ENOUGH THAT
NONE OF THE ABOVE MITIGATING ISSUES WILL MATTER AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITIES WILL BE
THE FACT THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE QLCS AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
WIND FLOW PATTERN.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

NWS in Peachtree City, (FFC if you are scoring at home) is very aggressive in their wording:

Mobile, AL graphic (disco not updated yet)