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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.


lilj4425

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Seems to me we now get to see just how fast that CAD wedge can break down in this situation to avoid major ice storm power outages.

 

Experience tells me that it will take longer than the models indicate. Just hope its soon enough and the bulk of moisture stays away till then, otherwise its "boom boom, out go the lights."  :yikes:

 

Maybe someone can temper that concern? Please. 

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It might be a light glaze or a little more, but the roads must be bad... saw this on a local forum just now...

 

"It was very, very bad out there this morning. Saw at least 100 cars from US70 to RTP off the road. Worst were the US70/I40 area and the US1/I40 areas."

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Main returns are about two hours away from getting to me NE of you in NC. 

Let us know if anything makes it down. 

Things are starting to moisten up here in my part of upstate temp starting dropping again so I'm not at 26/21 with RH 81% got a NE wind of around 5-10mph. Just waiting on something to reach the surface, but not gonna be long I don't think.

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It might be a light glaze or a little more, but the roads must be bad... saw this on a local forum just now...

"It was very, very bad out there this morning. Saw at least 100 cars from US70 to RTP off the road. Worst were the US70/I40 area and the US1/I40 areas."

thanks for the update. We will be trying this around 6-7 this eve...
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frustrating storm for me haven't seen a flake of snow or for that matter any type of precip yet when some folks all around us were getting all day yesterday.  we have done ok before with storms coming from the west not as good as the southwest but this precip just kept going around us, if everyone else the column became saturated surprised we didn't either. boy 1-3 inches has turned into nary a flake or sleet pellet.  :axe::cry:

 

I agree... I know it's just weather but it really is extremely frustrating to see the snow arc around Asheville all day yesterday.  What a complete waste of some of the coldest/driest air of the season. I know at this point that by the time the precip. actually reaches our area, we will have just warmed up enough for it to be all rain. What a pathetic disappointment! :facepalm:

 

Edit: It actually looks like the precip. just to the west of our area is going to slide adjacent to us all day and not even reach our area!

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12Z NAM just got real interesting for the upstate (KGSP in particular).....as of 7Z Tuesday morning, temps holding at 32 and total QPF is pushing 1 inch.........not over yet.

well according to Pivotal Weather it only drops 0.14 of ice, but it is much closer to a bigger deal.  Using there graphics up to a half an inch of rain falls with temperature VERY close to freezing in the wee hours Tuesday morning.

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well according to Pivotal Weather it only drops 0.14 of ice, but it is much closer to a bigger deal. Using there graphics up to a half an inch of rain falls with temperature VERY close to freezing in the wee hours Tuesday morning.

I think we are fine. No media is sounding the alarm, and dp's are climbing, so when precip starts, whenever that might be, temps at 31/32 will not drop because the air is saturating! If somehow, it's still 28-30 when heavier precip comes in, could be problematic
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I think we are fine. No media is sounding the alarm, and dp's are climbing, so when precip starts, whenever that might be, temps at 31/32 will not drop because the air is saturating! If somehow, it's still 28-30 when heavier precip comes in, could be problematic

agree.....I'm just not sure if there is "a" model we can trust even at this short range to handle the "wedge" correctly.  That being said, the met's at GSP have seen this time and time again and generally do a good job with CAD.

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I think we are fine. No media is sounding the alarm, and dp's are climbing, so when precip starts, whenever that might be, temps at 31/32 will not drop because the air is saturating! If somehow, it's still 28-30 when heavier precip comes in, could be problematic

 The NAM looks to be about a degree too warm with the temp at GSP, and two degrees too warm for the DP. Does it matter later? I guess that's the big question. :)

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If needed, GSP will sound the alarm. Either way, fun watching models since that is all this system has been for my area so far :)

 

agree.....I'm just not sure if there is "a" model we can trust even at this short range to handle the "wedge" correctly.  That being said, the met's at GSP have seen this time and time again and generally do a good job with CAD.

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Should we really be looking at models? looking at actural temps/winds trends? Seems like what will affect most of us in the upstate sc area is coming into auburn AL I think we should wait till that batch moves into Atlanta and take a hard look at temps and dew points. Really don't see this a a major event south of the state line.

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