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Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-27


snowstormcanuck

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GFS, Euro, and CMC are all in the same camp with a messy, multiple wave solution, which takes the storms along/east the spine of the Apps. Ukie is all alone with a single storm, so she's stronger and cuts up west of the Apps.

 

I'd argue the EURO is closer to a UKIE like solution than the GFS/GEM. Looks like a fairly consolidated longwave trough at H5 but it still manages to spin out two sfc lows.

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euro rains on us with first wave and then grazes us with second.   I wonder if this two part storm idea is legit.  If it is, we're doomed to a euro style outcome, but I can't think of a situation where two storms of fairly equal pressure came out of the south, one on the other's tail and taking similar paths.   

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eps day 5.5...looks like the ens doesn't agree with the two wave thing.   Looks like a low to WV with a stronger secondary popping east of that.  After that it consolidates over the DelMarva and heads northeast.  Mean snowfall looks good for most of Ohio as well.   Widespread 3-4" which is not a bad signal on a mean

post-622-0-16606500-1455912760_thumb.jpg

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The 12z EPS has the trailing wave as the dominant piece of energy. Much clearer signal than 0z with a low travelling from LA to N AL and W of the Apps. Redevelopment occurs along the coastal plane.

 

I think one of the waves going alpha male is probably the right call.   We, (Ohio), would probably do better if its the trailer since that first one could act to help tame heights out ahead of it.

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the thing about the ensembles is that you can't even count on them to give you a clue as to what might happen the next model run.  If we were to use the 00z ensembles to predict the 12z run, we would have expected a much further west track.   The 00z members had a few hits that nailed Chicago through western and central MI.

This is far from settled.

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the thing about the ensembles is that you can't even count on them to give you a clue as to what might happen the next model run.  If we were to use the 00z ensembles to predict the 12z run, we would have expected a much further west track.   The 00z members had a few hits that nailed Chicago through western and central MI.

This is far from settled.

 

If you compare the 12z GEPS to the 12z GEFS, the difference is huge. Lots to be sorted out.

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para brings the low to Dayton and then just sits over erie gives most of the sub a long duration light snow event....which is how that /\ snow over Ohio happens.    

 

Still has two lows.  I don't think I've ever seen a surface map like this before. (from WxBell)   But throw it on the pile of options.  We now have officially everything from a Chicago snowstorm to a mid-atlantic slider on the table.  :lol:

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