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Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-27


snowstormcanuck

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Northwest IL on the outside looking in as usual, but it's interesting to watch the run to run changes on the guidance.  Looks like another POS thread-the-needle type event that is stressful to track if you think your area has a chance to cash in.  Hopefully next winter delivers some legit spread-the-wealth type storm systems.  This winter has been pretty terrible in that regard.  Good luck to those still in the hunt, and congrats to those who get to enjoy the 75-140 mile wide swath of legit warning criteria snowfall.

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Northwest IL on the outside looking in as usual, but it's interesting to watch the run to run changes on the guidance.  Looks like another POS thread-the-needle type event that is stressful to track if you think your area has a chance to cash in.  Hopefully next winter delivers some legit spread-the-wealth type storm systems.  This winter has been pretty terrible in that regard.  Good luck to those still in the hunt, and congrats to those who get to enjoy the 75-140 mile wide swath of legit warning criteria snowfall.

 

Yes, yes, and yes! You've got it.

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Significant changes on the 06z NAM.

Best snows now are from NE Indiana to Detroit to Toronto (6-14") as the low tracks along the OH river into Western NY.

NW Indiana, Chicago and much of SW Michigan are completely shut out.

 

I can't believe we may be reeling this back in. I would have bet my life we were toast.

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Can't believe I've been up all night analyzing the most recent model trends, and familiarizing myself with the region, in case this system actually delivers as a viable chase subject.

All that aside, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a little more voliotility with subsequent model runs given the significant shifts the past 48 hours. I'll have more faith once better sampling data is incorporated in the 12z and 00z runs later today.

Regardless, it promises to be another interesting and stressful day of model watching and analysis for many. Gotta get a little sleep. Have a great Monday, everyone!

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The recent eastward readjustment seems to coincide with the partial RAOB sampling of the southern stream energy, which occurred at 0z. Perhaps it's not as strong as the satellite imagery was suggesting?

 

Anyway...EE rule in effect :tomato:

 

It's still probably best to wait until full sampling takes place tonight.

 

The models in the past have produced some of most wonky solutions during periods of only partial sampling. 

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The recent eastward readjustment seems to coincide with the partial RAOB sampling of the southern stream energy, which occurred at 0z. Perhaps it's not as strong as the satellite imagery was suggesting?

Anyway...EE rule in effect :tomato:

Also that northern stream kicker may be assisting as well.

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Didn't think the extreme NW runs would hold. Models were picking up on a big dog but should correct now that we have real data to interpolate the phase properly. Still like where I'm sitting... about 10 miles southeast of 12"+ according to the 00Z Euro.

Suspect the GFS will come more on line to the SE as well.

A sneaky coup by the GGEM which everyone said was playing catch up?

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Didn't think the extreme NW runs would hold. Models were picking up on a big dog but should correct now that we have real data to interpolate the phase properly. Still like where I'm sitting... about 10 miles southeast of 12"+ according to the 00Z Euro.

Suspect the GFS will come more on line to the SE as well.

A sneaky coup by the GGEM which everyone said was playing catch up?

 

Given it had the low in Southern New Jersey on the previous 00Z run, I would say it has been playing catchup.

 

It has yet to have any run-to-run consistency with this system.

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I can't believe we may be reeling this back in. I would have bet my life we were toast.

 

Colour me surprised. However, I would not be surprised to see this trend back further west. I've learned not to get my hopes up after 1 run.

 

We should have a much better idea of the track come tomorrow morning. Then those in its path can start worrying about the borderline thermals.

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The 12z NAM wrecks SE Michigan, except those east of the glacier ridge.

Even those on the east should get a healthy dose of snow... Just might see rain a bit longer.

There's a lower spot of qpf and snow around detroit, but a specific like that this far out means nothing. The most important thing to take away is that 12z runs have now seen some sampling and the nam didn't jerk westward.
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Would one of you be able to post the snowfall map from the 12z nam?

There's a lower spot of qpf and snow around detroit, but a specific like that this far out means nothing. The most important thing to take away is that 12z runs have now seen some sampling and the nam didn't jerk westward.

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There's a lower spot of qpf and snow around detroit, but a specific like that this far out means nothing. The most important thing to take away is that 12z runs have now seen some sampling and the nam didn't jerk westward.

NAM is west/warmer compared to the 06z run (Cleveland vs. Erie, PA).

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