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March 2016 Pattern


40/70 Benchmark

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Well since I was accused of straw man.. I was trying to keep that poster happy. But my opinion is south of Route 2 is done with accumulating snow. That doesn't mean it's right. It's simply my opinion

 

Seeing as the average last dates of GTE 1" for PVD, BOS, and HFD are 3/14, 3/17, and 3/20 respectively, it's early to be ruling out accumulating snow. Especially out your way given the HFD number. Or should I check ORH too?

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Seeing as the average last dates of GTE 1" for PVD, BOS, and HFD are 3/14, 3/17, and 3/20 respectively, it's early to be ruling out accumulating snow. Especially out your way given the HFD number. Or should I check ORH too?

 

I'm just north of him and my average last date for 1" is 3/26.  Trace is 4/13.

 

I agree that it's early to rule it out.  Besides, my professor in college told me never to forecast in absolutes because we don't know unless it's actually occurred.

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I'm just north of him and my average last date for 1" is 3/26.  Trace is 4/13.

 

I agree that it's early to rule it out.  Besides, my professor in college told me never to forecast in absolutes because we don't know unless it's actually occurred.

 

ORH 3/29.

 

In and up is better, but it's not over for anyone.

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ORH 3/29.

In and up is better, but it's not over for anyone.

And if you know there's a somewhat favorable pattern after 3/20 those numbers are probably conservative. Averaged into those are the times where we torch after mid March and never come back for snow.

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ORH 3/29.

 

In and up is better, but it's not over for anyone.

Well this is where there's a disconnect. 

Theoretically no..it's not over.

 

But there are years when "you know" it's over or can recognize it's probably not happening..and then there are years where "you know"or recognize it is going to happen.

 

That to me is the difference. IMO again..this is just my own personal opinion, the pattern to me will not allow for a snow event that means something in SNE. As I've said 4x now..that's not necessarily the case for NNE.

 

Why my opinion matters or makes people angry or upset or whatever is baffling to me

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Well this is where there's a disconnect. 

Theoretically no..it's not over.

 

But there are years when "you know" it's over or can recognize it's probably not happening..and then there are years where "you know"or recognize it is going to happen.

 

That to me is the difference. IMO again..this is just my own personal opinion, the pattern to me will not allow for a snow event that means something in SNE. As I've said 4x now..that's not necessarily the case for NNE.

 

Why my opinion matters or makes people angry or upset or whatever is baffling to me

 

The issue is that you are basing it on nothing more than your personal feeling (speaking of bringing emotions into it).

 

Instead of adding value to the discussion as to why the upcoming pattern may fail, you are basically saying "it won't snow because it hasn't snowed."

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It's doing it again, tho -  no sooner than a veracious observation is made regarding any potential cold storminess at all, and the models seemingly in wait ... go out of their way NOT to model that possibility. 

 

The GFS was flirting nicely with it for almost 3 straight days worth of run, and the 00z Euro was really into as well...  Nothing now. This has been the creepy plight for months.

 

Spring is a fickle time - duh - but scenarios can be lost in the seasonal shuffle; probably should just keep an eye out there.  But I could also see the first week of April really going warm ... 

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The issue is that you are basing it on nothing more than your personal feeling (speaking of bringing emotions into it).

Instead of adding value to the discussion as to why the upcoming pattern may fail, you are basically saying "it won't snow because it hasn't snowed."

Well if you haven't been reading or following along and seen the countless reasons why I think that, then I'm not sure what to tell you. I've posted them several times in different threads. I'm not going to rehash them again. If that's what you think then ok
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But there are years when "you know" it's over or can recognize it's probably not happening..and then there are years where "you know"or recognize it is going to happen.

 

That to me is the difference. IMO again..this is just my own personal opinion, the pattern to me will not allow for a snow event that means something in SNE. As I've said 4x now..that's not necessarily the case for NNE.

 

Why my opinion matters or makes people angry or upset or whatever is baffling to me

 

Well if you haven't been reading or following along and seen the countless reasons why I think that, then I'm not sure what to tell you. I've posted them several times in different threads. I'm not going to rehash them again. If that's what you think then ok

 

Just scanning back in this thread several pages, the issue is not that your opinion makes people upset or angry... its that you've stated your opinion so many times with no additional added value.

 

And you can think you've stated your reasons... but if you read the threads all the posts are "its done south of RT 2"  or "the pattern isn't going to allow it" or "its done south of RT 2" or "the pattern isn't going to allow it."

 

There's no actual discussion there.  Every time someone makes a post about potential you make a counter post about how its not going to happen.  No one is saying IT WILL HAPPEN, but the pattern thread is about potential. 

 

If you don't want "the anger" then add something to the discussion or just let it be.

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i was trying to find information on the easter sunday snowstorm 1970 but am only coming up with a few hits in sw ct and the nyc area...4-8 inches of snow followed by teens the next morning...anyone know if that event spread the love to new england further north or was it a nyc/sw ct special??

 

From 3-29-3/31, my local COOP had 16.5" of snow. 

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We also had a hell of a snowpack before Christmas too. Snowiest December ever near my locale with over 31" that month. Nina FTW.

It would be nice to get a good snowy December one of these seasons. For one it's nice for the holiday feel between Turkey and Christmas...but also gives that feeling of potential for the rest of the winter. It's one thing to bank on second half snow but sometimes nice to get snow early and hope for a huge season.

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