Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.


lilj4425

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Timing alone will make the schools pull the plug. All we need is a "threat"...the dusting in the AM will scare them enough, most work offices will close as well is my guess.

I mostly have to agree. Wcpss has pushed heir limits quite a bit over the years and made some bad calls. They will already be feeling the pressure because Monday was to be a make-up day already. They didn't cancel Friday over "dusting", but this is different in that there's more widespread ice expected---timing wise. My husband works at NCSU and they seems to think everyone lives on campus.

Anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hard for me to see the maps(on a crappy Netbook). But it did look a little colder on the 12z NAM. As other have said the precip did move north some, but RDU westward still looks to get .25 or greater qpf with temps at or below freezing.

 

Thats about right, .10 as snow the test ip/zr so call it 1" snow .10" IP/ZR at best.

 

this is the story of my winter right here this is the latest NAM Cobb for PGV 

 

160215/1300Z 31 05007KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.03|| 0.05 0| 0|100

160215/1400Z 32 04006KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.04|| 0.06 0| 0|100

160215/1500Z 33 36004KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.07 0| 0|100

160215/1600Z 34 34005KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.08 0| 0|100

160215/1700Z 35 34005KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.09 0| 0|100

160215/1800Z 36 35005KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.10 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160215/1900Z 37 30003KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.16 0| 0|100

160215/2000Z 38 30005KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.25 0| 0|100

160215/2100Z 39 01003KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.31 0| 0|100

160215/2200Z 40 05004KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.32 0| 0|100

160215/2300Z 41 VRB02KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.136 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.46 0| 0|100

160216/0000Z 42 09004KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.49 0| 0|100

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This was the 6z NAM sounding for RDU ---- That is some bone dry air. 

 

Yep and when you're seeing 0.02-0.04" hourly QPF all snow with rates 4-6:1, hard to think we'll see more than 0.5" at RDU. Unless you don't believe modeling and think the CAD will hold when more precip arrives, 1"+ seems out of reach especially with IP cutting in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My call for mby is, 1/10 inch of ice accrual on trees and roads possibly, with freezing drizzle until noon or so, then all rain! Next! All in for Feb 24th!

Radar showing another storm for the 24th?

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not only is it time for I-85 folks to consider that when the main body of precip moves through it will be all rain, but also that the so-called front end thump may be just a whimper. 12z NAM drops a paltry .03 of frozen precip on Shelby EHO before 2ms go above freezing.

I'll be looking for the whites of their eyes. :)

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not only is it time for I-85 folks to consider that when the main body of precip moves through it will be all rain, but also that the so-called front end thump may be just a whimper. 12z NAM drops a paltry .03 of frozen precip on Shelby EHO before 2ms go above freezing.

We get it! For 2-3 days, we knew we would need heavier precip to lock in the in -situ damming, and hold temps down ! No heavy precip , means no frozen!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAH at 9:55AM

THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING STORM STILL LOOKS ONTRACK... AND WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR AS SOON AS LATEAFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING... THESE HYDROMETEORS WILL INITIALLY BEFIGHTING DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND THUS THE FORECASTED ONSET OFMEASURABLE PRECIP STILL LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING WINTERWEATHER ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON... AND PERHAPS A WINTER STORMWARNING IN THE FAR NW... AFTER A THOROUGH ASSESSMENT OF MORNINGMODEL RUNS. -GIH
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So the Euro has regained its crown- when it became consistent on the warmer farther north solution it was hard to beat. Also, if the short wave is strong enough, and the surface HP is off the coast and retreating, than yes, LP *can* move right into the cold air.

The temps were way off. Waaaaaay off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The temps were way off. Waaaaaay off.

 

I realize that. But people here were hugging the other models as far as the position of the surface low. The Euro at this range has difficulty with things like temps, especially in a CAD setup, but is still better (when consistent) with the synoptic features.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I realize that. But people here were hugging the other models as far as the position of the surface low. The Euro at this range has difficulty with things like temps, especially in a CAD setup, but is still better (when consistent) with the synoptic features.

 

Yep,

 

Euro ultimately won out on the 5h trough and surface low placement, big surprise. lol

 

I actually looked at a 120 hr prog from 4 days ago and it's about identical at 5h to what it is showing now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...