hudsonvalley21 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'll gladly take 6-8 hour frozen event followed by heavy rain and wind, especially this crappy winter up here With temps around zero tonight the ground temps will make an icy go tomorrow night even it it changes over to rain. Current temp 6 dpt -8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 In these kinds of setups, my experience has been that the upper levels warm faster than modeled leading to an earlier change to ice than expected. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 With temps around zero tonight the ground temps will make an icy go tomorrow night even it it changes over to rain. Regardless of what happens, this will be the most snow some of us have seen up here, so I'm not being picky, it will look wintry tomorrow evening and I'm looking fowaRd to it, Tuesday rain can come Idc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Upton just increased totals on its WWA as of 958 also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Regardless of what happens, this will be the most snow some of us have seen up here, so I'm not being picky, it will look wintry tomorrow evening and I'm looking fowaRd to it, Tuesday rain can come Idc lol For sure we will take it. Have to watch trees and power lines with snow some zr then rain adding weight to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 For sure we will take it. Have to watch trees and power lines with snow some zr then rain adding weight to them. Just had my generac propane gen installed last week, whole house is wired to it, so I'll welcome an outage lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Upton just increased totals on its WWA as of 958 alsoLooks the same to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Rgem is not enthused about snow totals, before the changeover 1-2 for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks the same to me Orange counties WWA was updated at 958 from 2-4 to 2-5 and added more ice totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just had my generac propane gen installed last week, whole house is wired to it, so I'll welcome an outage lol. Good move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweisenfeld Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Upton just increased totals on its WWA as of 958 also They kept our totals down here the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Eh not sure who thought rgem was good, but snow wise it's Def worse than nam, decent mixing for interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just had my generac propane gen installed last week, whole house is wired to it, so I'll welcome an outage lol what did that cost ya? I have gas heat so can hook one up to the gas supply, my gasoline generator is all varnished up because you can't run it out for some reason. WIth Irene, Snowtober and Sandy power outages have become a nasty reality in these parts. We usually avoid the ice tho with a quick changeover to rain in these parts. I've seen these set ups before and if it follows past patterns, there will be enough snow to muck things up and send the plows and salters out before the changeover. I think we will be good for 3 or so before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 what did that cost ya? I have gas heat so can hook one up to the gas supply, my gasoline generator is all varnished up because you can't run it out for some reason. WIth Irene, Snowtober and Sandy power outages have become a nasty reality in these parts. We usually avoid the ice tho with a quick changeover to rain in these parts. I've seen these set ups before and if it follows past patterns, there will be enough snow to muck things up and send the plows and salters out before the changeover. I think we will be good for 3 or so before changeover. Generator was 2500, my buddy is an electrician so I didn't pay install, I'm sure it would be about 500 for install atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yea rgem kinda blows Insane temp gradient tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Generator was 2500, my buddy is an electrician so I'm sure it would be about 500 for install atleast That is very reasonable, I was thinking it would be a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs is really ugly, changes everyone over to rain pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Within 6 hours rain lines from NYC to albany...insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs is really ugly, changes everyone over to rain pretty quick Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs and rgem are identical in terms of front end totals....nam is the outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 NYC is 1", burbs are 1-2, and extreme burbs are 2-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs and rgem are identical in terms of front end totals....nam is the outlier Radar looks good. Doorman may be on to something.1-3 is a good call. I wouldnt use the gfs this close. We have really cold temps right now. Any precip that falls will stick right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs and rgem are identical in terms of front end totals....nam is the outlier 1.5 to 2 inches would be fine with me. At least we'll get to enjoy a snowy scene during the afternoon, before the big rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Radar looks good. Doorman may be on to something.1-3 is a good call. I wouldnt use the gfs this close. We have really cold temps right now. Any precip that falls will stick right away. Yea I would normally dismiss it but the rgem is usually pretty reliable this close, another now cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Ggem same story as rgem and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 take a look here loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-wvvor-25 I am looking for an early start to the snowfall Upton says 2pm..lets see http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=80&y=201&site=okx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=80&map_y=201#.VsFQN0KVv8s ------------------ Relative Humidity the amount of water vapor present in air expressed as a percentage of the amount needed for saturation at the same temperature. radar http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=VA_WV-rad-0-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 From a travel safety perspective, this is where getting an inch or two of snow, especially on paved surfaces, could be a saving grace for travelers, as the freezing rain would simply be absorbed into the snow, whereas if we get little to now snow, the freezing rain could simply coat all cold surfaces, forming skating rinks, especially on untreated/lightly traveled surfaces, especially since the freezing rain is predicted to be after dark, so the indirect sunlight won't provide any melting. The preceding assumes the period of freezing rain would last the same amount of time regardless of how much snow falls (which may not be the case). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRRRRR...RRRR getting more crappy with every run, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Ggem same story as rgem and gfsUkie and Euro are in the GFS, RGEM, GGEM camp now too, 1-2 inches, then quick change to rain for the area is the way to go. Euro still very warm and west, Ukie ticked west a bit too. The NAM is all alone now, big outlier, expect it to shift to the consensus at 6z. RAP and HRRR look pretty unimpressive for the area so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yes rap and HRRR say less than an inch for everyone here, very light snow for about 3 hours then almost instant change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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