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Presidents Day storm Part 2

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Thanks Bob and Ian. Any difference between a waa and a warm front?

Advection is the movement of air usually along a front (warm or cold)

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The set up was different.  Anyway, that storm was a personal favorite.

Gotcha, yeah reading through the obs, It trended way better the day before and we got dumped on. I love that kind! The way I look at it, we have nothing to lose. This may surprise us too.

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feb 21, 2015 was one of my favorites as well.  great daytime event.  didn't flip to sleet/rain untiil after sunset and by then it was pretty much over.

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Can't find a lot to be optimistic about right now. The srefs continue to look wetter, especially west of the BR, but also push the cold air out faster. I may have to eat crow if the track of this low ends up as shown. Hope it's grilled and lightly sautéed.

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Arctic air masses tend to not cooperate...IE...shallow cold air can be tough to scour especially the Shenandoah Valley. However...in order to have a prolonged episode of frozen precip it's more favorable to have an in-situ CAD where the high is north and wedging the cad into our area which prolongs the episode. With this being a retreating high the WAA will win over. Timing can still be tricky well N and W with very shallow freezing temps.

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Can't find a lot to be optimistic about right now. The srefs continue to look wetter, especially west of the BR, but also push the cold air out faster. I may have to eat crow if the track of this low ends up as shown. Hope it's grilled and lightly sautéed.

I would go deep fried. You can eat anything when its coated in saturated fat ;)

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Can't find a lot to be optimistic about right now. The srefs continue to look wetter, especially west of the BR, but also push the cold air out faster. I may have to eat crow if the track of this low ends up as shown. Hope it's grilled and lightly sautéed.

 

The concerning thing to me is most of the models are pretty dry out here. We will get a thump of some snow. But it might end up looking like last nights half inch. 

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The concerning thing to me is most of the models are pretty dry out here. We will get a thump of some snow. But it might end up looking like last nights half inch. 

 

 

Will know soon enough.

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looks like the one consistent thing on the models for my area is that whatever falls before about 4pm monday is snow. i will just be sure to get my jebwalk in before 4pm and let mother nature take care of the snow removal.

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I believe this is as far east as the euro has shown for this system for the coc. That is huge! Why is everyone ignoring that?

 

I think it's because it looks like model convergence.  If all of the models shifted east, then it could signal the start of an east trend.  But the Euro, which was on the western edge of guidance, has shifted east while the GGEM, which was on the eastern edge of guidance, has shifted west.  I think most people expected something like that to happen.  The problem is that the models will probably converge to a solution that isn't great for many of us.

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Arctic air masses tend to not cooperate...IE...shallow cold air can be tough to scour especially the Shenandoah Valley. However...in order to have a prolonged episode of frozen precip it's more favorable to have an in-situ CAD where the high is north and wedging the cad into our area which prolongs the episode. With this being a retreating high the WAA will win over. Timing can still be tricky well N and W with very shallow freezing temps.

 

This is something I think bears watching. There is still snow cover on the ground in many areas. That's not going to melt before this event, at least appreciably. Even when the precip goes to liquid there's still going to be a very shallow layer at the surface which is frozen. Pavement temps in some areas are in the upper 20s as well. Could be a recipe for bad conditions.

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Arctic air masses tend to not cooperate...IE...shallow cold air can be tough to scour especially the Shenandoah Valley. However...in order to have a prolonged episode of frozen precip it's more favorable to have an in-situ CAD where the high is north and wedging the cad into our area which prolongs the episode. With this being a retreating high the WAA will win over. Timing can still be tricky well N and W with very shallow freezing temps.

Good explanation

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Winter Storm Watch, Wind Chill Advisory
Issued: 3:06 PM EST Feb. 13, 2016 – National Weather Service
 
 
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-

CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-FREDERICK VA-
CLARKE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD-
SPOTSYLVANIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-
EASTERN LOUDOUN-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-

306 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

 

... Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening
to 9 am EST Sunday...
... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Sunday night through
Tuesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from late Sunday
night through Tuesday morning.

* Winds... northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph through
this evening. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 mph tonight. Winds
Sunday night through Tuesday morning southeast around 5 to 10
mph.

* Temperatures... falling into the single digits tonight into
Sunday morning... in the teens Sunday night rising into the
upper 20s to lower 30s Monday into Tuesday.

* Wind chills... 10 to 20 degrees below zero.

* Precipitation type... snow... sleet and freezing rain.

* Accumulation... potential for around 5 inches of snow and sleet.
Potential for around a quarter inch of ice from freezing rain.

* Timing... lowest wind chills are expected late tonight through
early Sunday morning. Snow will begin late Sunday night. Snow
will continue through Monday before changing to sleet and
freezing rain Monday night. Precipitation will end Tuesday
afternoon.

* Impacts... the dangerously low wind chills will lead to frost
bite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Snow and ice
will cause slippery roads and travel will be difficult.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds
will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in
frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

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Winter storm watches posted n/w of the cities and down in virginia. Up to 5 inches w ice. Bold.

 

Seems pretty bullish. Wouldn't be surprised to see less than half of that actually verify.

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Winter storm watches posted n/w of the cities and down in virginia. Up to 5 inches w ice. Bold.

 

The same areas that produced the last time watches were...oh...

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A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

 

What? That in the hazardous weather outlook. I guess anywhere north of EZF isn't in the I-95 corridor northern virginia lol. 

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Winter Storm Watch, Wind Chill Advisory
Issued: 3:06 PM EST Feb. 13, 2016 – National Weather Service
 
 
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-

CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-FREDERICK VA-

CLARKE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD-

SPOTSYLVANIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-

EASTERN LOUDOUN-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-

306 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

 

... Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening

to 9 am EST Sunday...

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Sunday night through

Tuesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has

issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from late Sunday

night through Tuesday morning.

* Winds... northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph through

this evening. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 mph tonight. Winds

Sunday night through Tuesday morning southeast around 5 to 10

mph.

* Temperatures... falling into the single digits tonight into

Sunday morning... in the teens Sunday night rising into the

upper 20s to lower 30s Monday into Tuesday.

* Wind chills... 10 to 20 degrees below zero.

* Precipitation type... snow... sleet and freezing rain.

* Accumulation... potential for around 5 inches of snow and sleet.

Potential for around a quarter inch of ice from freezing rain.

* Timing... lowest wind chills are expected late tonight through

early Sunday morning. Snow will begin late Sunday night. Snow

will continue through Monday before changing to sleet and

freezing rain Monday night. Precipitation will end Tuesday

afternoon.

* Impacts... the dangerously low wind chills will lead to frost

bite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Snow and ice

will cause slippery roads and travel will be difficult.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds

will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in

frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat and

gloves.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant

snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

Wow!

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I think psuhoffman warned us of this, where the WAA snows could go to the south of us. He mentioned it had happened last year as well. I think thats what the models may be indicating. The newest NAM has a stretch of 6-10" east to west from CHO to just south of EZF. Looks like we get 3-6" too.

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