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Presidents Day storm Part 2


Ji

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4k nam is much better then 12k. My fear is still that the initial thump is to our south. The west to east band ahead of the low is mostly from the waa associated with the northern system running into the cold. That is aimed mostly to our south. We're too deep into the cold. But once the southern system starts to ride north and the flow backs ahead of it that waa lift shuts off. The focus becomes along the boundary the low will ride and that's to our west. There isn't much waa precip east of it because with all the ridging in front the cold is going to rave out without much resistance once the flow backs out of the south. No resistance to lift. So the waa thump goes south. Dry slot with spotty stuff then we warm befire the heavy stuff gets in from the the west. I'm not sold it happens but some runs are hinting at it and I can see why it could happen and maybe should.

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I don't know about you, but I'd like to have good archived pages for these events...

 

Take this banterous argument about banter to banter, you bantereres! 

 

 

4k nam is much better then 12k. My fear is still that the initial thump is to our south. The west to east band ahead of the low is mostly from the waa associated with the northern system running into the cold. That is aimed mostly to our south. We're too deep into the cold. But once the southern system starts to ride north and the flow backs ahead of it that waa lift shuts off. The focus becomes along the boundary the low will ride and that's to our west. There isn't much waa precip east of it because with all the ridging in front the cold is going to rave out without much resistance once the flow backs out of the south. No resistance to lift. So the waa thump goes south. Dry slot with spotty stuff then we warm befire the heavy stuff gets in from the the west. I'm not sold it happens but some runs are hinting at it and I can see why it could happen and maybe should.

 

I mentioned how you said it a couple pages back.... seems like the models are keying on a heavier swath in South Central VA somewhere... would love that to trend up towards us in the lead-up.

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4k nam is much better then 12k. My fear is still that the initial thump is to our south. The west to east band ahead of the low is mostly from the waa associated with the northern system running into the cold. That is aimed mostly to our south. We're too deep into the cold. But once the southern system starts to ride north and the flow backs ahead of it that waa lift shuts off. The focus becomes along the boundary the low will ride and that's to our west. There isn't much waa precip east of it because with all the ridging in front the cold is going to rave out without much resistance once the flow backs out of the south. No resistance to lift. So the waa thump goes south. Dry slot with spotty stuff then we warm befire the heavy stuff gets in from the the west. I'm not sold it happens but some runs are hinting at it and I can see why it could happen and maybe should.

You should be a professional meteorologist for the NWS who only forecasts bust scenarios.

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32 degrees and rain is not an ice storm. It's just cold rain. Ice storms in the urban corridor require entrenched cold in the 20s.

 

I disagree. With the cold air leading up to it, and snow already on the ground, rain with temperatures at or a little above freezing could still be icy. Its 10 degrees right now. Its not going to get much warmer tomorrow or even Monday. 

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Come on guys. New model data comes out and there's a 4-1 ratio of useless vs actual analysis posts. I cleaned it up in case anybody is wondering where 20 non analysis posts went. Mike, focus on clean analysis please. We're inside 48 hours and it's a tricky event. Sarcastic posts that derail have no value.

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As Matt said earlier, globals may not be the best tools for surface temps with this. Looks like we're converging on losing the midlevels around 0z tues across guidance. The nam twins could be too cold at the surface but the globals could be too warm from 0-6z tues. Past history would say colder is favored but high position off the coast makes it a really tough call.

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32 degrees and rain is not an ice storm. It's just cold rain. Ice storms in the urban corridor require entrenched cold in the 20s.

 

not necessarily an ice storm, especially in the heat islands, but when you're in the mid teens on monday morning  in the midst of a fresh air mass, it is a different setup than being 32 at 8pm after an afternoon high of 43.  I think at some point the complex is just too overwhelming to stave off, but particularly for the favored areas, this idea of a driving rainstorm Monday evening seems less and less likely.  Which makes sense.  The models don't handle the surface well, and it is hard to scour out fresh cold air even with a retreating high.  We've seen it over and over.  

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Come on guys. New model data comes out and there's a 4-1 ratio of useless vs actual analysis posts. I cleaned it up in case anybody is wondering where 20 non analysis posts went. Mike, focus on clean analysis please. We're inside 48 hours and it's a tricky event. Sarcastic posts that derail have no value.

 

Bob, I respect you, but if you look at the pages back me and ers-wxman were both doing detailed pbp of the NAM... I made one sarcastic posts that half of the board seemed to get... and suddenly got attacked while at least two Winchester guy sarcastically mourned about their 0.1" of precipitation. 

 

 

And also, RGEM looks marginally warmer at the surface than the NAM... would probably mean less ice, especially for the non-favored areas.

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I disagree. With the cold air leading up to it, and snow already on the ground, rain with temperatures at or a little above freezing could still be icy. Its 10 degrees right now. Its not going to get much warmer tomorrow or even Monday. 

 

The intensity of the rain matters a lot.  Moderate to heavy rain is not going to acrete significantly at or near freezing.  Not to mention, water has a very high specific heat, and a much greater thermal conductivity than air.  Therefore, rain will quickly bring the surface temp to the temperature of the rain.  I don't think the cold ground matters for very long.

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The intensity of the rain matters a lot.  Moderate to heavy rain is not going to acrete significantly at or near freezing.  Not to mention, water has a very high specific heat, and a much greater thermal conductivity than air.  Therefore, rain will quickly bring the surface temp to the temperature of the rain.  I don't think the cold ground matters for very long.

 

But the NAM doesn't look like it has the moderate to heavy precipitation when the prime icing time is... more dryslotty and scattered per simulated radar when surface temps are below freezing, at least in and around the cities.

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Huge differences between the op and 4k in the amount of precip.

Through 60 there's actually more precip on the op than the 4K. Op is 0.75 - 1.00 and the 4K is 0.6. The thing about the 4K is that it never goes above freezing at the surface, moves the 850 line north for about 6 hours and then collapses it right back, and is bringing heavy precip at 60.

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But the NAM doesn't look like it has the moderate to heavy precipitation when the prime icing time is... more dryslotty and scattered per simulated radar when surface temps are below freezing, at least in and around the cities.

 

That would certainly help then.  If you like ice that is..... I couldn't care less for it, unless it's over top 6"+ of snow.

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