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Pittsburgh, PA: Late Winter --> Spring '16...


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Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

MDZ001-PAZ008-009-014>016-021>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ002>004-012-021-
509>514-242030-
GARRETT-JEFFERSON-FAYETTE
RIDGES-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-INDIANA-ALLEGHENY-FAYETTE-
FOREST-ARMSTRONG-WESTMORELAND
RIDGES-VENANGO-CLARION-BUTLER-MARION-MARSHALL-PRESTON-RIDGES OF
EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN
TUCKER-OHIO-MONONGALIA-EASTERN PRESTON-BROOKE-WETZEL-
1233 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN OHIO...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND THIS AFTERNOON...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 45 MILES PER HOUR.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE SCATTERED LIGHT TREE DAMAGE AND
MAKE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT AT TIMES.


LAT...LON 4050 7891 3986 7942 3972 7939 3972 7893
      3921 7949 3919 7949 3921 7931 3904 7931
      3916 7983 3945 7994 3943 8054 3961 8094
      4048 8052 4061 8014 4150 8000 4163 7913
      4159 7896 4134 7909 4120 7871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 236DEG 48KT 4917 5527

$$

Dam. Crazy. Febuary. Last year we were -20

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WS for: Mount Oliver PA


Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA340 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016PAZ021-029-031-073-075-076-WVZ021-509-510-242130-FAYETTERIDGES-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-ALLEGHENY-MARION-RIDGESOF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-MONONGALIA-340 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY...EASTERNGREENE...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND...FAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES...AT 338 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF WAYNESBURG TO NEAR CASSVILLE.MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OFTHESE SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO THUNDER OR LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITHTHIS ACTIVITY.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MORGANTOWN...MONROEVILLE...MCKEESPORT...UNIONTOWN...JEANNETTE...CONNELLSVILLE...WAYNESBURG...WESTOVER...STAR CITY...PLUM...MURRYSVILLE...JEFFERSON HILLS...NORTH VERSAILLES...WHITE OAK...MONESSEN...CLAIRTON...CALIFORNIA...DONORA...GLASSPORT AND MOUNT PLEASANT.THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  INTERSTATE 68 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 14.  INTERSTATE 70 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 57.  PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 57 AND 78.  INTERSTATE 79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 21...AND  BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 22 AND 27.  INTERSTATE 79 IN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR MILE MARKER 141...AND BETWEEN  MILE MARKERS 147 AND 160.LAT...LON 3949 8010 4000 8030 4049 7967 3986 7941TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 227DEG 46KT 3998 8021 3961 8006$$CL
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Special Weather Statement


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

800 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

PAZ021-022-029-031-073>076-250145-

FAYETTE RIDGES-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND

RIDGES-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-

800 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN

ALLEGHENY...EASTERN GREENE...SOUTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG...SOUTHEASTERN

WASHINGTON...WESTERN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 759 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCMURRAY TO NEAR FAIRDALE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST

AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. LITTLE

TO NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PITTSBURGH...PENN HILLS...BETHEL PARK...MONROEVILLE...MCMURRAY...

GREENSBURG...MCKEESPORT...UNIONTOWN...JEANNETTE...CONNELLSVILLE...

VANDERGRIFT...APOLLO...GASTONVILLE...PLUM...WEST MIFFLIN...BALDWIN...UPPER

ST. CLAIR...MURRYSVILLE...WILKINSBURG AND WHITEHALL.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

INTERSTATE 70 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 57.

PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 51 AND 90.

INTERSTATE 376 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 75 AND 84.

LAT...LON 4069 7955 4001 7935 3972 8000 4026 8016

TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 233DEG 32KT 4023 8009 3983 7998

$$

CL

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12z Para has been consistent with rain to heavy snow next week.  Low rides to the south of us.  18z GFS has cutter with snow showers.

 

gfs_namer_204_1000_500_thick.gif

I wouldn't say it cuts under us, looks like a low goes well to our NW, then a secondary develops SE. With the blocking it might be onto something but really to hard to tell at this lead.

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I'm thinking the storm for 2-3rd is going to end up looking pretty similar the storm that we just had. If it bombs out enough nothing to really stop it from going to the North and West.

 

If all we are going to get is rainers followed by transient cold shot I'd rather the December pattern just lock in for Mid March through April! 60s and 70s until May would be great.

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I'm thinking the storm for 2-3rd is going to end up looking pretty similar the storm that we just had. If it bombs out enough nothing to really stop it from going to the North and West.

 

If all we are going to get is rainers followed by transient cold shot I'd rather the December pattern just lock in for Mid March through April! 60s and 70s until May would be great.

 

The 6z Para continues with rain to long duration heavy snow.  The low comes from Alabama and up the eastern apps.  Dream track.

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160225%2006%20UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model

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For the late next week thing, it really is going to depend on whether the energy phases, or we see each piece kick out separately and what the timing is. For example, here is the 06z PARA and 06z OP:

 

You can see it keeps the 2 waves separate, allowing the second one to ride up east of us.

post-328-0-46562500-1456429774_thumb.png

 

Meanwhile 06z OP phases the 2 waves together, so we get a NW track.

post-328-0-79639900-1456429887_thumb.png

 

Models won't know how to handle this interaction nor nail down the timing for several more days.

 

 

 

 

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