Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Presidents Day storm Part 2


Ji

Recommended Posts

Ice is definitely possible. Most guidance other than the Euro keeps max temps for the event in the mid 30's and give northern md southern pa a 6 hr or longer period of zr. Probably not much of a concern for the metros but for us it could be a much different story. 

I think there is a very distinct possibility of a somewhat significant icing event for the farther western and northern areas. Think the surface winds will play a major part. Do we see a more easterly component to the direction of the wind where it is pushing the colder temps into the mountains vs a southerly wind that has free rein to scour out the surface? Another factor that needs to be considered besides the surface is the direction of the winds in the lower levels up to 925mb. If we have a fairly deep layer of 50+ degrees coming on southerly winds then you have the rain warming as it falls through and that can scour out the colder surface temps fairly quickly as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 959
  • Created
  • Last Reply

NAM has light snow starting late Sunday night, throughout the day on Monday accumulating 4-8" before turning to what looks like ZR Monday night with temperatures at or just below freezing. then we dryslot. Then it has heavy rain at 32 degrees. People were saying that it was back-end snow but it looks like really cold rain, as the upper levels warm above freezing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM has light snow starting late Sunday night, throughout the day on Monday accumulating 4-8" before turning to what looks like ZR Monday night with temperatures at or just below freezing. then we dryslot. Then it has heavy rain at 32 degrees. People were saying that it was back-end snow but it looks like really cold rain, as the upper levels warm above freezing.

Interesting. My criteria for a successful event would be a WSW and this would probably do the trick.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place.

 

 

at the time I lived in West Chester in pa, one of the worst ice storms ive ever experienced. got about .75" of ice. just nasty didn't have power for a week. although I don't know if we will ever get an ice storm like we had in the mid 90s, that was something else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

so is there a real shot at some heavy snow on the backside as the 850s crash? I know the surface is a hot mess by that point, but does the idea that it could it still switch back to heavy snow have merit?

 

 

Actually the NAM is the exact opposite. The surface is right around freezing but the 850s are still above. Thats why we have 32 degree heavy rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place.

Yeah, that one brought down a couple of big trees here. Had to spend about a hour with the chain saw to get my neighbor out of her long driveway. About a 60 ft cherry landed right across it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually the NAM is the exact opposite. The surface is right around freezing but the 850s are still above. Thats why we have 32 degree heavy rain.

 

im not sure thats true, this clearly shows the 850s are very cold  and we are under the 534dm line, surface freezing line is well into PA however. i know im not looking at sounding so i cant see all levels, but from this map i would have thought that would be a transition back to some snow as it pulls away

 

NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f75.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, that one brought down a couple of big trees here. Had to spend about a hour with the chain saw to get my neighbor out of her long driveway. About a 60 ft cherry landed right across it.

Yeah. That storm was ugly in the northern tier and into Southern PA to out your way along the 81 corridor. HGR got a bunch of ZR from that too. These CAD wedges are hard to predict, but the shorter range models all seem to be leaning toward a favorable wedge for the usual spots.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

im not sure thats true, this clearly shows the 850s are very cold  and we are under the 534dm line, surface freezing line is well into PA however. i know im not looking at sounding so i cant see all levels, but from this map i would have thought that would be a transition back to some snow as it pulls away

 

NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f75.png

 

 

hmmm weatherbell has the exact opposite. 2M temps are right at 32 while 850 temps are above freezing. Are you sure the light blue line isn't surface temps?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...