Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It has been brought to Ian's attention that if you don't hug the cmc you are anti winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I count three "events" in a row where we embarrassed ourselves as a snowtown. We're on a Nats like skid. That, and people praying for the Canadian to be right tells me it's not looking good for Monday.. I tried to suggest to you in the last storm that busting off of verbatim-model-outputs is something that DC does well, especially in any situation where temps are marginal. I'm glad to see you've come around to the healthy skepticism of DC snow based on your signature line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I count three "events" in a row where we embarrassed ourselves as a snowtown. We're on a Nats like skid. That, and people praying for the Canadian to be right tells me it's not looking good for Monday.. Strong Nino man.. you need all the things to be right more than normal. Then again these are never easy. Although it sure does look like it's going to snow Monday before the changeover so we'll see if we can get a little half lovin out of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is a really crude rule-of-thumb I have been using just based on observing these little events over the years: At least one model that's not a short term one--- NAM, GFS, Euro, RGEM-- has to spit out a 0.1" QPF contour somewhere nearby for me to be optimistic of seeing beyond a trace. There was this tiny bullseye of 0.1" QPF over the DC metro region on the NAM the day of the pre-blizzard inch which made the possibility of an actual accumulation legit in my mind. Over the years, we've had many clipper situations where either the GFS or NAM blinked in the last moment, but as long one of the two still painted 0.1"+ QPF over the area, there ended up being multiple 1" snow totals. Not sure if they were painting .1" qpf but it was pretty close late yesterday. That said, the 12K nam didn't have much for this evening at 0z last night and the 4k NAM didn't have a ton. NAM 24 out is usually pretty solid with convective type stuff and timing etc. So, perhaps that 0z signal should have been better analyzed. 4k did very well with timing.. almost exact really. It also showed the activity decaying moving in. If the pre-blizzard event hadn't just happened there probably would have been less notice given, I'll concur with that idea. But I just don't think rush hour was ever all that targeted anyway not to mention a Friday rush hour in DC is usually not as massive since a lot of feds telework on Fridays even if not the rest of the week plus the flow begins earlier etc. Those surprise events are probably going to happen in big cities off and on for the foreseeable future. There's just no way to capture them all perfectly. On Monday we weren't all that far off from having a sustained ground-whitening snow burst move through at rush hour almost entirely unpredicted. It rolled just south and had some solid echoes all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It has been brought to Ian's attention that if you don't hug the cmc you are anti winter Seriously man. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Expected bust here. I probably saw close to 10 snowflakes. I think they split over me. Monday will score a coop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Dale City is getting moderate snow at 20 degrees. Looks like half an inch already! What an incredible surprise! Dendrites are increasing in size. Winds are picking up some. At least 30 dbZ returns directly overhead. Visibilities are dropping. I realize that this is NOT a cold smoking, but it looks like a cold smoke event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winds are starting to make noise outside, snow is blowing off the roofs and it reminds me of GB 16, lol. Looks like three quarters of an inch of snow, but winds are blowing this fluffy snow all over the place. I'll do my best not to slant this ruler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The area of snow is moving southeast. Snow is getting lighter. Winds are increasing from the NNW. It's a Currier and Ives scene outside, everything is covered with a half inch to three quarters of an inch of snow, and it is blowing around. Snow is blowing off houses at times. The best snow events are the surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 A strong gust just woke me up about 25 minutes ago. Blew over the trash cans. I look outside and it is snowing at a good clip. Roads are white now. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nice white surprise to wake up to..1/2" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nice thin band on radar. Moving s.e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nice thin band on radar. Moving s.e.Looks like lake effect. I just posted about that in the obs thread. Interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Heads up DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NW DC looks like its getting hit pretty good with that thin streamer band. Any reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Moderate snow here in Gaithersburg/N Potomac right in the path of the streamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can't see across the street here on Capitol Hill right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Beautiful outside with the sun rising and snow falling. Can see blue sky that is only a few miles away yet it is snowing hard. Very pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 WOW http://www.camvista.com/watch-live-video/america/usa/washington_dc_capitol_hill_live_streaming_video_webcam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nice coating overnight. 0.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Didn't even get 0.1". Only indication of snow from last night is the occasional white between the cracks of the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 .... And now just a flurry or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 A tour of the DC traffic cameras illustrates the variable conditions only a few miles apart. Some areas getting hit pretty good. Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Heavy snow....roads caving LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Before the snow got heavy it was stunningly beautiful, I wish I was a photographer, bright blue skies with the sun illuminating the flakes so they were glowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Before the snow got heavy it was stunningly beautiful, I wish I was a photographer, bright blue skies with the sun illuminating the flakes so they were glowing. Ahhhh... Who needs a photograph when you write in pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I've got a flight out of DCA in a few hours, so that line can just stay on its current trajectory, please. Don't trust them folks to not have operations get all messed up just from a squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Damn. That band is awesome. Parts of the 270 corridor into DC is getting rocked. I'm inspired. I just woke up my girlfriend and we're packing up for a drive out to WV for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Snowing now, solid dusting. This reminds me a lot of the morning of 2/14 last year (especially with the wind chill advisories and wind advisories) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajb Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Legitimate heavy snow in Dupont. Can't see the church a quarter mile away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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