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March 2016 Forecasts, Disco


snowman19

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La Niñas depend more or less entirely on blocking and we've had none really the last 3-4 years. Nationally and globally though next winter will probably be an ice age relative to this one

Not even close to the time to even think about next winter but in the small sample size of Nina's that followed super Ninos, they have not been good winters (cold and snow) at all. What you absolutely do not want to see happen is the PDO flip negative this summer and fall. -PDO along with Nina's in general are very bad news, even without adding in the Nina's that followed super Ninos
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Not even close to the time to even think about next winter but in the small sample size of Nina's that followed super Ninos, they have not been good winters (cold and snow) at all. What you absolutely do not want to see happen is the PDO flip negative this summer and fall. -PDO along with Nina's in general are very bad news, even without adding in the Nina's that followed super Ninos

83-84 was very cold but not here, more so in the middle of the country

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Are we sure its going to flip to a Nina or is it possible that it could be a neutral state for next winter?

More possible than it appeared a few months ago but likely still a Niña. I think it's highly unlikely now we see a 88-89 98-99 or 10-11 La Niña, although I never was too big on that idea anyway

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More possible than it appeared a few months ago but likely still a Niña. I think it's highly unlikely now we see a 88-89 98-99 or 10-11 La Niña, although I never was too big on that idea anyway

Thank you. I assume if its only a weak Nina, that would be better for our prospects next winter. 

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Thank you. I assume if its only a weak Nina, that would be better for our prospects next winter. 

 

Holding onto the +PDO during a La Nina could also help as we saw in 84-85..95-96..and 05-06.

So it will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the +PDO persisting. Would be

nice to extend the NYC normal to above snowfall steak beyond the current 12 out of the last 16 winters.

Only 4 below normal snowfall winters for NYC since 2000-2001. 

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Even if it doesn't it couldn't be as bad as the SST profile was out there in 98/99

 

We'll see if the January +PDO predictor works out again. All the Januaries with a +1.50 or greater PDO like

this year had a +PDO continue for the next winter. That -PDO +EPO combo really got tired before the

flip in 2014 to +PDO -EPO.

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Both the GEFS and EPS extended the above normal temps from the second week of March right 

into the third as a Western Trough-Eastern Ridge pattern locks in. Thursday through Saturday or 

Sunday looks like some transient cold before we go above normal until further notice. 

 

attachicon.gifA.png

 

attachicon.gifB.png

Both of these models have done very poorly in the long range. I don't trust them beyond a few days.

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Gefs develops blocking near st pattys day. Maybe some snow at the of march?

Did you look at the Pacific? Even if there is an -NAO and -AO, what good are they going to do with a Pacific that looks like that? Where is the cold going to come from? There is a super +EPO being shown. That will open the floodgates for Pacific maritime air to flood Canada (source region) and the CONUS and all the NAO and AO blocking will do is bring down Pacific air. The +EPO will overwhelm and steamroll the Atlantic and arctic blocking since our weather moves west to east. Plus mid to late March? Climo is stacked so badly against you it's not funny. You have the equivalent of a September sun angle and long daylight hours to boot
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Since March 5th or 6th could be the last time we see a 32 or less, does anyone know if this is the earliest quitting time for a low of 32?

 

That March 10 500mb chart looks like a modified version of the March 29, 1998 period, called by 'some meteorologist' an artificially induced WAR in a weather wars experiment.

 

Here is a brief mention of the spring heatwave:

http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACON_Files/1998Mar_Report.pdf

 

But not what I was searching for.   

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Since March 5th or 6th could be the last time we see a 32 or less, does anyone know if this is the earliest quitting time for a low of 32?

 

That March 10 500mb chart looks like a modified version of the March 29, 1998 period, called by 'some meteorologist' an artificially induced WAR in a weather wars experiment.

 

Here is a brief mention of the spring heatwave:

http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACON_Files/1998Mar_Report.pdf

 

But not what I was searching for.   

Feb. 28th, 1942...

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