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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.


lilj4425

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I think H is going to hug the NC/SC line. It won't reach into Henderson and Transylvania counties. Those are notorious CAD counties, even when areas around them are collapsing.

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I'm in the "G" section, and yesterday, I was convinced that we would see a substantial winter event. This morning.... just not feeling it as much. Going to be a day of short range model watching and looking at radar trends.

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we had a small batch of flurries move through.  it nailed the bulk of the precip that stayed to the s of wake.

I agree, but when I looked at it, it didn't show the showers that went through wake.  taken verbatim, wake would've not even seen snow flurries/showers.

 

so looking at HRRR now doesn't need to be taken verbatim.

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I think H is going to hug the NC/SC line. It won't reach into Henderson and Transylvania counties. Those are notorious CAD counties, even when areas around them are collapsing.

Heartily agree! I have seen many storms bust and those counties, and us here in Saluda NC, stay the course with the CAD. I think that D area needs a thin lobe to extend down into eastern Henderson. I'm actually worried this is a repeat of Feb 2010 when CAD kept Saluda and Flat rock NC just cold enough to jackpot with 8 inch icicles on everything and no power for 4 days. I remember wlos didn't even report on us for 36 hours as they didn't believe that an ice storm could be that localized...

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GSP has me with as much as 4-6 of snow an .25 of ice along the escarpment. They also think freezing temps will hang on longest along the escarpment, not good at all. Very scary situation up here. I trust GSP more than anything, them guys know there stuff.

They have me in the same general forecast with a winter storm warning. But from the talks on the forum that I have seen even us here with the warnings will get nothing to very little...

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I'd like to officially issue a BCW for our area. A BCW (Bored Children Watch) is issued whenever there is a high likelihood of children staying home from school for no reason, couped up inside because of cold rain, and driving parents batsh8t crazy.

Such a waste of record cold. This winter sucks.

Eh, I think the roads will be bad regardless of what we get because it has been so cold. Not impressed by how a lot of the modeling is now wanting to focus the overrunning up in S VA. That is our chance at snow... It's going to be mega-frustrating to watch all the overrunning hammering S VA and maybe even the border counties of NC with decent snow whole we twitter out thumbs and hope for flurries.

I'll be stubborn and stick with 1-3" SN/IP with 0.1-0.25" ZR, but I'm starting to wonder if I might need to cut that make to T-1".

Anyways, it is 22/-3. Not sure we make our forecasted high of 30 today.

EDIT: The 12z RGEM and GFS actually look a little better for us than the 6z runs, though. Guess we'll just have to watch the radar and see where the band sets up tonight.

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Why, folks are accurately interpreting the model runs and its not good news if you want more than a quick dusting to inch and then a little bit of sleet/zr east of I 77..

We'll see. All we know kw is there is potential. How much we actually get is yet to be determined. A couple of inches of snow and ice would be a big impact on the roads here Monday, and that is the typical storm we usually get here. I don't think it can be dismissed as not a big deal yet.

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I'm getting reports via FB that the snow falling in SW VA on radar IS reaching the ground. Already a dusting out that way.

When was it initially forecasted to start for that area? The sun is shining bright here but I did just notice that twc has now given us a 40% chance of snow showers for today. That wasn't there an hour ago, but we also have to take that with a grain of salt imo.
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I've noted folks lamenting school schedules tomorrow. Don't kids get off for President's Day anymore? Not that it really matters down here, with a smattering of ice likely, but I remember my young'un getting the day off back in the day.

 

...and soon as I post, I see Nic has the answer. Many thanks!

it is a makeup day for couple days missed last storm. I am in K'dale and we got a lot of ice, without power 2 days. Surprised my kids are still alive.

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Looks like much later precip onset ATL into NE GA lets temps & DP's get on up there, Greenville, SC and NE still possible for light icing. Rain washes it away. Waste of cold air.. Maybe around last week of the month for next opportunity,

waste of cold air in the Carolinas maybe. I'm at 44 degrees and may reach 50 today. No cold air around here !
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