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For the Ohio guys : March 09, 10th, 2008


buckeye

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I found ILN's afternoon discussions leading up to the March '08 snowstorm in which CMH recorded their all time record snowfall of 21".    

 

Some interesting things that I highlighted (red text).   

 

-96 hours out, (Monday) the forecast discussed a benign frontal passage with a few snow showers as a disturbance moves across the lakes.

 

-72 hours out it is mentioned as an 'eastcoast' low, with no mention of a threat for us.

 

-48 hours out and no real alarm bells, in fact they think the greatest precip will be across Indiana while CMH will be dealing with mostly a mix.

 

-24 hours out, the heavy snow maker is in the discussion and CMH is forecasted to get 4-10"

 

-Friday afternoon as the storm is underway, final call from ILN is 12-15" (we ended up with 21")

 

 

I didn't realize how bad the models must have been on that.   Now think of the DC blizzard a month ago when models locked in 3' of snow 5 days out.  Pretty amazing.

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Great finds and research buckeye. I started following models right around this time and only had access to the NAM and GFS. I was a huge noob and had no idea what any of the others were. I remember hitting refresh on the ILN page and seeing the blizzard warnings pop up and was speechless. It was then I knew we were in for an epic storm. Didn't imagine it'd be historic though. (I don't even think we met blizzard criteria, unless it was early in the morning when the ULL brought the heaviest snows.)

Because of this, I've been in search of or wanting access to some sort of model archives. I want to go back and research how each of the models handled this storm in the days leading up to that Friday it began. Just between the NAM/GFS, I remember a lot of "waffling" east and west which is always unnerving for us CMH'ers.

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Great finds and research buckeye. I started following models right around this time and only had access to the NAM and GFS. I was a huge noob and had no idea what any of the others were. I remember hitting refresh on the ILN page and seeing the blizzard warnings pop up and was speechless. It was then I knew we were in for an epic storm. Didn't imagine it'd be historic though. (I don't even think we met blizzard criteria, unless it was early in the morning when the ULL brought the heaviest snows.)

Because of this, I've been in search of or wanting access to some sort of model archives. I want to go back and research how each of the models handled this storm in the days leading up to that Friday it began. Just between the NAM/GFS, I remember a lot of "waffling" east and west which is always unnerving for us CMH'ers.

 

I'd love to find a site that had archived model runs.....not wx maps of what happened, but model runs.   That would have to be one massive database lol.     But yea, it would be cool to see what the models were spitting out leading up to this and what models had the best idea early on.   In one of those discussions ILN discounts the euro because it was closing off the low much earlier...and that's what ended up happening.  It also sounds like it was a coastal at one point, then a track pretty close to us, before finally verifying up through western PA.   I'm still stunned at how little lead time there was.

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pondo mentioned it in the other thread, but he said he remembers some big snowfall maps leading up to it....and I do too, right around 48 hours out.  I think the nam might have had a good handle on it ....I remember one of those earl barker maps showing like 2' for us but no one takes those maps seriously.

 

I emailed the map to John Corby on 610 and he emailed back that he showed it to Jym Ganahl and Ganahl basically gave him a 'rolling eyes' type response.  lol

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pondo mentioned it in the other thread, but he said he remembers some big snowfall maps leading up to it....and I do too, right around 48 hours out.  I think the nam might have had a good handle on it ....I remember one of those earl barker maps showing like 2' for us but no one takes those maps seriously.

 

I emailed the map to John Corby on 610 and he emailed back that he showed it to Jym Ganahl and Ganahl basically gave him a 'rolling eyes' type response.  lol

 

The Ganahl anecdote made me chuckle. I can see him sitting there thinking "amateurs". 

 

We had thundersnow in Newark, probably picked up a quick few inches during one of those. Did you experience that in Westerville?

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pondo mentioned it in the other thread, but he said he remembers some big snowfall maps leading up to it....and I do too, right around 48 hours out. I think the nam might have had a good handle on it ....I remember one of those earl barker maps showing like 2' for us but no one takes those maps seriously.

I emailed the map to John Corby on 610 and he emailed back that he showed it to Jym Ganahl and Ganahl basically gave him a 'rolling eyes' type response. lol

Yep, it was exactly those maps. They were insane! Lol @ big Jym! There seems to be many times that we can roll the eyes at him w/ some of the stuff he spews out!
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Good stuff Buckeye. From CLE's AFD last night  -

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.FOR THE  SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF STATES WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THIS SOLUTION ISGETTING MORE TRACTION. BUT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OURNORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...AND WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP MENTION. 
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The Ganahl anecdote made me chuckle. I can see him sitting there thinking "amateurs". 

 

We had thundersnow in Newark, probably picked up a quick few inches during one of those. Did you experience that in Westerville?

 

I don't know if we had thunder, but if we did it would have been mid morning Saturday when we had a brief window where true blizzard conditions kicked in towards the end.   I was out shoveling the walk, the winds kicked into high gear and it was a full blown white out.

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I don't know if we had thunder, but if we did it would have been mid morning Saturday when we had a brief window where true blizzard conditions kicked in towards the end.   I was out shoveling the walk, the winds kicked into high gear and it was a full blown white out.

No thundersnow with that storm where I am near OSU airport. I would remember that cuz I'm still waiting to experience thundersnow...

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I have to believe this storm is the closest I've come to seeing true blizzard conditions. Saturday afternoon the UL moved overhead and unloaded, white out or near white out conditions for a good 4-5 hours. The only thing holding it back is gusts were probably more like 30MPH which is just shy of blizzard criteria. Saw roughly 22" IMBY and was by far the best synoptic storm I've witnessed.

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I have to believe this storm is the closest I've come to seeing true blizzard conditions. Saturday afternoon the UL moved overhead and unloaded, white out or near white out conditions for a good 4-5 hours. The only thing holding it back is gusts were probably more like 30MPH which is just shy of blizzard criteria. Saw roughly 22" IMBY and was by far the best synoptic storm I've witnessed.

In Dayton we did have a blizzard warning, first time in 30 years since Jan of '78, and haven't had one since.

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In Dayton we did have a blizzard warning, first time in 30 years since Jan of '78, and haven't had one since.

 

Yep, Friday afternoon, right around the time of the lull, ILN issued blizzard warnings for the overnight into Saturday morning.  Like I said, I don't think we reached true blizzard criteria if you take into consideration the very short duration of strong winds.

 

I think that was our last blizz warning as well.

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March 2008 was wonderful, reminding me more of a January storm even that late in the season.

Blizzard Warnings were great to see on the maps!  Not quite a blizz in the Dayton area, but what a storm indeed.

Seems to me that we had a blizzard warning right after Christmas in 2012?  12/26, but not sure about the year.

I experienced thundersnow with that one.  Chilling

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March 2008 was wonderful, reminding me more of a January storm even that late in the season.

Blizzard Warnings were great to see on the maps!  Not quite a blizz in the Dayton area, but what a storm indeed.

Seems to me that we had a blizzard warning right after Christmas in 2012?  12/26, but not sure about the year.

I experienced thundersnow with that one.  Chilling

 

Yes, that was 2012 Boxing Day storm.   Blizzard warnings for western OH down through southern IN.   That was a slop storm for us but ended with a nice period of snow, I think we got like 4"

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