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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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I think it can, given dynamics and oceanic sea surface temperature anomalies focusing along the 40/70 benchmark, this should spark strong to rapid deepening. Maybe more than modeled currently, maybe along the lines of the CMC.

That's the thing about the Cape, as compared to other parts of SNE, it doesn't take much of a last minute shift to change the conditions substantially (based subjectively on the last two years I've been observing storms in this region). Thus, I would be hesitant to rule anything out at this point and you may very well be correct.

Edit: You outlined valid points that support the idea of a prospective significant blizzard for the Cape. Like you, I'd love to see the GGEM 00z run from last night verify...just don't yet see it as more than a pretty low probability at this poin5t. Verifiable blizzard conditions at Chatham is a much higher probability, though. Reasoning for being cautiously optimistic! :)

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That's the thing about the Cape, as compared to other parts of SNE, it doesn't take much of a last minute shift to change the conditions substantially (based subjectively on the last two years I've been observing storms in this region). Thus, I would be hesitant to rule anything out at this point and you may very well be correct.

 

I remember your chase last year with the blizzard of 2015, we got 33" here in Harwich, MA

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I remember your chase last year with the blizzard of 2015, we got 33" here in Harwich, MA

I distinctly remember that, and was thrilled for you! Must admit I, for one, didn't anticipate the further SE track that kept CC all snow through the event. Was happy being where I was in Scituate (and am still grateful to so many here who encouraged me to choose that as an excellent intercept location) for the event. However, if I had foreseen those 33" snowfall amounts accompanied by HF winds, would've likely gone to the Cape.

Congrats on that event, and here's to hoping you get another significant one, very soon! :)

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I distinctly remember that, and was thrilled for you! Must admit I, for one, didn't anticipate the further SE track that kept CC all snow through the event. Was happy being where I was in Scituate (and am still grateful to so many here who encouraged me to choose that as an excellent intercept location) for the event. However, if I had foreseen those 33" snowfall amounts accompanied by HF winds, would've likely gone to the Cape.

Congrats on that event, and here's to hoping you get another significant one, very soon! :)

 

Thanks, I don't know what the record snowfall for March is for CHH.

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I don't think tonight's run is as important as tomorrow night's 00z runs.

As I believe you, yourself, mentioned, I'm most interested in seeing how guidance responds to sampling with both the 12z and 00z runs, tomorrow.

Being that I have been following this subforum for the past couple of seasons and finding myself empathizing with you guys who actually live there, I'm hoping as much of SNE as possible gets something from this prospective event!

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That slight shift to the SE on the 00z NAM is not encouraging; need NW, not SE. Then again, we are talking about the NAM at 60 plus hours. I don't have a wxbell subscription so I'll be interested to see what you guys post regarding the 00z GFS and Euro...as I suspect someone will post the general overview before I see it. Another reason I like this subforum.

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No help from the GFS or GGEM either...what mild trend NW we had the past couple runs is clearly halted at 00z. Probably a scraper for the Cape and just some nuisance light snows for the rest of us in SNE...maybe measurable, maybe not. That would be my guess right now.

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No help from the GFS or GGEM either...what mild trend NW we had the past couple runs is clearly halted at 00z. Probably a scraper for the Cape and just some nuisance light snows for the rest of us in SNE...maybe measurable, maybe not. That would be my guess right now.

Good early call! Given both the 00z GGEM and NAM have a weaker slp E and SE of their prior runs, and there wasn't any further move NW on the 00z GFS (as you noted), probabilities of a significant impact on the Cape has certainly decreased; much less for the rest of SNE. Going to hold out hope that sampling may induce a renewed trend NW...otherwise, it's not looking too promising.

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