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Presidents Day storm Part 2


Ji

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Rgem went the other direction. General 1-3" before the flip at 21z. 95 and east above freezing by 0z and climbing quick after that. Not a great evolution either with a lull in the morning hours.

that model sucks...unless it shows up snow

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Zoomed panels up for para euro. Pretty uniform precip distribution. 3" line is east of 95 and everybody west of there for the most part gets at least 3". 4" area kisses dc and runs down 95 to the south. Other 4" pocket is fdk county md.

 

Zoomed panels up for para euro. Pretty uniform precip distribution. 3" line is east of 95 and everybody west of there for the most part gets at least 3". 4" area kisses dc and runs down 95 to the south. Other 4" pocket is fdk county md.

4 inches would of been our best storm in several winters we have had around here so i will glady take it

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Rgem went the other direction. General 1-3" before the flip at 21z. 95 and east above freezing by 0z and climbing quick after that. Not a great evolution either with a lull in the morning hours.

 

Never a dull moment, it seems.  Don't like seeing what's considered one of the good meso models doing that, but we'll see.  Again, small oscillations one way or another seem to make big differences (like last week's snow).  I guess we await the GFS now...

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Rgem went the other direction. General 1-3" before the flip at 21z. 95 and east above freezing by 0z and climbing quick after that. Not a great evolution either with a lull in the morning hours.

Was just glancing at that. Doesn't look like much of an ice threat either. Basically snow and then rain as both the surface and 850 flip at roughly the same time.

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not sure if anyone posted earlier about the fire wx nest being placed over our area, so apologies if this has been discussed, but the character of the simulated reflectivity is quite interesting.   The precip takes on a "showery" character by early afternoon - earlier than I was expecting to see.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

I jumped on the 5" swath earlier this afternoon. :)

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Just wanted to say I think the vast, vast majority of posters here have nothing but the highest respect for you, Wes. I also think there is also a small army of folks such as myself who rarely post because we feel we don't have the in-depth knowledge to add to the discussion, but we search for your posts because we learn every time you weigh in. For us, you are invaluable. I know that the negative comments may sting, but please don't let them drive you away from sharing your knowledge and experience. Thanks!

 

Agree.  100%

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I don't think you ever answered when you were asked who said it wasn't going to snow three days ago? At least you eventually moved to the right sfc track with the main system. Try to re-write history as much as you want.. the proof is here that you just make stuff up.

No we had the grand handwringing about the 970 in Ohio vslley moving due north but that was three days ago and you sort of hide under the unretrievablility and have a hissy

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Modeling is sick these days. I'm not sure everyone realizes how good it is. The Euro is close to making a lot of people  unemployed.

The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v525/n7567/full/nature14956.html

 

We are still gaining about one extra day every decade in terms of deterministic NWP skill at medium range.

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  • i

     

    high risk, on 14 Feb 2016 - 4:14 PM, said:

    not sure if anyone posted earlier about the fire wx nest being placed over our area, so apologies if this has been discussed, but the character of the simulated reflectivity is quite interesting.   The precip takes on a "showery" character by early afternoon - earlier than I was expecting to see.

     

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

     

    interesting.. follow along on that 2m temperature.  Nam has the whole metro right around freezing at 06z early Tues morning.
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