colonel717 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 EURO is east maybe due to transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 EURO is east maybe due to transfer. All models show a storm atleast. GEFS isnt great but lets see how the Euro ensembles look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looking at the low tracks and snow maps. The ensembles look about as good as they can 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looking at the low tracks and snow maps. The ensembles look about as good as they can 7 days away. Seeing those lows on EPS south of Florida panhandle just reminded me of 93... Certainly not comparing this to 93... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Seeing those lows on EPS south of Florida panhandle just reminded me of 93... Certainly not comparing this to 93... Well... moisture shouldn't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Para Euro fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Para Euro fwiw Nice to have that in our corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ugly run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 554 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 OHZ050-PAZ014>016-020>023-029-031-073-WVZ001>003-172345- JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-CLARION-INDIANA- BUTLER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-OHIO-BROOKE-HANCOCK- 554 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 ...A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN CLARION...ALLEGHENY...ARMSTRONG...SOUTHEASTER N BEAVER...WASHINGTON... NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...INDIANA...NORTH CENTRAL GREENE...SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...BROOKE...NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES... AT 550 PM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BROOKVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF TILTONSVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS LINE WILL RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE A HALF INCH OR LESS OF SNOW...AND WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO ABOUT A HALF MILE. RUSH HOUR MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON I 79...I 70...AND I 76 SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. LAT...LON 4013 7979 4013 7987 4012 7985 4009 7984 3988 8016 4023 8088 4120 7917 4112 7880 4076 7881 TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 292DEG 22KT 4114 7919 4025 8076 $$ 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Got hit by that heavy blob of snow. Hardest snow I've seen all year. Pure whiteout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I like the consistency of the big storm idea though. I'd consider anything showing that much precip a good run at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Got hit by that heavy blob of snow. Hardest snow I've seen all year. Pure whiteout.I'm getting it right now. It's more graupel than just plain snow. Sounds like rain hitting my truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Larry Cosgrove The talk about a potential major winter storm affecting parts of the Deep South, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard next week will likely be growing. The disturbance will likely be composed of two entities: energy ejecting out of the sub-Aleutian vortex, and an impulse moving along in the subtropical jet stream (tied very much to the Phase 6-7-8 banding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation). With the aforementioned mAk gyre pumping up a steep +PNA/-AO styled ridge complex, the two disturbances will likely meld in the base of a 500MB trough over the Deep South next Tuesday. It is way too early to speculate about possible snow amounts, but the unity of the numerical models with regard to this feature is pretty amazing. Therefore the most likely outcome will be a Miller "A" Gulf Coaster/Hatteras/Nor'easter event between February 23 and 27. Yes, I insist on a longer time span because the European and American ensemble platforms suggest a closed off, vertically stacked cyclone that progresses slowly from the NC Outer Banks to the MA Islands, then on toward the Bay of Fundy. Because the disturbance will be flanked both right and left sides by strong ridging, a huge temperature split is bound to arise by next Wednesday and Thursday. I can easily see some warming developing in coastal New England and Mid-Atlantic locations, enough to allow for precipitation to start as rain. in many places along the Interstate 95 corridor. But I suspect that most of this event will be snow, and potentially a lot of it. With a neutral/negative tilt aloft and inverted trough development over the Virginias, this could be a big snow/ice thunderstorm maker above Interstate 64 near and east of Huntington WV on up into the major cities of the Northeast. In summary, this disturbance could be "special". Knowing the numerical models often lose such immense systems after pointing them out very far in advance (in this case 15 days if the storm verifies), avoid any rash judgments about its potential until we get to the February 19 runs. More later....and by the way, there is also a decent shot at another big storm in the South and east in the first week of March. I do not think we fully shake off winter until just after St. Patrick's Day in areas from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Ugly run of the GFS. Yeah, GFS seems to blow up 2 lows one after the other and ride them up the coast just off shore. I doubt that ends up being correct, and we will see one or the other becoming dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Need that cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Larry Cosgrove The talk about a potential major winter storm affecting parts of the Deep South, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard next week will likely be growing. The disturbance will likely be composed of two entities: energy ejecting out of the sub-Aleutian vortex, and an impulse moving along in the subtropical jet stream (tied very much to the Phase 6-7-8 banding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation). With the aforementioned mAk gyre pumping up a steep +PNA/-AO styled ridge complex, the two disturbances will likely meld in the base of a 500MB trough over the Deep South next Tuesday. It is way too early to speculate about possible snow amounts, but the unity of the numerical models with regard to this feature is pretty amazing. Therefore the most likely outcome will be a Miller "A" Gulf Coaster/Hatteras/Nor'easter event between February 23 and 27. Yes, I insist on a longer time span because the European and American ensemble platforms suggest a closed off, vertically stacked cyclone that progresses slowly from the NC Outer Banks to the MA Islands, then on toward the Bay of Fundy. Because the disturbance will be flanked both right and left sides by strong ridging, a huge temperature split is bound to arise by next Wednesday and Thursday. I can easily see some warming developing in coastal New England and Mid-Atlantic locations, enough to allow for precipitation to start as rain. in many places along the Interstate 95 corridor. But I suspect that most of this event will be snow, and potentially a lot of it. With a neutral/negative tilt aloft and inverted trough development over the Virginias, this could be a big snow/ice thunderstorm maker above Interstate 64 near and east of Huntington WV on up into the major cities of the Northeast. In summary, this disturbance could be "special". Knowing the numerical models often lose such immense systems after pointing them out very far in advance (in this case 15 days if the storm verifies), avoid any rash judgments about its potential until we get to the February 19 runs. More later....and by the way, there is also a decent shot at another big storm in the South and east in the first week of March. I do not think we fully shake off winter until just after St. Patrick's Day in areas from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Therefore the most likely outcome will be a Miller "A" Gulf Coaster/Hatteras/Nor'easter event between February 23 and 27 of course this is the most likely outcome. Because in the meteorological media world every storm is expected to become a miller A bombing off Hatteras, riding the coast and burying the i-95. These guys crack me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well.. at least the 0z GFS had a nice track. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Early on it looks like a redo of last storm. Perfect track for us and not enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Its funny to watch all of the weenies in the midatlantic forum go into panic mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Its funny to watch all of the weenies in the midatlantic forum go into panic mode. They get spoiled with a big storm here and there and flip out when one misses them. Us, on the other hand, we're so used to getting missed, fringed, or slop stormed that it's pretty much no big deal anymore. Yeah, we get a little pissed about it, but then we remember where we live and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Therefore the most likely outcome will be a Miller "A" Gulf Coaster/Hatteras/Nor'easter event between February 23 and 27 of course this is the most likely outcome. Because in the meteorological media world every storm is expected to become a miller A bombing off Hatteras, riding the coast and burying the i-95. These guys crack me up. Gotta keep those viewers and website traffic up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Not sure why people would be so concerned with "model hugging" right now. Right now it is just general guidance. The details won't matter for at least another 4 days as we're still likely a week out from the main event. In fact it is possible the storm disappears for a model run or two over the weekend. Wouldn't be the first time. No sense in worrying about anything at this point other than whether a storm will exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.