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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.


lilj4425

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I would like to hear Lookouts final thoughts!?

Same. Looks like FFC is scared to make their final call. Whether to pull down the watches and issue advisories or to issue warnings. Really a no win situation for them, and very hard to forecast. I won't be surprised to see a winter weather advisory for Hall County-Northeast for the potential of morning freezing drizzle. I'll be surprised if they issue a warning at this point. 

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I think an alps runner would ok for us.

 

Perhaps, but for ice every storm I have seen needs to at least be below Macon for my area. (Near Gainesville, GA). With that being said you can tell the wedge is moving in. Stiff E winds and its clouding up. It'll be a close call.

 

Whooooosh!!

 

In other news, the snowfall is very intermittent here.  Occasional bursts of small flurries, then nothing for a while.  Still very cold and dry.

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Just Updated Winter Storm Warning Info From GSP Biggest Change I see is they went up on totals for all the Winter Storm Warned Counties from 2-4 inches to 4-6 inches Including The Foothills also ICE has went up from a tenth of a inch to a Quarter of a inch:

 

 

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1134 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINASAND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THECENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD MOISTUREINTO THIS COLD AIR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH COLD AND DRY AIRINITIALLY IN PLACE TONIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOWTHROUGHOUT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZINGRAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...BECOMING ALL RAININ MOST AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OFSNOW...SLEET...AND ICE MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERNMOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.NCZ033-035-049-050-501>506-150045-/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0004.160214T2300Z-160216T0500Z/AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...LENOIR...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...OLD FORT...MARION1134 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENINGTO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT...* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...SNOW...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND  FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH  MIDDAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET  MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN  BY MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM JUST  ABOVE FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6  INCHES... ALONG WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE FROM  FREEZING RAIN.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE FROM  FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND  POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE  HIGHER RIDGES.* TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 20S...BUT WARMING ABOVE FREEZING  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE...AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.&&$$
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JB afternoon update….

 

 

 

Not gong to pick on the GFS It forfeited its right to be in a serious discussion ( though yes it could be right now) when a few runs ago, it had this well to the east and was making a huge deal over the second system, The euro has been most consistent, but I still want to draw attention to where I think its wrong, My model of choice right now is the NAM

 

This is key because it is very unusual for a storm to start as snow in the piedmont, but wind up in the true warm sector . So the idea from a few days ago, describing the thermally induced reverse circulation and a 2 low track , one up to PIT, the other right up I-95 still holds. This is crucial since while this will go over to rain in the big cities, the I81 corridor to the crest of the Appalachians may be in for a major ice storm after 3-6 inches of snow. The other problem is that as the Euro starts realizing that its not going to 50 degrees in Harrisburg but is going to 55 in ACY, it will adjust the second feature east. In short I am trying to describe what I posted on back on Wednesday or Thursday

The GFS ensemble has no heavy ( over 8 inch) are on it) till pa NY) out side of the major snow event we have been stressing between I-40 and Ohio river indicating there is still plenty of confusion,

 

The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland, The result may be a monster mess in the piedmont .

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JB afternoon update….

 

 

 

Not gong to pick on the GFS It forfeited its right to be in a serious discussion ( though yes it could be right now) when a few runs ago, it had this well to the east and was making a huge deal over the second system, The euro has been most consistent, but I still want to draw attention to where I think its wrong, My model of choice right now is the NAM

 

This is key because it is very unusual for a storm to start as snow in the piedmont, but wind up in the true warm sector . So the idea from a few days ago, describing the thermally induced reverse circulation and a 2 low track , one up to PIT, the other right up I-95 still holds. This is crucial since while this will go over to rain in the big cities, the I81 corridor to the crest of the Appalachians may be in for a major ice storm after 3-6 inches of snow. The other problem is that as the Euro starts realizing that its not going to 50 degrees in Harrisburg but is going to 55 in ACY, it will adjust the second feature east. In short I am trying to describe what I posted on back on Wednesday or Thursday

The GFS ensemble has no heavy ( over 8 inch) are on it) till pa NY) out side of the major snow event we have been stressing between I-40 and Ohio river indicating there is still plenty of confusion,

 

The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland, The result may be a monster mess in the piedmont .

Mess, as in ice storm

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I'd think worse case scenario for GSP would be to have us under a WWA this afternoon, and could possibly be nothing? I guess you may need a wwa for freezing drizzle, but I'd say 10% chance we go under a warning

Tried to say this earlier in the week. West to East lows just don't perform well for the GSP area. It takes years of living here to know that.

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