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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm

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10.3"

That's a BS number.  They should be below 10".  They reported an erroneous 1.5" on Feb. 9 that was really closer to a coating.  My theory is someone included the snow from the day before in the 2/9 total.  I've contacted the NWS office about it and they said they would contact the airport observer to verify.  It's a trivial thing so I doubt anybody would ever look into it.

 

In truth, several of the many <1" snow events this season reported at the airport seemed a bit high, but who ever worries about a few tenths?  Local observers report about 8" for the season.

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Would love to lock in the GFS. That was tasty.

Storm looked like it was going to cut than hit a freakin brick wall and got shunted S of us.

CMC nasomuch

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Meh..Maybe the ski folks get some before that next torch

 

Western Atlantic Ridge isn't going to just give up the ghost like that. No way

Where's the Western Atlantic Ridge with this one today?

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Not built far enough west . What do you think is the reason we roast next week?

 

Next week has more to do with a massive trough digging in the SW (all the way into Mexico) and pumping up SE ridge...it's not really a W ATL ridge going nuts and retrograding or anything. The whole thing progresses eastward as the trough moves out of the west.

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Next week has more to do with a massive trough digging in the SW (all the way into Mexico) and pumping up SE ridge...it's not really a W ATL ridge going nuts and retrograding or anything. The whole thing progresses eastward as the trough moves out of the west.

Well this is just a crappy GFS run..but it shows how strong and massive that ridging is. Wolfy asked where it was..It's not ridging in as far west now or those other Feb dates mentioned as it will be next week. To me..It's going to be very difficult to beat that down enough for any substantial snow in SNE

 

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_28.png

 

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Well this is just a crappy GFS run..but it shows how strong and massive that ridging is. Wolfy asked where it was..It's not ridging in as far west now or those other Feb dates mentioned as it will be next week. To me..It's going to be very difficult to beat that down enough for any substantial snow in SNE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not arguing it's tough to get a snow event (it is)...it's just that the ridge isn't a W ATL origin...it is the SE ridge moving off the coast as the trough moves east.

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Scooter says mix/snow and Tip says no on the Euro

 

 

It's 7 days out...it doesn't matter. Looks like it may end as a little snow.

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Next week has more to do with a massive trough digging in the SW (all the way into Mexico) and pumping up SE ridge...it's not really a W ATL ridge going nuts and retrograding or anything. The whole thing progresses eastward as the trough moves out of the west.

Makes sense.  

 

Anything can happen this time of the year...from warm to blizzard to everything inbetween.  Time will tell.  It would be nice to get one more decent hit for all of us in SNE, and then let it be over until next November.

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It's 7 days out...it doesn't matter. Looks like it may end as a little snow.

 

well, i was speaking in context of the ggem/gfs blend... in it's own rite it may have something - sure. 

 

You know, that type of GFS solution can snow waaaay harder than the synoptics might snap appeal.   the overrunning ends up nealry upright beween 800 and 700 mb in that sort of thing and you can get some unusually proficient snow growth from comparatively weaker inflow jets. 

 

of course, as you say, way out there in time. 

 

it's been the plight of this year unrelenting

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Good, Bring on the warmth, Looks like we may crack 60°F here weds

 

Possibly the warmest day since Christmas Eve.

 

I still can't believe I had a high of 69F on Christmas Eve in northern Vermont, lol.   One to remember.

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Possibly the warmest day since Christmas Eve.

 

I still can't believe I had a high of 69F on Christmas Eve in northern Vermont, lol.   

Euro upgrade day 7 snowstorm across VT NH Maine 

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Euro upgrade day 7 snowstorm across VT NH Maine 

 

I think it has potential...its shown up on all the major models in some fashion over the last 24 hours.  Of course my knee jerk reaction is "not this year" but I also like stats and climo says we'll have chances for at least another 5 weeks. 

 

Definitely worth watching with those strong highs building in.  Sort of reminds me of the set-up in April 2003, which was one of the larger ice storms I ever saw growing up in ALB.  Daytime ice accretion of 0.5-0.75" in April.

 

Here's a statement from that storm from the BGM NWS... stationary front draped from west to east across the region (just like some of the model runs are showing) over the course of 24-48 hours with waves of precipitation riding it. 

 

Synoptically high pressure building in like that, you can bet there'd be some sneaky low level cold oozing south.

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY643 AM EST SAT APR 5 2003...SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM HITS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SYRACUSEAREA...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU...A FRONT WHICH HAS REMAINED STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS HASPRODUCED AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEWYORK.  ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON SURFACES IN THE REGION RANGE FROM A HALFINCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.  THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE CAUSEDNUMEROUS DOWNED POWER LINES AND TREES...AND MADE TRAVELINGTREACHEROUS.  ONEIDA...MADISON...AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES HAVE DECLAREDSTATES OF EMERGENCY DUE TO THIS ICE STORM.

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That's amazing. Maybe we can get that to happen in SNE while NNE gets deep snows from it

 

That's pretty much what happened...I'd assume there were some effects in SNE.  Will would know, haha.

 

It was a zone of significant icing (enough to have counties declare states of emergencies in eastern and central NY) with significant snow to the north (Rutland got 18").

 

I remember leaving home to go skiing at Killington, and we left with about 1-2" of sleet on the ground and 0.75" ice on the trees, and by the time we hit GFL to RUT area there was like 16" of snow on the ground. 

 

This map is based out of the Albany area, so no idea on validity in SNE.

 

2003-04sum-Apr4Snow.jpg

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