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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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You guys actually want that big band to lighten up some. If those current rates come over as freezing rain it will quickly rise the temp to 32 or higher. Best freezing rain is lighter banded type precip; like what the Triad is currently getting.

Yeah I suspect temps will rise some, especially over north ga since temps aloft closer to the surface are warmer. Hell the warm nose is so warm and thick the actual temp of the rain drops will be warmer than normal...so i don't suspect there will be much freezing where and when temps are 30.5 or higher. Over the upstate, it's a bit colder from the surface to 925mb so i expect more freezing there

Hi-res models have shown strengthening Northeasterly winds in the upstate just ahead of the front. That's why we are holding on to the wedge longer than anyone. Here's winds at 10pm tonight, 10 to 12 knots.

For a few runs now the models had been showing a 12 to 14mb difference between the low center and pressures in north carolina by late this afternoon to 0z before decreasing..and they were right. That is pretty good for a cad event.

 

When you have this kind of bone dry arctic air in place, the models ALWAYS miss it, by a lot. It just got above 32 all the way over here in SE Wake Co. And much of the area really never achieved maximum wetbulbing. If we would have had area-wide steady moderate to heavy precip, we'd probably be even colder now.

I have to say i'm a bit surprised at the staying power of the wedge due to the fact it's been BONE dry all day in north ga and much of the upstate. There has not been so much as a drop of drizzle here.  i would have expected temps to rise without it area wide. but it only did on the edges thanks in part to the freaking sun coming out for quite a while

 

Speaking of missing it by quite a bit (and  missed opportunities)  Around 5 to 6am this morning, the gfs was as much as 15 degrees too warm with dewpoints and the nam about 10 degrees here before they slowly rose.

 

This has been a fun wedge to follow..(even though i missed a lot  last night and today)..very complex with it's own uniqueness. As always each is a learning experience.

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Holy carp! WYFF break in just said significant ice incoming as they feared. Wedge not moving as of now.Still 27.7* F here. 

Edit: They said significant, but I still don't believe that is the right word, but we are about to get a glaze down here. 

 

Edit again: It's neat to see this play out. Hope everyone in NC/SC CAD area is comfy and safe. Don't drive!

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This CAD wedge is amazing. I'm still hanging on even here as far east as I am at freezing. And I'm right on the transition between the piedmont and coastal plain,

 

Hope for the best for you folks in the heart of the wedge out west.

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KGSP Update

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...IT IS OBVIOUS THAT COLD AIR WILL HANG ON LONGER THAN 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF 
NC. PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA HAVE COME DOWN ENOUGH 
THAT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ICE ACCRETION WILL REACH ONE-QUARTER 
INCH...SO THE ADVISORY WILL NOT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. 
HOWEVER...TEMPS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES... 
ESPECIALLY THE BRIDGES...WILL BE SLIPPERY IN SPOTS. EXPECT A 
CONTINUED IMPACT IN THE AREAS WHERE THE ADVISORIES WERE SET TO 
EXPIRE AT 7 PM...SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT. HOPEFULLY...WE CAN LOP OFF ZONES THROUGH MID-EVENING AS 
TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32F. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
HIGH ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL 
EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS 
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW 
ADVISORY LEVEL AS WELL.

PRECIP SHUD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS 
EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET FUELED DIVERGENCE MOVE 
OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL. 
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES INTENSIFY...WARMING KICKS IN AS WELL. THE 
WARMING SHUD KEEP MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING FROM SEEING MORE 
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION...BUT THE NW PIEDMONT AND 
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS COULD APPROACH 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH. AREAS ALONG 
AND NEAR THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING A 
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE...SO THE WARNING REMAINS WELL PLACED.

A DRY SLOT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET. 
THIS WILL BRING A QUICK END TO PRECIP FROM SW TO NE OUTSIDE OF THE 
MOUNTAINS BY TUE MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP THRU 
THE MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH 
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
ACCUMULATIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND 
PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY 
WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN... 
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH ONLY VERY 
LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE DAY.

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Yes but not before we get a bit more of an ice glaze. Btw I prefer trout. With lemon pepper. 

Actually if that preip over N GA holds together heads towards the upstate SC,NC . There wont be much of a glaze if at all. Too much waa involve in the elevated convection. Rates will not help.

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Holy carp! WYFF break in just said significant ice incoming as they feared. Wedge not moving as of now.Still 27.7* F here. 

Edit: They said significant, but I still don't believe that is the right word, but we are about to get a glaze down here. 

 

Edit again: It's neat to see this play out. Hope everyone in NC/SC CAD area is comfy and safe. Don't drive!

I-385 at Pleasantburg has been closed due to ice. And is a fatality accident on Villa at that same location. Getting too dangerous to drive around.

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I-385 at Pleasantburg has been closed due to ice. And is a fatality accident on Villa at that same location. Getting too dangerous to drive around.

Yep. Went out to get dinner an hour ago and almost got t-boned by a jackhole that was driving to fast and slid when he braked.

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surprised Lookout has not weighed in.  Thought he'd be all over this.

missed this post.. Yeah been preoccupied and busy with other stuff since last night. Sure didn't miss much around here today..not so much as a drop of drizzle.

 

Do we think this wedge will move its way even more west and bring ATL below freezing? Or will it retreat and we'll warm back up again?

No..atlanta has no shot at freezing. If a location isn't at freezing now they won't get there and that will be As usual from the northeast burbs northeastward.  Although it should be noted that there shouldn't be much freezing even where it's 32/31 because of rain rates and warm air aloft.

 

That's irrelevant to me though because just the fact the wedge has expanded, not contracted, counter to every available guidance save I think the last run or two of the 4km nam is cool.Some stations around atlanta showing a 7 to 9 degree temp drop from the low to mid 40s to mid 30s. Gfs says wtf?! lol..what a bust there by it. Currently where it's 31 to 33..it had temps in the low 50s by now. Maybe they downgraded it to the avn?

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missed this post.. Yeah been preoccupied and busy with other stuff since last night. Sure didn't miss much around here today..not so much as a drop of drizzle.

 

No..atlanta has no shot at freezing. If a location isn't at freezing now they won't get there and that will be As usual from the northeast burbs northeastward.  Although it should be noted that there shouldn't be much freezing even where it's 32/31 because of rain rates and warm air aloft.

 

That's irrelevant to me though because just the fact the wedge has expanded, not contracted, counter to every available guidance save I think the last run or two of the 4km nam is cool.Some stations around atlanta showing a 7 to 9 degree temp drop from the low to mid 40s to mid 30s. Gfs says wtf?! lol..what a bust there by it. Currently where it's 31 to 33..it had temps in the low 50s by now. Maybe they downgraded it to the avn?

 

Lookout the 4K nailed this on its 12z run as I posted earlier. Also at least for my area despite the heavy returns over me it's a light to moderate at best rain. It's just an average sounding shower outside. While I imagine that WAA will overcome and the rain will become harder, as of now it's a nice shower. (Zr) in dawsonville. Temp is steady at 31.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Rds are skating rink around the upstate! Wrecks everywhere, and rds arecshut down! This is becoming a major issue, they can't even keep up with the wrecks! 29° here with light to moderate ZR. The worst is just now getting to upstate

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IMO, the model that is doing the best right now when it comes to the temps is the French one. The NAM and RGEM did good too. The Euro and GFS should be thrown into the garbage can. HUGE fail with those two.

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Wyff weather boys geeking out on TV. Impressive to see the cad expand the last 2 hours.

Chris Justus might lay an egg or something If he's not careful. :lol:

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Chris Justus might lay an egg or something If he's not careful. :lol:

 

Glad I can pick up Spartanburg locals with my antenna :)

 

Latest HRRR is holding on to frozen precip longer yet again :whistle:

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WYFF news coverage is really good and showing how the wedge is expanding and in Cessarich's opinion, will continue

to expand as the temperatures in Ga have continued to drop as the wedge has continued to drop south. Amazing..

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IMBY --- my biggest surprise here is the lack of precipitation. Now that things warmed up enough to melt, we had a trace overnignt, and just .03" so far today. Certainly thought we'd have gotten more than that from the 'first round' of this system.

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WYFF news coverage is really good and showing how the wedge is expanding and in Cessarich's opinion, will continue

to expand as the temperatures in Ga have continued to drop as the wedge has continued to drop south. Amazing..

Yeah, they are geeking out hard and very informative! They seem really concerned

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When are all the negative nancies that wrote this storm off for the upstate gonna come eat their crow? It looks like there has been close to 200 accidents in the upstate in the last few hours!

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