franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z gfs para was weak. It gets the surface low to North Alabama but it's so weak 1012 mb. It then goes east of the mtns. Kicker wave behind in looks stout. 6z Nam lost its cutter/runner idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If the lows that were projected to be last night were any indication, the cold is not nearly as strong as progged. Our low was forecast to be 19 and it was 26 so it busted pretty bad. Edited to add that this is either not as cold of air as predicted OR it is a little late coming in. Winds were howling last night pretty good. Didn't get the max radiation cooling . To much mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So you're not thinking any snow at all hmmm Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk it will start as snow but the main show is ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Would love to know Matt East's thoughts as I trust him, certainly a lot more than Robert or JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 how quickly are the various models moving the high off the coast in the NE? Is that timing basically the same for all of them? Is the GGEM slow thus the reason for the colder solution or are they all variations of in situ CAD? I can go and look myself, just wondered if anyone has evaluated it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 how quickly are the various models moving the high off the coast in the NE? Is that timing basically the same for all of them? Is the GGEM slow thus the reason for the colder solution or are they all variations of in situ CAD? I can go and look myself, just wondered if anyone has evaluated it already. 6z GFS , held it onshore a little longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 how quickly are the various models moving the high off the coast in the NE? Is that timing basically the same for all of them? Is the GGEM slow thus the reason for the colder solution or are they all variations of in situ CAD? I can go and look myself, just wondered if anyone has evaluated it already. Here is the 06Z Nam run to give you a idea how fast the high scoots out.... here it is almost in a perfect spot for the SE and then next frame it is way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 how quickly are the various models moving the high off the coast in the NE? Is that timing basically the same for all of them? Is the GGEM slow thus the reason for the colder solution or are they all variations of in situ CAD? I can go and look myself, just wondered if anyone has evaluated it already. the biggest difference I see in the cmc is it digs are wave slightly farther south than the other models. So you get a surface reflection in southern Alabama instead of northern Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Would love to know Matt East's thoughts as I trust him, certainly a lot more than Robert or JB He's been on this storm since 2/1 and has not changed his forecast at all even with the lack of model consistency. I assume nothing has changed for him. Would love to hear his thoughts as well. My favorite local met by far and appreciate his free videos and post here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 so as of now the GGEM stands basically alone with the extreme cold. It keeps the wedge firmly locked in well into Tuesday for the Upstate and NE Ga (upper to 20's to boot) GFS has taken a baby step to a colder, wetter solution. I can say one thing the Canadian has been rock solid in it's solution. Seems to be getting more extreme each run. I hope it is wrong at least regarding QPF. It's not alone. Have u seen the rgem? The best cad model out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 For RDU/wake county folks, just an idea of how far off the NAM and GFS are on temps at onset of heaviest precip we get from the system. This is for RDU airport. I'm not touching this storm until later tonight or tomorrow, see everyone then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam is flying in with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 He's been on this storm since 2/1 and has not changed his forecast at all even with the lack of model consistency. I assume nothing has changed for him. Would love to hear his thoughts as well. My favorite local met by far and appreciate his free videos and post here.. He'll chime in sometime today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 6z GFS , held it onshore a little longer Here is the 06Z Nam run to give you a idea how fast the high scoots out.... here it is almost in a perfect spot for the SE and then next frame it is way east the biggest difference I see in the cmc is it digs are wave slightly farther south than the other models. So you get a surface reflection in southern Alabama instead of northern Alabama. thanks guys Man that high is booking. huge difference in location in just 3 hours. There just seems to be so much difference in 2M temps between the cmc and all of the others. So Franklin, you think it is mostly attributed to the location of the low? Which would imply if the other models started to trend south, we could expect temps similar to what the CMC is advertising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam 06z Rgem 06z Gfs 06z Rgem is better than the nam hands down. And look how cold it is. And it makes sense for it to be further south with a colder cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I would hope the 12z would be better since the system is now on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 thanks guys Man that high is booking. huge difference in location in just 3 hours. There just seems to be so much difference in 2M temps between the cmc and all of the others. So Franklin, you think it is mostly attributed to the location of the low? Which would imply if the other models started to trend south, we could expect temps similar to what the CMC is advertising? yes, the farther south the low, the less waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's not alone. Have u seen the rgem? The best cad model out there? No, what's a good site for the rgem? I thought it only went out to 48 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 No, what's a good site for the rgem? I thought it only went out to 48 hr tropical tidbits has good maps for it but it only goes out to 4rs. On meteorcentre.com (its the RDPS beside CMC) it goes out to 54 hrs on 06z and 18z only And Rgem is colder than CMC or NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM soundings say it's just about ready to snow at HKY by 7PM tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 overrunning moisture is in VA. If we can get that to shift south... Anyway, the HP is hanging on a bit more and a tick stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LKN Winter WX Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Man, our high just books it out of the NE from Hrs 45 to 48 on the 12z NAM.. Thought it was going to hold on longer vs. the 06z Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM soundings say it's just about ready to snow at HKY by 7PM tomorrow night. Thats the key rally, need the over running to crank up sooner, you get precip falling into a air mass like that and it will lock it in especially out that way. Need this to not be a strong low and just keep everything moving east...not gonna happen though and we waste the best air mass of the year so far. Love how the high is perfectly ridged in for solid hit and then the heights jump up and the ridging shifts offshore and its see ya later cold air.....one has to wonder how much that would change if any if there was a lot of precip into the colder air earlier perfect ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z man low track is close to the cmc. Kicker wave is alive and well,on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 another near miss for the Upstate and NE Ga on the 12z NAM. Copious moisture (over and inch) at 33 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Tweet on the cmc Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/698515342784655361?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 another near miss for the Upstate and NE Ga on the 12z NAM. Copious moisture (over and inch) at 33 F. Again, if it's no gonna be snow or sleet, 33 and rain is a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS para looks like a nice front end hit, especially in the foothills and NW piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Again, if it's no gonna be snow or sleet, 33 and rain is a good thing! Agreed. The last thing I want is ZR and my power being out for a week. Bring on 33 and rain I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.