40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 Dropping like flies..Most sense we done Eric Fisher @ericfisher 18m 18 minutes agoBoston, MA With 2 more storms likely cutting west again next week, it's just about time to say buh-bye to winter. #ThinkSpring Late to the party.....once we failed to muster much snow on the heels of the coldest air mass in 60 years, it was time to pack up the tent and prepare for the fantasy baseball season. #reachfortheglovebatandballs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Certainly possible. It's always difficult to forecast how fast the atmosphere will readjust to a new ENSO regime. My guess is that models are too quick to do so....Nino is not going anywhere right now. Part of me is a little concerned about a Nina following this type of Nino...but why not just get a dart board out and throw a forecast...lol. Nothing is high confidence. The ENSO forecast is pretty critical to South Pacific honeymoon plans, I'll be watching this one a little closer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The ENSO forecast is pretty critical to South Pacific honeymoon plans, I'll be watching this one a little closer than normal. Fiji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Fiji? A little east of there, French Polynesia. I'm trying to find articles about ENSO precip regimes there. I may push it more towards the middle of spring to avoid the best correlation times for ENSO. At least beyond the weekend there is good ensemble signals for stronger than normal troughing over the east, but the MSLP for the second half of the week is all over the place, despite good mean location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Dropping like flies..Most sense we done Eric Fisher @ericfisher 18m 18 minutes agoBoston, MA With 2 more storms likely cutting west again next week, it's just about time to say buh-bye to winter. #ThinkSpring What's funny about posts like this meteorological winter is over next Tuesday. Average temps are similar to early December so in essence we are saying "buh-bye" at the proper time. It certainly hasn't the worst met winter ever and we are certainly not done with snowfall chances. We are not really early or late. So bring on spring and everything that normally comes with it this time of year. It's not like we are jumping ahead and missing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 A little east of there, French Polynesia. I'm trying to find articles about ENSO precip regimes there. I may push it more towards the middle of spring to avoid the best correlation times for ENSO. At least beyond the weekend there is good ensemble signals for stronger than normal troughing over the east, but the MSLP for the second half of the week is all over the place, despite good mean location. The mean trough looks best in the Mar 4-10 time period for those still interested in winter. Tons of spread after that period as to what happens with the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 A little east of there, French Polynesia. I'm trying to find articles about ENSO precip regimes there. I may push it more towards the middle of spring to avoid the best correlation times for ENSO. At least beyond the weekend there is good ensemble signals for stronger than normal troughing over the east, but the MSLP for the second half of the week is all over the place, despite good mean location. It's probably one of those patterns that will bring a high thickness potential snow after whatever happens next week. It could get rather cutoff happy as flow splits a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Dropping like flies..Most sense we done Eric Fisher @ericfisher 18m 18 minutes agoBoston, MA With 2 more storms likely cutting west again next week, it's just about time to say buh-bye to winter. #ThinkSpring JB is hanging on-not sure what he's smoking-his video talks about this great pattern?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 It's possible we roll the dice and come up short, but it still looks fairly conducive to me in the March 5th-15th period. +MT/+AAM jet extension with MJO phase 8/dateline standing wave constructive interference and stratospheric vortex destruction post March 5-6th with full trop-strat coupling should yield the tropospheric geopotential height response in the high latitudes. I know folks are skeptical regarding the -NAO, and rightfully so, but again, the indicators we see going forward have largely not been seen over this winter. We'll see I guess. February didn't really produce to anyone's expectations, but it still appears that a favorable late season Nino pattern may occur. The MJO enters phase 8 on February 29th, so approximately 7 days later we should expect the downstream response, putting us in the March 6th+ period [which agrees with stratospheric progression]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Would be nice for folks to discuss the actual meteorology of the pattern and present reasoning insofar as certain opinions. Can't forecast based upon past disappointments / emotions, as difficult as that might be. February was not as productive as anticipated by virtually everyone IMO, due largely to issues w/ EH forcing and a poor strat keeping the vortex near Greenland. Both factors are different in the first half of march. If we roll the dice and lose again, it is what it is, but it would be even more surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Would be nice for folks to discuss the actual meteorology of the pattern and present reasoning insofar as certain opinions. Can't forecast based upon past disappointments / emotions, as difficult as that might be. February was not as productive as anticipated by virtually everyone IMO, due largely to issues w/ EH forcing and a poor strat keeping the vortex near Greenland. Both factors are different in the first half of march. If we roll the dice and lose again, it is what it is, but it would be even more surprising. yea I was thinking the same but you know how it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What's funny about posts like this meteorological winter is over next Tuesday. Average temps are similar to early December so in essence we are saying "buh-bye" at the proper time. It certainly hasn't the worst met winter ever and we are certainly not done with snowfall chances. We are not really early or late. So bring on spring and everything that normally comes with it this time of year. It's not like we are jumping ahead and missing anything. Some will have to disagree haha. All three months of met winter will be above normal temps with one being all-time high. All three months well below average snowfall in the futility range. I can't think of a worse Met winter, though your area probably 2011-2012 was worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Would be nice for folks to discuss the actual meteorology of the pattern and present reasoning insofar as certain opinions. Can't forecast based upon past disappointments / emotions, as difficult as that might be. February was not as productive as anticipated by virtually everyone IMO, due largely to issues w/ EH forcing and a poor strat keeping the vortex near Greenland. Both factors are different in the first half of march. If we roll the dice and lose again, it is what it is, but it would be even more surprising. Respectfully ... I disagree... it hasn't been the downstream pattern configuration that's been the problem. I've been heavily covering this - we've had a +PNA, the continental result unfortunately became a west-based +PNAP - which there is no guarantee that any given +PNA will mean a ridge over western north America has to be near 110 W versus 100 W. And that is a critical difference in the static position of the ridge-trough couplet across the U.S.; it has persistently caused deep layer amplitude(s) to curve early with the flow ... prior to 80w. That's not really an artifact of what's going on over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 should post this here Ginx snewx, on 25 Feb 2016 - 09:02 AM, said: I am going to go against my previous thoughts that we were pretty much done by saying I think a Major snowstorm is possible March 6-9th I like the period and signals. JMHO Perhaps more towards the 6th 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Morch uncancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Respectfully ... I disagree... it hasn't been the downstream pattern configuration that's been the problem. I've been heavily covering this - we've had a +PNA, the continental result unfortunately became a west-based +PNAP - which there is no guarantee that any given +PNA will mean a ridge over western north America has to be near 110 W versus 100 W. And that is a critical difference in the static position of the ridge-trough couplet across the U.S.; it has persistently caused deep layer amplitude(s) to curve early with the flow ... prior to 80w. That's not really an artifact of what's going on over Greenland. A further east PNA axis would have been beneficial, yes, I agree. However, we have had (New England especially) good patterns with a much worse looking Pacific. If you have a downstream block with a concomitant 50-50 vortex in SE Canada, the low heights in the Rockies don't have as much of an impact -- an amplifying cyclone in the Plains can be forced southward underneath the block. So I would still maintain that the Atlantic has been our principal problem both in February and the winter as a whole. In order to counteract that signal, we really need a near perfect PNA/EPO like the past couple winters with poleward ridging into the Arctic. February H5; one can see the major flaw has been the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Some will have to disagree haha. All three months of met winter will be above normal temps with one being all-time high. All three months well below average snowfall in the futility range. I can't think of a worse Met winter, though your area probably 2011-2012 was worse. Sure...I wasn't speaking of the entire globe nor all of human history (recorded or not). You must admit that it's funny that people are say "buh-bye" to winter when winter actually ends (met winter anyway) as if it's way too early. It's one thing to question the existence of wintry type weather this March (a spring month) but it's another to say "winter is over" as if it's January. Part of me just wants to say - "yeah, it is over. It's the end of February and that's when it ends". For the record, 2002 was worse here than 2012. I've had four winters in the past 31 seasons with less snowfall than this one and two warmer winters. I know other people have had a different experience - I'm not blind and deaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 should post this here Ginx snewx, on 25 Feb 2016 - 09:02 AM, said: Perhaps more towards the 6th 7th Bring it on Ginxy. I just want one this season. One snowstorm. Lets do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Sure...I wasn't speaking of the entire globe nor all of human history (recorded or not). You must admit that it's funny that people are say "buh-bye" to winter when winter actually ends (met winter anyway) as if it's way too early. It's one thing to question the existence of wintry type weather this March (a spring month) but it's another to say "winter is over" as if it's January. Part of me just wants to say - "yeah, it is over. It's the end of February and that's when it ends". For the record, 2002 was worse here than 2012. I've had four winters in the past 31 seasons with less snowfall than this one and two warmer winters. I know other people have had a different experience - I'm not blind and deaf. Yeah didn't mean to imply you were blind or deaf . I guess it "certainly" it isn't the worst... out of your 31 seasons, roughly 90% were colder than this winter and roughly 85% were snowier. Good historical perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Bring it on Ginxy. I just want one this season. One snowstorm. Lets do it. The GFS just served one up for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The GFS just served one up for you Love it. I have seen more awesome looking fantasy storms this season than any other winter I think. At least one run a day of the GFS has buried us, lately we've even seen it throw out like 40-60" amounts over the course of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Love it. I have seen more awesome looking fantasy storms this season than any other winter I think. At least one run a day of the GFS has buried us, lately we've even seen it throw out like 40-60" amounts over the course of a run. Dude, this one is pre-truncation! 144 is not fantasy range, it is track uncertainty range And it gives you about that much in that one storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Love it. I have seen more awesome looking fantasy storms this season than any other winter I think. At least one run a day of the GFS has buried us, lately we've even seen it throw out like 40-60" amounts over the course of a run. That's a happy hour run if I've ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 That's a happy hour run if I've ever seen one. Probably should take this to the model thread, but it looks like the 12z ensemble mean which also included a cluster of members. This last storm, on the other hand, had a decent looking mean but no clustering support for a mean track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Probably should take this to the model thread, but it looks like the 12z ensemble mean which also included a cluster of members. This last storm, on the other hand, had a decent looking mean but no clustering support for a mean track. The EPS support definitely shifted for the better (more lows near the mean) at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Weeklies agree with ENS and effectively end winter thru week 3. Week 4 looks like a miserable spring period could set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Weeklies agree with ENS and effectively end winter thru week 3. Week 4 looks like a miserable spring period could set upA shock heard round the world if winter in SNE effectively ended March 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Weeklies agree with ENS and effectively end winter thru week 3. Week 4 looks like a miserable spring period could set up Flow is right from the pacific and week 3 like you said looks torchy that spills into week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Flow is right from the pacific and week 3 like you said looks torchy that spills into week 4.I just can't fathom spring weather in spring,unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Weeklies agree with ENS and effectively end winter thru week 3. Week 4 looks like a miserable spring period could set up Winter does end late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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