Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-27


snowstormcanuck

Recommended Posts

12z NAM actually did come a little further west with the sfc low, compared to its 6z run...which is why the snow swath is a little further west as well. IMBY back to the battle ground rather than right in the heart.

 

post-257-0-58400400-1456153656_thumb.jpg

 

...but it's actually slightly weaker with both the sfc and ul low...so it may have just been a "noise" level shift.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Another eastward shift and we are out of the ballgame me thinks. Local met Fabert putting out his snowfall map this afternoon, I'll stick with the 3-6" forecast. Just a shame their is not more cold air to work with.

I would think their won't be much blowing snow as the snow should be wet and heavy in nature.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another eastward shift and we are out of the ballgame me thinks. Local met Fabert putting out his snowfall map this afternoon, I'll stick with the 3-6" forecast. Just a shame their is not more cold air to work with.

I would think their won't be much blowing snow as the snow should be wet and heavy in nature.

12/28/15 had a ton of blowing and drifting despite the wet nature of the snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM actually did come a little further west with the sfc low, compared to its 6z run...which is why the snow swath is a little further west as well. IMBY back to the battle ground rather than right in the heart.

 

attachicon.gif12zNAM.jpg

 

...but it's actually slightly weaker with both the sfc and ul low...so it may have just been a "noise" level shift.

 

Can clearly see the Region of Waterloo and Wellington County on there. Harrisale..  :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

just no cold air to play with and a huge wide open warm sector

 

gfs_namer_036_850_temp_ht.gif

 

 

Not ready to even make a first guess at this point.  Pretty complex setup as Izzi alluded to.

 

Could really make an argument either way (nw or se).  On the plus side, still have plenty of 9z SREF members juiced/north...a little less than half the suite spits out over 12" at GYY.  Basically have 2 groups...the over 12" group and the 0-8" group.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't say non event (shows 4-5" for dtw) btw definitely sticking with being the furthest west model.

Anything under those amounts in this kind of setup that doesn't happen to often around these parts....is a non event. You gotta score big in this setup. No one cares about 3-5" of wet snow in late February. It's run of the mill.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not ready to even make a first guess at this point.  Pretty complex setup as Izzi alluded to.

 

Could really make an argument either way (nw or se).  On the plus side, still have plenty of 9z SREF members juiced/north...a little less than half the suite spits out over 12" at GYY.  Basically have 2 groups...the over 12" group and the 0-8" group.

lol

 

Weren't computers supposed to make this stuff easier?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anything under those amounts in this kind of setup that doesn't happen to often around these parts....is a non event. You gotta score big in this setup. No cares about 3-5" of wet snow in late February. It's run of the mill.

Well said.

Might as well consider it stat padding at this point. I was hoping we could at least go for sub-30 inch winter and that we'd no longer have to deal with long-lasting snowcover but this potentially underwheling event has a good chance of ruining that hope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can clearly see the Region of Waterloo and Wellington County on there. Harrisale..  :)

 

Still liking where I sit, although its going to be quite the close call. Thinking it'll be hard to avoid mixing. YYZ itself is probably going to see a good chunk of the precip go as rain.

 

Like Hoosier said, its too hard to make a first call yet (between track consistency and p-type issues), but I'll have one after the 00Z runs come in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still liking where I sit, although its going to be quite the close call. Thinking it'll be hard to avoid mixing. YYZ itself is probably going to see a good chunk of the precip go as rain.

 

Like Hoosier said, its too hard to make a first call yet (between track consistency and p-type issues), but I'll have one after the 00Z runs come in.

 

Yeah Toronto is out of it (as usual). Even if the track does trend east, the lack of cold air is going to be a problem. Warm air really prominent on the eastern side of the low.

 

I think the tri cities have a great shot at this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...