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nj2va

President's Day Storm Obs & Nowcasting

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That high is very tough and not only is it not off coast of Maine and rapidly moving away, it's over western Maine and still pressing down. Gotta get those darker echos further north but bit of a non warm fly in the ointment right now

The high is actually west of that per SPC mesoanalysis. Stretched from about eastern NY down the coast to this area. 

 

But, it's basically exactly where forecast. Just not much indication it would be precipitating this early from the globals at the least.

 

Ls8jTRJ.png

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The high is actually west of that per SPC mesoanalysis. Stretched from about eastern NY down the coast to this area.

But, it's basically exactly where forecast. Just not much indication it would be precipitating this early from the globals at the least.

Ls8jTRJ.png

My recollection is that the models 48 hours ago(perhaps 60-72)had the high just east of Maine at 6z Monday morning

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The high is actually west of that per SPC mesoanalysis. Stretched from about eastern NY down the coast to this area. 

 

But, it's basically exactly where forecast. Just not much indication it would be precipitating this early from the globals at the least.

 

Ls8jTRJ.png

agree this is WAY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE!

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IDK Bob, it's flat laying down out here now.

Very nice to hear that good rates are that far north. Looks good the next couple hours for our yards. I'm just getting going with some dust on the windshields.

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Harrisonburg is at ~ 500-600 ' elev. They are sort of the Mappy of the Shenandoah Valley.

Winchester is around 800 and elevation actually increases as you go "south", up the Valley. Harrisonburg is around 1200 or 1300. The Staunton area is even higher.

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My recollection is that the models 48 hours ago had the high just east of Maine at 6z Monday morning

That's as far back as I can get the Euro but at 6z it was mostly targeting western Mass in the last few days. Due south of Maine by 18z. DCA has SE winds since 6, Dulles has SE winds since 8, so unless we get in situ CAD to strongly take over the process is already underway. This stuff is way early overall.. as recently as yesterday the consensus for accumulated QPF was like 9z or a little earlier right around here. Always been a case that early is good.

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SN in Herndon.  Roads and sidewalks white.  Already they 2nd best event of the winter for my backyard. 

How's the flake size?

 

Sincerely,

A concerned weenie ahead of the band

 

Nvm, Manatee already answered

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I saw a report pop up in harrisonburg with 2". Seems kinda high for the amount of time it's been snowing. Or its really high ratio stuff.

My friend is at Massanuten and i just got off the phone with him and he said he just measured 1.4".

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