UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 06z nam 06zGFS Huge difference.. Have a feeling as we get closer, models will speed this event up, as they hinted last night, or the nam will be on its own again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The trailing shortwave is very interesting. You can see it here at hr 120 over MS/AL. If that can catch up, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Seeing the UKMET this amped up tells me that this doesn't have much room to come much further East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like gfs is having a hard time with low placement around hour 108. When does the storm reach land out west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like gfs is having a hard time with low placement around hour 108. When does the storm reach land out west? Energy that develops the storm downstream hits the coast Saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The trailing shortwave is very interesting. You can see it here at hr 120 over MS/AL. If that can catch up, watch out. Watch out for what? Heavier rains and higher wind gusts? IMO if that trailing s/w ties into the lead s/w it does nothing more than wrap the system up even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 "the system needs to be sampled on land" is a myth now. satellite data is good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Seeing the UKMET this amped up tells me that this doesn't have much room to come much further East I expect to see shifts West with this one based on the pos nao, trending neg epo, trending neg pna, and trending pos ao as well as the overall seasonal trends to adjust N and W with most storm systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I expect to see shifts West with this one based on the pos nao, trending neg epo, trending neg pna, and trending pos ao as well as the overall seasonal trends to adjust N and W with most storm systems. I agree with all except "seasonal trends" There's nothing scientific that supports seasonal model trends to bring storm a certain direction based of length and proximity, merely coincidence IMO... There's no trend.. GFS started well east, went west, came back slightly, and is now the furthest west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Fwiw, nam continues to be much quicker and further east of most guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I agree with all except "seasonal trends" There's nothing scientific that supports seasonal model trends to bring storm a certain direction based of length and proximity, merely coincidence IMO... There's no trend.. GFS started well east, went west, came back slightly, and is now the furthest west I can agree with this.....toss the "seasonal trend NW trend" I guess. Still strong hints that this has West written all over just based on the teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I can agree with this.....toss the "seasonal trend NW trend" I guess. Still strong hints that this has West written all over just based on the teleconnections. I would agree, I don't see the city, or even myself as an all snow, but a snow to mix back to snow is still in the cards for some of the interior, and a snow to rain back to snow is still possible for cosst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Tail end of the nam so far is signals a MUCH further east solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 keep wishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Tail end of the nam so far is signals a MUCH further east solution I just keep thinking, "It's the NAM." Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I just keep thinking, "It's the NAM." Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk People been saying it's just the nam all year, and have been burnt twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Tail end of the nam so far is signals a MUCH further east solution Good front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Fwiw, nam continues to be much quicker and further east of most guidance It's barely at the beginning of the storm at 84 hours though. No strong cold, high anywhere to be found to save the day either. If it went out to 96, it would probably show all rain at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's barely at the beginning of the storm at 84 hours though. No strong cold, high anywhere to be found to save the day either. If it went out to 96, it would probably show all rain. GFS Nam Please don't mistaken my intention, I'm in no way saying the nams def correct, or will finish, I am however pointing out that the nam is MUCH faster with the storm (which is what we would need) similar to last nights GGEM.. As oppose to euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 make sure to check 2m temps as well. NAM has rain for most of the area at 84. (except for NW corner NJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 make sure to check 2m temps as well. NAM has rain for most of the area at 84. (except for NW corner NJ) Most of the area? U mean NYC and Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 And 850s are between -4 and -8 for most.. It's not rain at 84 sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS image.png Namimage.png Please don't mistaken my intention, I'm in no way saying the nams def correct, or will finish, I am however pointing out that the nam is MUCH faster with the storm (which is what we would need) similar to last nights GGEM.. As oppose to euro and gfs The initial over running is often faster and I think the NAM is starting to show that. Doesn't mean we stay all snow, but odds increasing that we see something on the front end before a change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nam is not phasing thus the result is more front end snow and less overall precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS fairly south and a bit east of 06z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 gfs so far is much colder at 75hr compared to 81hr of 6z. 540 line goes from atlantic city (6z)...to virginia (12z). 2m temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is wayyyyyy south and east so far, I think this may be a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 06z had the low over TN, now it tracks down over GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS quite a bit snowier this run. Nice front end thump for the western part of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 By hr 93 it's already raining up into Upstate NY. It's a terrible setup for snow at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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