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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm


Baroclinic Zone

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Looking at the forecast for the global indices such as NAO, AO, PNA, EPO, and WPO you would expect a different pattern regime across the US for this period, however, we see a major east coast ridge...what would be the cause of this?  Does it have to do with the cut-off type low off the SE coast and the trough in the west?

 

(I was trying to post an image from the Amwx model site off the 500mb height anomalies for 240 HR from today's 12z run)

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Aesthetically that synopsis on Saturday looks really sweet though ... particularly west and north of I-95.   Wind field should be very light, and with 900 to 850 mb temperatures still +5 to +2 C and low RH under azure blue sky...it's going to probably run up into the low 60s and feel pretty spectacular out of doors in that sort of medium. Kind of sneaky under the radar nice weather there.  We're sort of pre-occupied with this mid week ridge amplitude ...but post it's denting down in the N arc later Friday into Saturday, that may actually be better. 

 

Also, machine guidance will bust a click or two or three cool at this time of year and that type of set up.  

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Agree-"it's" been coming since mid Feb and verification has been one hell of a torch

 

Not really...  unless "any" warmer than normal is considered so insulting that we have to dress it up in torching epicosity... 

 

It's been warmer than normal, but there's also been cold around...   

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Not really...  unless "any" warmer than normal is considered so insulting that we have to dress it up in torching epicosity... 

 

It's been warmer than normal, but there's also been cold around...   

 

First week of March was actually below normal temps (which was advertised by guidance fairly well)...but you wouldn't know it based on the torch rhetoric.

 

Probably it is mostly because we didn't materialize a good snow event out of it, so it's viewed as some anti-winter warm pattern rather than what it actually was...a week of cooler temps where we missed two storm threats.

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First week of March was actually below normal temps (which was advertised by guidance fairly well)...but you wouldn't know it based on the torch rhetoric.

 

Probably it is mostly because we didn't materialize a good snow event out of it, so it's viewed as some anti-winter warm pattern rather than what it actually was...a week of cooler temps where we missed two storm threats.

Fair point.   No snow makes it less memorable.  But we also did have 2 very warm stretches in Late Feb centered around the 2 last weekends of the month and several cutters which brought well above normal temps...it's easier to remember that than a snowless stretch of minus -3 weather.

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First week of March was actually below normal temps (which was advertised by guidance fairly well)...but you wouldn't know it based on the torch rhetoric.

 

Probably it is mostly because we didn't materialize a good snow event out of it, so it's viewed as some anti-winter warm pattern rather than what it actually was...a week of cooler temps where we missed two storm threats.

Yeah, Thurs./Friday of last week were impressive in terms of departures. High was like 30 I think in Woburn on Friday which was impressive.

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First week of March was actually below normal temps (which was advertised by guidance fairly well)...but you wouldn't know it based on the torch rhetoric.

 

Probably it is mostly because we didn't materialize a good snow event out of it, so it's viewed as some anti-winter warm pattern rather than what it actually was...a week of cooler temps where we missed two storm threats.

#2010ed

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Southern Maine/ NNE. What's the difference, a hundred miles?

From Biddeford to Fort Kent is 331 mi so as far as weather goes, It's a huge difference, Call it what you want but snow chances are definitely higher in Northern Maine then where he is at this time of year and especially this winter

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From Biddeford to Fort Kent is 331 mi so as far as weather goes, It's a huge difference, Call it what you want but snow chances are definitely higher in Northern Maine then where he is at this time of year and especially this winter

Whoosh.  I don't consider Biddeford, ME to be NNE..  Lakes Region N is NNE to me.

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In conway nh, ive had 5inches on the ground for 2.5 months now. We have had warm days but nothing way out of the ordinary. In the huge 09/10 snow year, incredibly, I had 46 inches of snow on the ground at xmas. The following week, we lost every inch of it. The fact that after that loss, less than a month later, I was measuring 49inches back on the ground was astounding. I often think about what it would have been like if the melt out never happened. 80+ inches of snow on the ground. Would have been awesome

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In conway nh, ive had 5inches on the ground for 2.5 months now. We have had warm days but nothing way out of the ordinary. In the huge 09/10 snow year, incredibly, I had 46 inches of snow on the ground at xmas. The following week, we lost every inch of it. The fact that after that loss, less than a month later, I was measuring 49inches back on the ground was astounding. I often think about what it would have been like if the melt out never happened. 80+ inches of snow on the ground. Would have been awesome

I didn't know that was such a good snow year in nne

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