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NCSNOW

Valentine's Day Storm Obs

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It's above freezing right now over Lake Eerie, Southwest Pennsylvania, and New york city. And it's below Freezing in Lavonia, Ga. You don't see that everyday.

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Just drove through Travelers Rest, SC... Almost didn't drive out. Wrecks everywhere and tractor trailers stuck on HWY 25 trying to make it up the steeper grades. Watched a car doing circles as it went by in the opposite direction. Of course, going too fast for conditions.

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Down in SW Forsyth County, my temp has rose to 31.3 with a light shower. I believe by the time the heavy stuff arrives we will be at or over freezing. That's a good thing since my power should be working in the morning!

Appalachian Wedge = Meteorologists Nightmare

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It's 29.5 here - nothing falling at the moment. Went outside and everything is frozen solid. The trees are bending under the weigh of the ice. I've seen enough ice now. Don't want the heavy precip. to get here from update SC with these temps.

 

Hope SuperJames is right about temps rising above freezing before it gets here....

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temp is up to 29.2 this heavy rain is warming it up, will probably get above freezing by midnight or shortly after!

I have a question on ground temps. I know A lot are taking about air temps getting above freezing but what about the ground temps?With the cold last week and frozen groung plus a couplecin of snow/iicewon't it take a while for the ground and roads to warm up?Just a thought

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Local weather station near my house reported 27.7 less than 10 min ago, now reporting 30.2* It's definitely warming.quickly as the wedge gets squeezed out and should be all rain soon which is good as it is coming down fairly heavily. 

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It's 29.5 here - nothing falling at the moment. Went outside and everything is frozen solid. The trees are bending under the weigh of the ice. I've seen enough ice now. Don't want the heavy precip. to get here from update SC with these temps.

 

Hope SuperJames is right about temps rising above freezing before it gets here....

 

The rain is what will warm you up, its in the low to mid 40's at 850 so the rain will be warmer than the surface making it tough to accumulate and the release of the heat it has should get you above freezing without to much more accumulation if any at all. Once the temps go above freezing the trees will melt out fast which is good since its gonna get windy....

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This storm still caused a lot of trouble as is but we could have really been in for a doozy if the high stayed in place and we had a little more southerly track. What a complex system to track.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I have a question on ground temps. I know A lot are taking about air temps getting above freezing but what about the ground temps?With the cold last week and frozen groung plus a couplecin of snow/iicewon't it take a while for the ground and roads to warm up?Just a thought

That's a good question, and yes it makes sense to me! I remember one time years ago after a very cold spell rain moved in and Boone NC was reporting freezing rain and 37 degrees. They said on TV that morning it was because all surfaces was so cold it was freezing, so yes you got a good point there.... 29.5 here now

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The rain is what will warm you up, its in the low to mid 40's at 850 so the rain will be warmer than the surface making it tough to accumulate and the release of the heat it has should get you above freezing without to much more accumulation if any at all. Once the temps go above freezing the trees will melt out fast which is good since its gonna get windy....

Thanks, that info will help me to sleep tonight! lol

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It's 29.5 here - nothing falling at the moment. Went outside and everything is frozen solid. The trees are bending under the weigh of the ice. I've seen enough ice now. Don't want the heavy precip. to get here from update SC with these temps.

 

Hope SuperJames is right about temps rising above freezing before it gets here....

 

I'd have to think the latent heat release from that heavy band will shoot us over to 32-33, regardless.  I am a bit surprised we're still at 30, though.  Looks like we won't break freezing by midnight, as expected (EDIT: As soon as I say that, we hit 32 at the 12 AM obs, so scratch that!).  Looks like RAH extended our WSW to 7 AM at around 10 PM tonight just in case (no way we're still below freezing at that point, though).

 

I notice our local mets aren't buying the models shooting our temperatures into the 50s by daybreak, though.  Looks like they're going with around 40 at daybreak, which seems realistic.  A lot of the modeling wants us to shoot up 15 degrees during heavy precip.  Of course, we should be in the upper 40s or low 50s by tomorrow afternoon, however.

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Well, KGSO just hit 32 at the midnight observation, actually, so right on time!  Haha.  Interesting event.  The ZR portion this evening definitely overperformed and I think we met warning criteria between the snow event last night and tonight's ZR-fest.

 

Now, can we maybe pull a miracle and get a real SNOW storm before winter is over?

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Well, KGSO just hit 32 at the midnight observation, actually, so right on time!  Haha.  Interesting event.  The ZR portion this evening definitely overperformed and I think we met warning criteria between the snow event last night and tonight's ZR-fest.

 

Now, can we maybe pull a miracle and get a real SNOW storm before winter is over?

Very heavy band of ZR just went through. Temp is up to 31. Wish it'd rise quickly here like it has at GSO.

 

It would be great to get one more chance at a "decent" snowfall (i.e. more than 4")!!

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Well, we've "skyrocketed" to 26F after we began our ascent from our low of 19F at 9:00am.

 

Off and on ZR, some power outages to my east. Just hoping the power stays on at this point. We've definitely got ice accrual, just not sure how much. This is definitely CAD city baby!

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