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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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ugh...this weather is sooo boring

This was hands down the worst winter of my life.....say what you will about seasons like 2012, but at least I knew we were toast, so I didn't have to waste so much time and energy, only to be disappointed by the two-headed cold/dry-warm/wet dildo. 

The weather was much nicer, too.

This season was a solid F......the only reason is doesn't receive an F- is because there was some interesting extremes on display, but this winter can DIAF overall.

 

The one consolation is at least the "due for a ratter" crowd can shut it.

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This was hands down the worst winter of my life.....say what you will about seasons like 2012, but at least I knew we were toast, so I didn't have to waste so much time and energy, only to be disappointed by the two-headed cold/dry-warm/wet dildo.

The weather was much nicer, too.

This season was a solid F......the only reason is doesn't receive an F- is because there was some interesting extremes on display, but this winter can DIAF overall.

The one consolation is at least the "due for a ratter" crowd can shut it.

Due for a succession of bad winters. :(

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I was getting a little worried about the lack of freezes this week for the maple season, that run makes me feel a little better. It would be nice get another couple weeks. Last year I didnt even tap until like March 10th.

 

Same here.  I think I'll be able to squeeze out a decent week here too but not sure after that but you're in a better position up there after that.

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I knew you would say that.

Below normal, maybe.....but not like this.

This was as lethal a cocktail of egregiously futile and maddeningly frustrating as it gets.

I was half kidding. I could see a stretch good for NNE and maybe ok here, but of course Mother Nature does not care what I think.
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I was half kidding. I could see a stretch good for NNE and maybe ok here, but of course Mother Nature does not care what I think.

 

Haha you're right that Ma Nature doesn't care what we think... but I keep thinking we are "due" after 5 of 6 below normal now, a couple significantly so.  Only 2010-2011 was above normal in that period.

 

But then again, going back further we were like 7 of 10 above normal in the first decade of this century.

 

I feel like we'll have our chances in a La Nina type regime though in NNE relatively speaking to other areas of the East Coast.

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Nice overrunning later this week forCNE and NNE.

 

00z EURO had a nice 6-12" for here, Dryslot, Dendrite, etc on Thursday/Friday. 

 

Not a bad solution for only 4 days out.  LCI jackpot with 12".

 

GFS is big hit for the western Maine mountains, but just not enough for here to LCI.  Once north of IZG though that would be a sweet outcome.

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00z EURO had a nice 6-12" for here, Dryslot, Dendrite, etc on Thursday/Friday. 

 

Not a bad solution for only 4 days out.  LCI jackpot with 12".

 

GFS is big hit for the western Maine mountains, but just not enough for here to LCI.  Once north of IZG though that would be a sweet outcome.

 

Definitely worth watching. There is a bit of a block in Greenland, and that is a nice nrn stream vort. The flow is rather complicated and fast, so I expect some model waffling. 

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There have been some big changes in the EPO region at the end of the euro ensemble runs. Looks like we'll see a trough try to push into the CONUS from Canada at the end. It would not shock me for one last hurrah before the month is over. I'm sure the typical posters will grunt and "meh" any chance....but that hemispheric look could do it, should you extrapolate. Stratosphere also supports some -AO.

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There have been some big changes in the EPO region at the end of the euro ensemble runs. Looks like we'll see a trough try to push into the CONUS from Canada at the end. It would not shock me for one last hurrah before the month is over. I'm sure the typical posters will grunt and "meh" any chance....but that hemispheric look could do it, should you extrapolate. Stratosphere also supports some -AO.

Wavelengths are really shortening by 2nd half of the month so all you really need is some cold enough air lurking close by to see an event.

There definitely seems to be a renewed cold source by that point.

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Wavelengths are really shortening by 2nd half of the month so all you really need is some cold enough air lurking close by to see an event.

There definitely seems to be a renewed cold source by that point.

I have always said that I see a potentially significant rogue event after the bell had already seemingly run.....no sarcasm here.

I just won't hold my breath and become frustrated if doesn't come to fruition.

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How so?

I would say that this terrible year was regression to the mean...

 

He meant me. However, regression doesn't always mean a 10" winter.....it could be a series of pedestrian winters too.  Ball park guess would have this area near 65" yr avg since 2010-2011 winter. :lol:   That won't last. 

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