AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Something between a 975mb over Cleveland and a 1010mb over NYC. But only one model is showing a lot of frozen on this one. Everything else is a little frozen followed by 45f and heavy rain followed by 50f and windy. Unlikely this will end with snowcover anywhere. Why you gonna just ignore the CRAS and DGEX like that? So disrespectful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 euro - meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro is a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro is a rock. Yep. Been about as worthless as a rock the past couple years. It has been dethroned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yep. Been about as worthless as a rock the past couple years. It has been dethroned. Indeed, weenie. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I wonder if we can convince ECMWF to run the old version once the new one is live. We could have two really excellent models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro looks better for Westminster/Frederick with the front end stuff than 12z but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The Euro is faster with the low center when comparing to 12z and is weaker by 4-5 mb this run and takes the same track. Using the Regional comparison on WxBell, you can see the reasoning for the torch is mostly due to track. I don;t care what kind of CAD signature you had, if you get a low that runs eastern Tenn, to Elkins to just east of Altoona, you're going to torch quickly and it will dump with warm conveyor going right overhead. Definitely causes some pause since it has been so steady. It has been the king for a reason, so it could very well be right. We'll see over the weekend who caves to who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 lol alright. Toss the euro at your own peril. Verbatim it looked to be a touch better on the front end--like 1" to 2" stuff, but that's pretty much noise. Look at the torching of the surface in 6 hours. Ouch. Flip b/w 21 and 0z perhaps on early side.. 2" at most prob in the city. .1" prior to period, .2" after. Guess maybe ratios but I think a lot of the daytime stuff might be off and on, very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Anyone that tosses any model guidance, including the NAM or GGEM, is doing a disservice to themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The Euro is faster with the low center when comparing to 12z and is weaker by 4-5 mb this run and takes the same track. Using the Regional comparison on WxBell, you can see the reasoning for the torch is mostly due to track. I don;t care what kind of CAD signature you had, if you get a low that runs eastern Tenn, to Elkins to just east of Altoona, you're going to torch quickly and it will dump with warm conveyor going right overhead. Definitely causes some pause since it has been so steady. It has been the king for a reason, so it could very well be right. We'll see over the weekend who caves to who. This run might be the furthest west track around here of all of them even though it's weaker. I can't recall exactly though it's west of 12z and that seemed to be the general track prior. Euro does have a tendency to over deepen lows even outside its sometimes tendency to be overamped especially at range. Very steady give or take either way. If you're going to get a deep inside runner this is the kind of pattern to do it in imo. I'd still wonder if we really get it that far in though. I'd think Blue Ridge to 95 is still favored. Still similar end result, main wintry threat west of Blue Ridge and perhaps well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This run might be the furthest west track around here of all of them even though it's weaker. I can't recall exactly though it's west of 12z and that seemed to be the general track prior. Euro does have a tendency to over deepen lows even outside its sometimes tendency to be overamped especially at range. Very steady give or take either way. If you're going to get a deep inside runner this is the kind of pattern to do it in imo. I'd still wonder if we really get it that far in though. I'd think Blue Ridge to 95 is still favored. Still similar end result, main wintry threat west of Blue Ridge and perhaps well west. I agree to all points. I think the Euro bias may be a play here with the western extension of the low track, but I don't think it's off its rocker by any means. You can see the envelope closing in with the goal posts from the BR to over the Delmarva. Due to the thermal boundary left over by the upcoming cold spell, I'd still favor a track closer to I95 with maybe a touch west based on the positioning of the high off the coast. The one take away from this is the Euro catching up on the speed of the system. It's markedly faster this run than any of its previous runs, and that in turn makes it weaker as well. Either way you slice it, everyone east of the BR will see rain and there really is no getting around it. Areas west of BR will be more prone to staying frozen longer, but the storm will probably end as some rain along the 81 corridor with the Apps staying all frozen and getting pretty good snows out of the this. I'm not one to go verbatim for temps at the surface on globals, but I look for CAD signatures and the depth of the cold air in the layers up to 850mb. GFS, NAM, and Canadian are all deeper with the CAD wedge longer thanks to a more favorable track. Canadian is way too far east IMO and will adjust back probably tomorrow as its bias is usually too weak or too cold. GFS is a decent compromise as the track is closer to the thermal boundary and the low is not ridiculously weak as the Canadian. I like 1-3" for DC in this event with a little more snow the further north and west you go. I think general expectation should be 2-4" north of DC and south of I70 over to Baltimore and 3-6" north of that line with the higher amounts to the northern tier. West of BR due to the wedge effect of the BR and the Allegheny front could dam in cold longer, so icing would be a concern for a period overnight Monday into Tuesday morning before working into the mid 30's at the storms end. Apps and jojjon country would score well if storm moves over DC with 8-12" of snow between 1-2k feet and 12-20+" between 2.5-4k feet. Elevation will play a role on so many fronts with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I agree to all points. I think the Euro bias may be a play here with the western extension of the low track, but I don't think it's off its rocker by any means. You can see the envelope closing in with the goal posts from the BR to over the Delmarva. Due to the thermal boundary left over by the upcoming cold spell, I'd still favor a track closer to I95 with maybe a touch west based on the positioning of the high off the coast. The one take away from this is the Euro catching up on the speed of the system. It's markedly faster this run than any of its previous runs, and that in turn makes it weaker as well. Either way you slice it, everyone east of the BR will see rain and there really is no getting around it. Areas west of BR will be more prone to staying frozen longer, but the storm will probably end as some rain along the 81 corridor with the Apps staying all frozen and getting pretty good snows out of the this. I'm not one to go verbatim for temps at the surface on globals, but I look for CAD signatures and the depth of the cold air in the layers up to 850mb. GFS, NAM, and Canadian are all deeper with the CAD wedge longer thanks to a more favorable track. Canadian is way too far east IMO and will adjust back probably tomorrow as its bias is usually too weak or too cold. GFS is a decent compromise as the track is closer to the thermal boundary and the low is not ridiculously weak as the Canadian. I like 1-3" for DC in this event with a little more snow the further north and west you go. I think general expectation should be 2-4" north of DC and south of I70 over to Baltimore and 3-6" north of that line with the higher amounts to the northern tier. West of BR due to the wedge effect of the BR and the Allegheny front could dam in cold longer, so icing would be a concern for a period overnight Monday into Tuesday morning before working into the mid 30's at the storms end. Apps and jojjon country would score well if storm moves over DC with 8-12" of snow between 1-2k feet and 12-20+" between 2.5-4k feet. Elevation will play a role on so many fronts with this one. I'm thinking something similar. I am not sold on a temp spike to 50 but also realize that can and does happen easier then most think. Once the cold is pushed out it can happen fast. One way for this to over perform on the front end would be for to get in here early when we are still very cold both at the surface and upstairs. Even though models aren't showing heavy QPF with the initial snows there is the possibility to get into some heavy bands as the moisture runs into the arctic air that remains in place. I think the Euro maybe too slow getting the better precip to us. Many Euro runs leading up to the blizzard had the snow starting much later than it actually did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Given the season we've had, I don't care if it stays or is burned off the soil, as long as I get a couple hours of SN that accumulates 2-4 I will be happy. Agreed. A 4 inch snow is climo, and I'd have 32 inches on the season FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Again, go west, young men. The latest from LWX: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST SUN NIGHT WILL BE RETREATING QUICKLY AS MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW BEGINS LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MON MORNING DUE TO OVERRUNNING BUT WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO FZRA/PL AND RAIN. GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND QUICKER TO BRING PRECIP THAN 24 HRS AGO AS MOST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW SHOW SFC LOW PRES TRACKING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. POTENTIAL FOR SIX INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LESS IN FAR SOUTHERN MD. A BAND OF FZRA WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR. PRECIP SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z TUE IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS HIGHER ELEVS. THIS TRANSITION IS ALSO FASTER THAN 24 HRS AGO. FLOODING IS NOW A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN AS SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINS ALL BECOME RUNOFF DUE TO FROZEN AND SNOW COVERED GROUND. WPC NOW HAS MOST OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS DAY 3 VALID 12Z MON - 12Z TUE. ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS ICE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT MOST RIVERS. MOST OF THE PRECIP CLEARS THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT BUT UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Interesting solution on the 12K 06Z NAM. Basically washes out the low from the south as it moves north. What we are left with is not so much a distinct low but a broad area of lower pressures as it moves through our region. It cuts qpf totals from 1/3 to 1/2 from 95 west and yet looks to be marginally better in snowfall for the 95 corridor because of the better temps. It also shows a fairly significant frz rain/sleet event of .25+ inches for roughly west of the bay where surface temps never top 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 00Z Euro ensembles means have taken a step back on snowfall totals for the 95 corridor and looking at individual members doesn't look as promising as the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 06z GFS is a pretty serious ice storm west of 95. 81 corridor stays nearly all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 06z GFS is a pretty serious ice storm west of 95. 81 corridor stays nearly all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like 6z gfs actually improved for winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro is a rock.so has the cmc been lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 06z GFS is a pretty serious ice storm west of 95. 81 corridor stays nearly all frozen. Don't think it would be much of a concern for the 95 corridor as shown on the GFS. AS we lose the 850's temps we are also losing the 925 mb temps. With surface temps as marginal as they are (32-33) you really need the 925's to be somewhat below freezing to cool the rain as it nears the surface not 3-4 degrees above. Now maybe the far north and west suburbs might get a little something more noteworthy initially but even they would have issues fairly quickly. Fredrick on west would be a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here's some bufkit data for 2 sites with potential problems for icing. The first one is HGR going into the overnight Monday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This one is IAD at the same time frame. You can see how close that is to something bad even out in that portion of VA and the further west you go, the more treacherous it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 6z GFS is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Shame. Could have been an awesome event for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Shame. Could have been an awesome event for everyone. I guess its a shame, but I really don't think this had much of a shot at becoming an awesome event for everyone. Its been clear for a while this is a pretty bad setup, despite what any one model cycle has shown. The CMC is a crap model, but hey its great to hug right now for the blind weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 6z GFS is a disaster. lol. Its almost exactly like 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I guess its a shame, but I really don't think this had much of a shot at becoming an awesome event for everyone. Its been clear for a while this is a pretty bad setup, despite what any one model cycle has shown. The CMC is a crap model, but hey its great to hug right now for the blind weenie. CMC is definitely too far east with the system IMO. It'll eventually correct westward. I'm not a huge fan of that model. It's just eye candy to me, but I take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like 6z gfs actually improved for winter weather 6z GFS is a disaster. ?????????? This doesn't help anyone trying to get a quick rundown by reading the thread. But I knew nothing good happened overnight when I saw only 1 new page added. When I get up and there are 10 new pages I know it will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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